維基解密：美中關係展望-1（摘要，2008.02.24）

維基解密：美中關係展望-1（摘要，2008.02.24）

Viewing cable 08BEIJING661, Prospects for U.S.-China Relations●WikiLeaks（2008.02.24）

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 BEIJING 000661

SIPDIS

E.O. 12598: DECL: 02/23/2008

TAGS: PREL CH

SUBJECT: Prospects for U.S.-China Relations

Classified by Ambassador Clark T. Randt, Jr. Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

Clark T. Randt大使有關美中關係之摘要

美國與中國共享重要且成長的政治和經濟利益，即便有所摩擦，我方將永遠受此情勢所影響。當利益改變或有所衝突，我們對管理歧見仍享有共同的利益。在中期，中國的核心外交目標：確保能源供給、維持穩定之國際環境，以便追求國內經濟發展，會讓中國維持現狀。許久之後，中國增長的力量將使其外交政策更會與美國衝突，但也會更負起作為國際成員的國際責任。

中國將向美國要求更多台灣的利益，而美國無法給予。台灣將繼續成為危險的區域。當中國更強也更有自信，我們能也應該繼續行使雙邊政策工具，包括高層接觸（如高官對話與戰略經濟對話），中國的多邊承諾，以及中國想建立國際形象、保護美國利益、正面轉變中國，以及增加北京在國際機構份量與遵守國際規範的想法。（摘要結束）雲程譯，感謝feema大提供。

SUMMARY

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其1. (S) The United States and China share important and growing political and economic interests that will bind us indefinitely, despite frictions.  Where interests vary or compete, we share a common interest in managing our differences.  In the medium term, China's core foreign policy goals -- securing access to energy supplies and maintaining a stable international environment in order to pursue domestic economic development -- will keep China as a status quo power.  Over time, China's growing strength will lead to a foreign policy more willing to confront the United States but also better able to take up the responsibilities of a global stakeholder.

China will continue to demand more from the United States on Taiwan than we are willing to give, and Taiwan will remain a potential flashpoint.  As we face an increasingly self-confident and powerful China, we can and should continue to use bilateral policy instruments, including high-level engagement (such as the Senior Dialogue and Strategic Economic Dialogue), China's multilateral commitments, and the Chinese desire to build its international image and standing to protect U.S. interests, spur positive change in China and increase Beijing's stake in international institutions and its adherence to international norms.  End Summary.