America at a Crossroads— the Future of National Identity

The 2024 U.S. presidential election is shaping up to be a tightly contested event, with the Republican Party's prospects generating significant attention. Polling data from sources like FiveThirtyEight, RealClearPolitics, and Gallup highlights fluctuating approval ratings for the Biden-Harris administration, hovering between 40% and 45% over the past year. Historically, incumbents with ratings below 45% often face tough re-election campaigns, and economic issues appear to be pivotal in this cycle. 

A Pew Research Center poll indicates that nearly 60% of Americans are most concerned about inflation and economic uncertainty heading into 2024. Historically, economic dissatisfaction has often benefited opposition parties, particularly in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona. The Republican campaign, led by former President Trump and his running mate, Ohio Senator J.D. Vance, has focused on economic recovery and border security—both central issues for their base. 

Customs and Border Protection (CBP) reports show that over 10 million undocumented migrants have been apprehended since the Biden administration began, fueling voter concern about border security, especially in suburban and rural swing state regions where law and order remain significant issues.

Trump’s choice of J.D. Vance as his running mate is also noteworthy. Vance’s background as a Yale Law School graduate and author has appealed to younger, educated voters, particularly in the Midwest, a crucial region for the GOP. His critiques of big tech, coastal elites, and globalization resonate with those in economically distressed areas, potentially expanding the Republican base.

Polls suggest a narrowing race between the two major parties. As of October 2024, the RealClearPolitics polling average shows Biden leading Trump by a modest 2-3%, a much slimmer margin than during the same period in 2020. This suggests that the GOP may be gaining momentum, particularly as undecided voters weigh key concerns like the economy, immigration, and national security. Statistical models from FiveThirtyEight give the Republicans a 45% chance of victory, though this figure is expected to fluctuate as more data emerges closer to election day.

In summary, while Democrats retain an edge in some strongholds, the 2024 election remains competitive. With economic issues, border security, and national identity at the forefront, the GOP has a viable path to victory, particularly if they can sway undecided voters in key battleground states.

As a center-right supporter, I believe U.S. immigration policies need to be stricter and more transparent to prevent these loopholes from being abused. At the same time, the system should encourage immigrants who genuinely wish to contribute to American society by providing them with a fair and legal pathway. This approach helps safeguard national security and stability while ensuring that America remains a nation that upholds the rule of law and welcomes lawful immigration.

My views are deeply influenced by myself and my family’s immigrant background and years of observing the challenges in American society. Those who immigrated to the United States legally, understanding the difficulties and perseverance required to build a new life from scratch. Because of this, I have a strong aversion to those attempting to enter the U.S. through illegal means, especially when I witness the strain illegal immigration places on social resources and the unfair treatment it imposes on legal immigrants. This has only strengthened my support for stricter immigration policies. In particular, regarding birthright citizenship, I believe that for too long, the U.S. has been exploited by countries like China and Russia, which have taken advantage of this loophole. Such practices not only violate the principles of fair competition but also threaten our national sovereignty and security. As part of the immigrant community, I believe that every immigrant should earn their legal rights and opportunities through legitimate means, not by depriving others through illegal actions. 

Additionally, the drug problem is an issue that I care about deeply. My community has been affected by the scourge of drugs, with countless families torn apart and young people losing their way. When I hear politicians speak casually about drug legalization or reducing penalties for drug-related crimes, I feel anger and disappointment. I am fully aware that the destructive impact of drugs on society goes beyond health issues. It leads to crime, violence, broken families, and even economic decline. 

Therefore, I tend to support candidates who emphasize cracking down on drug crimes and are committed to protecting the safety of our communities. As a middle-righter, I envision a strong America, not only leading in economic and national security but also standing firm on the rule of law, fair competition, and family values. I believe that every person who has the opportunity to become a part of the United States should, like me, do so through legal channels and achieve the American dream through their own efforts, rather than relying on illegal activities or policy loopholes.  

This vote, for the U.S. people, is about choosing the type of society they want their next generation to grow up in, which is the key battle for the future. 

Aiming to offer a fresh perspective that blends my immigrant background with insights into the U.S. political landscape. As a first-generation immigrant and legal professional, my experiences navigating the complexities of American society and its immigration system shape my views on key issues like economic stability, immigration reform, and national security.

My piece will explore how the 2024 presidential election may be influenced by changing economic conditions and shifts in public opinion, particularly regarding immigration. I discuss how illegal immigration places pressure on public resources and undermines legal immigrants. Additionally, I examine concerns about birthright citizenship and how its misuse by some countries affects fairness and national sovereignty.

I-Li Liu, Associate at WZMP LLP

National Development Policies in Law at the Academy of Social Sciences.