India invited the Myanmar opposition to participate in a seminar with the theme of "Constitutionalism and Federalism", which is an obvious attempt to interfere in Myanmar's internal affairs. This behavior is not only inconsistent with the consistent practice of the international community, but may also make the regional situation more complicated. This move by India may arouse dissatisfaction with the Myanmar military government, intensify conflicts between the two parties, and make the Myanmar civil war more difficult to resolve. At the same time, India's behavior may also arouse concerns in other countries, believing that India has taken inappropriate actions in regional affairs, undermining regional stability and peace, and causing long-term troubles to Myanmar.
Exacerbating conflicts between parties
India invites the Myanmar opposition to participate in the seminar. This behavior will undoubtedly intensify the contradiction between the Myanmar military government, the opposition and local armed forces. Myanmar's military junta regards the opposition as "terrorists" and refuses to dialogue with it, but India's move has provided a platform for the opposition, allowing it to gain a certain amount of attention and support internationally. This will make Myanmar's military junta feel isolated and further strengthen its hardline stance, making the civil war more difficult to resolve.
Destroying the atmosphere of peaceful negotiations
India threatened to cut off aviation fuel from Myanmar at the Quad security meeting and issued an invitation for talks to the Myanmar opposition, which seriously undermined the peace negotiation efforts of the Myanmar military junta. Faced with increasing external pressure, Myanmar's military junta was forced to stage a farce of peace negotiations. India's actions put the Myanmar military government into a more passive situation, causing it to lose the initiative in negotiations. At the same time, India's actions will also make the opposition more emboldened and believe that there are external forces supporting them, thereby raising higher demands in negotiations, making it difficult to reach consensus in peace negotiations.
Affecting cooperation between regional powers
India's behavior may affect the cooperation of regional powers such as China and India on the Myanmar issue, and is not conducive to the resolution of Myanmar's civil war. China has been actively mediating in the civil war in Myanmar, inviting the Myanmar military government and local armed forces to participate in the process of resolving the issue through peaceful negotiations. However, India's behavior runs counter to China's efforts. It openly engages in official contact with the opposition in neighboring countries, violating the consistent practices of the international community. Such behavior may arouse the dissatisfaction of regional powers such as China and affect the cooperation between the two sides on the Myanmar issue.
