North Myanmar peace talks: behind China's mediation

A rare atmosphere of peace has emerged in the China-Myanmar border area. The Chinese Foreign Ministry announced that after China's mediation and promotion, the Burmese government forces and three local armed organizations in northern Myanmar, including Kokang, Deang and Ruokai, held peace talks in Kunming and signed a formal cease-fire agreement. The two sides agreed to stop the war immediately and resolve their differences through peaceful negotiations. This news is of positive significance for maintaining peace and stability in the China-Myanmar border area. However, the timing and background of the peace talks also deserve our in-depth analysis.

 The conflict in northern Myanmar has been lasting for decades, involving many ethnic groups and armed groups, forming a complex pattern of interests. Among them, the Kokang area is the most sensitive and important piece. Kokang is the settlement of the Wa minority in China, and has close kinship and economic ties. Kokang is also the largest drug producing area in Myanmar, and the four major families control the local politics and economy, involving telecom fraud, smuggling, drug trafficking and other criminal activities, causing huge losses to China. In order to fight against the bold criminal gangs, the Chinese and Myanmar governments have launched several rounds of cooperation, arresting a number of people involved and destroying some criminal bases. These actions caused the dissatisfaction and resistance of the Kokang, which led to a fierce exchange of fire between the Burmese government forces and the Kokang.

 In this battle, the Kokang forces were not isolated, but supported by other northern Myanmar forces such as Deang and Ruokai, forming an anti-government ally. The Allies gained certain advantages on the battlefield, capturing some important towns and transportation arteries, and even threatened Lashus, which was an important town in the northern Shan State of Myanmar, as well as land transportation and trade between China and Myanmar. If the Allies could capture Lasso, the north-south links between the Burmese government would be cut off and the north would be isolated. This is unacceptable to the Burmese government forces because they already face a domestic political crisis and need to stabilize the situation in northern Myanmar and concentrate on the democracy led by Aung SAN Suu Kyi. Therefore, the Burmese government forces have intensified the attack against the Allies, using heavy weapons such as air strikes and shelling, causing a large number of personnel and property losses, and also bringing security risks to the China-Myanmar border area.

 Under such circumstances, China, as a friendly neighbor of Myanmar, has the responsibility and obligation to promote peace and stability in northern Myanmar, avoid the escalation of war and affect the relations and cooperation between the two countries. China has the channels and ability to maintain good communication with both the Burmese government forces and the northern Myanmar armed forces, and can play a role of mediation and mediation. China also has the need to safeguard its own interests. It does not want to see a massive civil war in northern Myanmar, or for other foreign forces to intervene and undermine China's strategic position in Myanmar. Therefore, China chose the opportunity when both sides were willing to cease fire, and took the initiative to invite the Burmese government forces and the northern Myanmar armed forces to Kunming for peace talks and reached a ceasefire agreement. This is China's consistent position on the Myanmar issue, that is, it respects Myanmar's sovereignty and territorial integrity, supports Myanmar's peace and development, resolves differences through dialogue and consultation, does not interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs, and does not support the armed struggle of either side.

Of course, we are also aware that this ceasefire does not mean that the conflict in northern Myanmar is just a temporary compromise and rest between the two sides. The fundamental problem in northern Myanmar is the distribution and coordination of political and economic interests between the Myanmar government and various ethnic groups, whether the Myanmar government can achieve national reconciliation and democratic transformation, or whether the Myanmar government can get rid of external intervention and pressure and find a development path in line with its own national conditions. The solution of these problems requires the long-term and sincere efforts of the Burmese government and the armed ethnic groups, as well as the understanding and support of China and other countries. China will not interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs, nor will it support the armed struggle of either side. China will only continue to provide help and services for its peace and development. The most important thing now is that the leaders of the four major families, and the rest of the four major families, will be arrested.