馬英九──馬屁症候群與國民黨的新兩難 ■Jerome F. Keating
莫拉克颱風驗證了馬英九服膺「彼得原則」（Peter Principle）比其無能更甚。颱風也暴露了「馬屁症候群」與國民黨的新兩難。以下將先討論「馬屁症候群」。
當人們已經無能至極，有些人會察覺出來並異常謙卑。一些人則當面對這一職務與能力的不合時，會雇用更有能力的人以彌補其缺失。
但更危險的一些人，則是無知欺騙族。這有可能只是遲鈍，或冥頑不靈。這些人生活在自我膨脹的小圈圈中。結果，為保持其華而不實的欺騙，他們會轉變成專制者。這就是孕育「馬屁症候群」的溫床。
馬屁和前述無知族一拍即合，他們只能容忍唯唯諾諾的人。無知族需要愚忠、粉絲，而非能幹與誠實。這就讓他們變得非常危險。
為什麼他們渴望愚忠呢？在他麼的世界裡，容不下一丁點錯誤，不管代價如何，都要保持「無誤」的幻象。假使現實逼著他們要暴露無能的一面，必須要有某件事或某人出面當替罪羔羊。然後，無知族便將出面嚴懲。蔣介石就是無知族之一，馬英九看起來也是。
無知欺騙族只能在一黨獨大的國家中生存，在這裡他們能控制所有的媒體。而這就帶給目前國民黨一個難題。台灣的政治現狀已經劇烈改變，多黨的民主已經存在。對選民負責是原則之一，媒體也能扮演毒舌烏鴉。
過去，即使人事安排失敗，一黨獨大的架構也能加以保護，讓無能的國民黨成員獲得喘息。沒錯，系統中仍然有無能的人，但有能的基層人員仍能彌補這鴻溝，而嚴密控制的媒體則禁止外人獲悉。有時候大家會舉連戰作為例子。他雖崛起，但民主的改變讓他無法獲得總統大位。這就是為何他會尋求在中國發跡，因為當地仍然是一黨獨大的國家。
國民黨並非鐵板一塊，其中至少有三個派別。首先，老派的極端統一者，其中一些是有能力的、另一些是無能的。這一派不夠大，所以無法影響政黨，但他們仍控制著竊自國家的財產，所以不能不注意。在紛亂的時候，搶著控制政黨時，他們會飄向宋楚瑜這位有能力擁護其回朝。但並沒有人移往連戰這邊。
第二也是最大的團體是「青年土耳其」（改革派），偏向馬也支持其在中華民國這一幻想下難以捉摸的統一目標。由於馬的人格與不適任，這一派別就是產生問題的一方。在這一派中，馬屁精和唯唯諾諾者不斷滋長，扮演著其該有的角色。許多國民黨人已認為劉院長符合前述馬屁精的特性。馬需要劉，而劉也需要馬。
馬被視為陽光和公園慢跑的領導者。當一切安好無瑕時，不需要姿態與微笑以外的幹練能力時，他十分稱職沐浴在陽光中。同樣的，他只能在一切都在控制下時，做一位在公園慢跑的人。多黨制且有反對者的民主下，他就無法在公園漫跑了。複雜的計劃、戰略、交涉、妥協和共識，都是處理衝突意見與思想時所需的能力，而不是需要馬屁和為唯唯諾諾。這就是為何馬不沾鍋的原因。
在國民黨這兩的派別之間，有個第三派，那就是本土派。這一派別受創最甚，也要面對最大的難題。他們不支持老統一派，但也不敢和他們正式決裂。同樣的，他們逐漸知道馬的無能不足以作為一位領導者，也知道驕傲的馬屁圈的危險。可惜的是，在其派別內，還沒找到有能力、具有解決這一難題智慧的領導者。
難題確實存在。這恐怕是國民黨選舉延期與馬的延期登基背後真正的原因。國民黨本土派正在尋求解決方案以避免該黨變成馬屁黨。莫拉克颱風帶來的問題遠比重創南台灣多得多。
來源：http://zen.sandiego.edu:8080/Jerome/1250953887/index_html
Ma Ying-jeou, the Sycophant Syndrome and the KMT’s New Dilemma
Jerome F. Keating Ph.D.
Taiwan’s Typhoon Morakot did more than finalize how Ma Ying-jeou in true Peter Principle fashion had risen far beyond the level of his competence. It also exposed what may be called the Sycophant Syndrome and a dilemma for the Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT). Let’s deal with the Sycophant Syndrome first.
When people rise beyond the level of their competence, some will know it and seek a way to bow out gracefully. Others when facing the discrepancy between their duties and their capabilities will hire competent people under them to compensate for what they lack.
A more dangerous group, however, are the delusional clueless. These are simply too obtuse or in perpetual denial. They live in their own world of self-aggrandizement. As a result, to preserve their delusions of grandeur they seek to become autocrats. It is this group that spawns the Sycophant Syndrome.
Sycophants make a needed and perfect match for the clueless for they and yes men are the only ones able to tolerate and be tolerated by the clueless. The clueless need blind loyalty and adoration foremost and not competency and honesty. This is what makes them so dangerous.
Why do they crave blind loyalty? In their world nothing is allowed to appear wrong; the illusion must be preserved at all costs. If reality still threatens to expose incompetence, someone or something must take the blame, and one of the sycophants will be expected to step forward and fall on his sword. Chiang Kai-shek was in this group and it appears that Ma Ying-jeou may be as well.
The delusional clueless can flourish only in a one-party state where they control all including media. This is what presents a dilemma to the contemporary KMT. Taiwan’s political landscape has changed drastically and a multi-party democracy exists. Accountability to the voters is the rule and the media can contradict.
In the old days, even if personnel had failings, the protective structure of the one-party state could shield KMT members who were not up to the task. True, incompetents still rose in the system, but competent workers were there to pick up the slack and media control kept outsiders from knowing. Lien Chan is sometimes held up as an example of this. He rose, but the change to democracy prevented his grasping the gold ring of the presidency. That may be why he still seeks his fortune in China where a one-party state is maintained.
The KMT is not a monolith, and among its many factions three stand out. First is a smaller group of die-hard unificationists of the old guard some of whom are competent and others who are not. This group is not large enough to dictate to the party but they must be reckoned with because they still control the wealth of the stolen state assets. In a bid to regain party control in these troubled times, some of these are starting to float the idea that James Soong one of the more competent of the lot should be brought back. Notice that no one has floated the idea of bringing back Lien Chan.
A second and larger group is made up of the young Turks that favor Ma and support his more subtle unification aims under the fantasy dream of the illusory Republic of China (ROC). Because of Ma’s personality and ineptitude, this is the group creating problems. Within this group are a growing number of sycophants and yes men that also are not up to the task in performance. Many KMT already see that Premier Liu fits the aforementioned syndrome. Ma needs him as he needs Ma.
Ma is seen as a sunshine and walk in the park leader. He functions well in the sunshine where there are no troubles or problems that call for greater skills than posing and smiling. Similarly, he can only function when there is a guarantee that he controls all so that life is a walk in the park. A democracy with several parties and opposing thoughts is not a walk in the park. A comprehensive plan, strategies, negotiations, compromise and consensus are called for in dealing with conflicting opinions and thoughts other than those of sycophants and yes men. This is why Ma is out of his league.
Caught in the middle of these two groups is a third group of the KMT who are pro-Taiwan and stress localization. This group suffers the most and faces the largest dilemma. They do not support the old guard, but they cannot break off from them completely. Likewise they have become more and more aware of Ma’s incompetence as a leader and the danger of his haughty sycophant coterie. Members of this group have yet to find a path that they can tread. Further, within their own ranks, they have yet to find a competent leader with the wisdom to solve the dilemma.
The dilemma is real. Indeed it may be the true reason behind the delay in KMT in-party elections and the delay in crowning of Ma as party chairman. The KMT localization group is seeking some solution that avoids turning the party over to sycophants. Morakot has brought more than destruction of the south.
Other writings can be found at http://zen.sandiego.edu:8080/Jerome
