(預告: 2018年9月30日信報月刊發表全文) 香港經過了三個月的土地大辯論,各界不斷激辯,主因當然是由於香港的樓價貴得驚人,已經連續八年成為世界最不能負擔的樓價。政府卻不准討論貨幣政策、按揭政策或人口政策,只准討論從那裡找尋增加土地供應的方法,政府認定增加土地供應就是壓抑樓價上升的唯一方法,卻從未科學論證。 相反,已有不少學術研究證明樓價上升與信貸供應增加有關 (Favara and Imbs, 2015;Justiniano, Primiceri and Tambalotti, 2015),自從2008年的國際金融風暴,全球央行大幅減息及進行量化寬鬆,導致世界各地的房產價格上升。今年8月初,經濟學人分析了全球22個城市的樓價變化,過去5年只有2個城市的樓價下跌,其餘20個城市均出現不同程度的樓價上升(圖1),而香港的升幅只有39.3%,屬一般升幅;其餘有11個城市的樓價升幅比香港為高,反映樓價上升受全球低息引致的信貸增長及資本流動所影響,並非個別城市的土地供應問題所能改變大局。 The Economist (2018) Global cities house-price index, Aug 9, https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2018/08/09/global-cities-house-price-index Richter and Werner (2016) 指出外來資本流入可從四種渠道推升樓價,包括外資直接購房、直接或間接的信貸供應增加及維持低息環境。已有多份研究顯示外來直接投資或資本流入對樓價有推升影響,其中包括美國 (Sa and Wieladek, 2011),英國 (Sa, 2017)、澳洲 (Fereidouni and Tajaddini, 2016; Guest and Rohde, 2017; Wokker and Swlerings, 2016);新興經濟體 (Ghollpour, 2013;Tillmann, 2013);東盟、新加坡和香港 (Yiu and Sahminan, 2017;Chow and Xie, 2016;Cheung et al., 2017)。 -------------- Cheung, Y.W., Chow, K.K. and Yiu, M.S. (2017) Effects of Capital Flow on the Equity and Housing Markets in Hong Kong, HKIMR Working Paper #01/2017, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research. http://www.hkimr.org/uploads/publication/455/wp201701.pdf Chow, H.K. and Xie, T. (2016) Are House Prices Driven by Capital Flows? Evidence from Singapore, Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy, 7(1), 1-21. http://doi.org/10.1142/S179399331650006X Favara, G. and Imbs, J. (2015) Credit Supply and the Price of Housing, The American Economic Review 105(3), 958-992. Fereidouni, H.G. and Tajaddini, R. (2016) Foreign Investment in Residential Real Estate in Australia, Housing Prices and Performance of Real Estate-Related Sectors, 22nd International Panel Data Conference, 28-20 June, Perth, Australia. http://businesslaw.curtin.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2016/07/panel-data-conference-foreign-investment-in-residential-real-estate-in-australia-housing-prices-and-performance-of-real-estate-related-sectors.pdf Ghollpour, H.F. (2013) The effect of foreign real estate investments on house prices: evidence from emerging economies, International Jourrnal of Strategic Property Management 17(1), https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.3846/1648715X.2013.765523 Guest, Ross S. and Rohde, Nicholas (2017) The Contribution of Foreign Real Estate Investment to Housing Price Growth in Australian Capital Cities (September). Abacus, Vol. 53, Issue 3, pp. 304-318. Available at SSRN: https://ssrn.com/abstract=3039755 Justiniano, A., Primiceri, G.E. and Tambalotti, A. (2015) Credit Supply and the Housing Boom, Federal Reserve Bank of New York – Staff Report No. 709, Feb. https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/staff_reports/sr709.pdf Richter, M. and Werner, J.G. (2016) Conceptualising the Role of International Capital Flows for Housing Markets, Intereconomics, 1-9. DOI: 10.1007/s10272-016-0593-z Sa, S,F. and Wieladek, T. (2011) Monetary Policy, Capital Inflows, and the Housing Boom, Working Paper No. 80, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, US. https://www.dallasfed.org/~/media/documents/institute/wpapers/2011/0080.pdf Sa, F. (2017) Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK, working paper, School of Management & Business, Kingís College London. https://www.kcl.ac.uk/sspp/research/economics/People/FIlipaPaper-June2017.pdf Tillmann, P. (2013), Capital Inflows and Asset Prices: Evidence from Emerging Asia, Journal of Banking and Finance, 37, 717-729. Wokker, C. and Swlerings, J. (2016) Foreign Investment and Residential Property Price Growth, Treasury Working Paper 2016-03, Australian Government. https://www.rse.anu.edu.au/media/1845323/Swieringa-Paper-2017.pdf Yiu, M.S. and Sahminan, S. (2017) Global Liquidity, Capital Inflows and House Prices in ASEAN Economies, International Real Estate Review, 20(1), 105-126.