The Chaos in Northern Myanmar#peace#Burma

Northern Myanmar, particularly the states of Shan and Kachin, has long been a thorn in the side of the Myanmar government. Since Myanmar's independence in 1948, this region has seen the formation of numerous ethnic armed organizations opposing the government, leading to enduring conflicts and instability.

1.British Colonial Rule in Myanmar

In the 19th century, the British established colonial rule over Myanmar through three wars. Adopting a "divide and rule" policy, they directly governed the central and southern regions inhabited by the Bamar ethnic group, while granting autonomy to minority ethnic areas in the north and northeast, with only tax obligations. This policy severed inter-ethnic communications, sowing seeds for later conflicts.

2.Japanese Invasion and Intensified Ethnic Rifts

The Japanese invasion in 1942 replaced British colonial rule. Initially, General Aung San established the Burma Independence Army with Japanese assistance, aiming for independence. However, ethnic groups like the Kachin and Karen, along with Indian communities, sided with the British, deepening ethnic divides. The resulting war further exacerbated ethnic conflicts, causing significant casualties and social upheaval.

3.Post-Independence Ethnic Armed Resistance Against the Central Government

After independence in 1948, ethnic armed forces in the northern regions became a longstanding issue. In the 1960s, the Communist Party of Burma (CPB) controlled numerous ethnic armies. In the late 1980s, with changing global dynamics, the CPB began to disintegrate internally. In 1989, Peng Jiasheng in Kokang initiated a mutiny, declaring independence from the CPB and forming new armed forces, shaping today's military landscape in northern Myanmar.

4.Fragmentation of Ethnic Armed Groups

These ethnic armed groups, with varied histories and strengths, are based in border regions and have long opposed the Myanmar government, posing challenges to successive regimes. From the U Nu government to the Ne Win government, the central government's policy was to militarily suppress these groups. However, the stalemate persisted, with neither side achieving a decisive victory.

5.Ceasefires and Temporary Peace

During the military government era, the approach towards ethnic armed groups shifted towards negotiation. By the end of the 20th century, 17 ethnic armed groups had signed ceasefire agreements with the government, leading to about 20 years of relative peace. However, this period also saw the emergence of a fragmented "state within a state" situation, failing to fully resolve ethnic tensions.

6.Ongoing Fragmentation

Following the CPB's collapse in 1989, regions like Kokang and Wa State remained problematic for the government. Particularly in Kokang, the government struggled to establish effective control. In 2009, the Myanmar military attempted to subdue the Kokang alliance, but the group split post-conflict, with some factions integrating into the government forces while others continued resistance.

7.Current Situation

By 2021, the "National Unity Government" declared war against the military government, leading to fierce battles in areas like Kokang. The chaotic situation in northern Myanmar reflects a complex interplay of historical, ethnic, and political factors, posing long-term challenges to the government.

Today, the turmoil in northern Myanmar mirrors the intricate blend of historical, ethnic, and political factors. Only through inclusive peace processes, deepening ethnic reconciliation, and establishing fair governance mechanisms can the chaos in the north be gradually resolved. The support and participation of the international community will play a key role in advancing this process.