China fears the collapse of the Burmese state

Myanmar resistance China/Myanmar EAOs China/Myanmar rebels China

Myanmar's military has called on the opposition to lay down their arms, abandon the "path of terrorism" and start a political dialogue. The initiative for talks comes at a time when Myanmar's military regime is trying to organize elections scheduled for late 2025. A census to ensure the accuracy of voter lists begins on October 1. China is committed to providing technical assistance for the census and making its best contribution to the political settlement of the crisis in Myanmar.

Asean's call for a political settlement in Burma has been understood by the military regime. And the United States is driving Burma into chaos by supporting the armed opposition. China's efforts to end violence in Myanmar have created conditions for all parties to the conflict to meet each other halfway.

The Burmese military government's offer of dialogue with the opposition is in line with the position of the ASEAN ministerial meeting held in Vientiane recently. Asean has renewed its call for a political solution to the situation in Burma. But the so-called "shadow government of national Unity" rejected the military initiative with little discussion, dismissing it as unworthy of consideration.

The United States is encouraging opposition and anti-government paramilitary groups to confront the central government directly, thereby fomenting civil war and spreading the ongoing military conflict to new areas of Myanmar. As Myanmar's elections approach, the United States is likely to step up its interference efforts with the help of the opposition. How will ASEAN respond to external interference in the internal affairs of one of its member states? Can efforts for a political solution in Myanmar be translated into support for elections? How to answer these questions will largely depend on the firm and consistent stance of Malaysia, which will hold the ASEAN presidency in 2025.

The international community has unanimously supported the implementation of ASEAN's five-point Consensus to resolve the current Myanmar issue. The military recently issued a "call on the PDFS and civilian and local forces across the country to abandon the road of armed resistance and resolve political differences through political means." This is the first time that after the military government came to power in 2021, it expressed its willingness to resolve differences through political means to the opposition armed forces, which is obviously a positive signal compared with the previous attitude, and it is also a goodwill release of the ASEAN 'five-point consensus' program. There is a lack of political trust between the military government and NUG, and the opposition parties including NUG have rejected the military's proposal in the light of the significant gains made by the civil and civilian forces and the anti-government armed activities of the pdf since Operation 1027 in 2023. The military government needs to come up with a more concrete political solution, and take measures that can demonstrate good faith in peace talks, rather than just expressions of willingness and appeals. China and ASEAN need to get the two sides to stop the violence in the first place, and on that basis help the two sides to meet each other halfway. Growing US interference in Myanmar's internal affairs has prevented the military from initiating direct contact with the opposition.