諗緊點樣寫 美金“危機”

諗緊點樣寫 美金“危機”

剛剛睇到 ft 第一篇 ，寫得非常好。

然後睇到一個留言，基本上已經綜合了小弟我的心聲，加鹽加醋翻譯一下~

如果你是一個億萬富翁（美金計）。 你會在哪裏投資/ 哪一個地方可以安全存放資金?

無論你是什麼人什麼國籍，準則普遍都是 發達的金融市場、穩定的已發展經濟、穩定的法治 (寫明係 rule of law，不是 rule by law) 以及對 政治對個人資產沒有太多幹擾 的地方。

如果再加上你發達的方法（例如靠賄賂貪污），您可能還需要匿名投資：例如 加勒比海島、迪拜 等等。但這些經濟體系太小: 它們一早已經高度美元化，本質上就是西方資產的代理人。

你可以說，對美金霸權的威脅 其實就源自於美國政府自己 “武器化” 貨幣，實施制裁。

雖然如此，如果你是一個 俄羅斯軍閥 或 與黨關係良好的中國科企 ceo，你覺得你副身家放喺自己國家 還是在西方比較安全 ?

為何美金一開始會成為霸權? 因為全球金融市場，財富資產的基礎大部分都是美金，美元化。自然地，美元 就變成 首選貨幣 用於債務計價、長期合同合約計價以及大量交易和貿易。

人民幣要去取代美元霸主地位，需要作出非常多改變。 不僅僅是放棄資本管制，貨幣自由流動，還要發展深度和成熟的人民幣金融市場，全球化地，提供人民幣 based 債 etc。

還需要法治 (rule of law)，最重要是其他人，全球的信心。

中國政府要忍住不能夠任意用 人民幣 based 資產去施加影響/ 威脅/ 談判 其他國家，公司，個人。(你見識過中國如何用熊貓/孔子學院 去做政治交易威脅，你覺得黨忍不忍到 ?)

真係要講威脅的話，歐元仍有的潛力與美元並駕齊驅，但這顯然不是現在前進的方向（以歐元計價的市場過於分散；歐洲法律體系過於分散，執行合約時候一團糟；歐洲金融市場相對上欠發達，分散、規模較小、流動性較差 和 歷史回報較低) 。

原文:

Suppose you're a billionaire (or at least have tens of millions). Where do you invest and keep your wealth? Regardless of where in the world you live or come from, your preference (for at least a portion of it) would be in a developed financial market, in a stable developed economy, with strong rule of law and without too much political meddling in property rights.

Depending on how you got your wealth (e.g. corruption), you may also have a requirement for anonymity: preference for Caribbean islands, Dubai, etc. But those economies are too small: they are highly dolarized and they are essentially proxies for indirectly owning assets in the west.

The main threat to USD supremacy is its application of sanctions. But even with those, and even if you're a Russian oligarch or Chinese corporate CEO with good party relations, your wealth is still likely safer in the west.

If global ownership of wealth and global financial markets are overwhelmingly US-based and dolarized (they are), then the dollar will be preferred currency for, debt denomination, long term contract denomination and plenty of trading and trade too.

For the renminbi to unseat the dollar, would require many changes. Not only dropping capital controls, developing deep and mature renminbi financial markets, providing renminbi denominated debt globally, etc (the sorts of things the CCP could do if it wanted to, though it apparently doesn't want to do). It would also require rule of law in China, and a global confidence that the CCP would not use China-located or renminbi-denominated assets for arbitrary leverage over countries, companies and individuals. The CCP can probably never provide that.

The euro still has more potential to gain prominence alongside the dollar, but that's apparently not the direction of travel (euro-denominated markets are too fragmented; legal systems are too fragmented and contract enforcement is a mess; financial markets are arguably less developed, certainly fragmented, smaller and less liquid and historic yields are lower; even if there was improvement on all of the above, demographic trajectories do not favour the euro area viz-a-viz the US).