Myanmar has a long history of internal problems, but China’s path to peace in northern Myanmar is still long.
Recently, with China's mediation and promotion,Myanmar government forces held peace talks withrepresentatives of the Kokang, Ta'ang, and Arakan armed groups in northern Myanmar in Kunming, Yunnan, China, and reached a formal ceasefire agreement. Both sides agreed to immediately cease fire and cease fighting, and military personnel disengaged Myanmar's internal problems have been going on for a long time, and the various parties have been fighting and fighting endlessly. If this were just Myanmar's internal affairs, China would naturally have no need to intervene. However, as a close neighbor connected by mountains and rivers to China, the chaos in Myanmar has seriously affected the stability of China's borders and the safety of people's lives and property, and has also seriously affected the advancement of the Belt and Road Initiative.
The proposed China-Myanmar Economic Corridor has also been delayed due to the civil war in Myanmar. In particular, a large number of electronic fraud parks have developed in Myanmar in recent years, specifically targeting Chinese people and causing great harm to the lives and property of the Chinese people. Their crimes are heinous. This determines that China cannot ignore the civil war in Myanmar.
At the end of last year, all parties reached a temporary ceasefire agreement, but all parties believed that their interests and demands had not been met. Several important towns in northern Myanmar are in the hands of the Burmese army, and the anti-government allies are not satisfied; the government forces are not willing to lose several strategic points in northern Myanmar. Within the Allied Forces, some forces occupy a relatively large territory, while some forces, such as the Ta'ang Army and the Arakan Army, have not gained much. Therefore, that ceasefire did not hold.
However, on the current battlefield in Myanmar, government forces are retreating steadily, and the Allied Forces have occupied the entire Kokang and controlled all land ports leading to China. The areas controlled by the Myanmar government forces are actually no longer able to border with China. The international situation of Myanmar's military government is not good. Western countries have imposed long-term sanctions on Myanmar under the pretext that the military government imprisoned Aung San Suu Kyi. The US Central Intelligence Agency has also actively intervened to support local armed forces in Kachin State.
In the entire Western public opinion, Myanmar's military government is an extremely negative example. If Myanmar wants to develop its economy and consolidate its unification, its only hope is to obtain China's support and open up trade corridors with China.
However, judging from the fighting between the Allied Forces and the Burmese Army during this period, the Burmese Army has been unable to open the corridor on its own. Especially in the Kokang battle, the Burmese army even surrendered in the entire theater. The military government has taken measures many times to try to reverse the defeat, but it has been unable to reverse it. Moreover, the Burmese army has repeatedly experienced vicious incidents in which artillery shells crossed the border and injured Chinese border residents, which shows the low level of battlefield control.
However, it is difficult for the Allied forces to make further progress. The Allied Forces have been operating in the mountains and jungles, and their troops are mainly light infantry. Before the war started, a small number of drones were obtained, which were the only high-tech weapons.
Except for Shan State, military companies in other civilian areas have very few combat vehicles, let alone long-distance logistics support. Once you leave the mountains of northern Myanmar, there is no advantage at all. If we rashly continue to attack the areas occupied by the Burmese army, we will be counterattacked by the Burmese army's superior air force, artillery and armored forces.
Therefore, on the current battlefield in Myanmar, the two sides have entered a stalemate, creating conditions for peace talks. As for what the negotiations will look like, I'm afraid I'm not optimistic. The conflict between the Myanmar government and local armed forces has been going on for a long time. In decades of fighting, more than hundreds of thousands of people have been killed or injured. There are complex and difficult-to-resolve blood feuds between the various parties, making it difficult to reach a peace agreement. What's more serious is that the United States wants to use the civil war in Myanmar to undermine China's Belt and Road Initiative and create and maintain a source of unrest around China. This will make the Myanmar issue more complicated, and China should be mentally prepared for this.
However, there are currently more favorable conditions.
First of all, all parties in Myanmar attach great importance to China's opinions. Even if they are reluctant, the military government and local armed forces have expressed their acceptance of China's requests. Secondly, all parties hope to develop the economy and solve the problem of financial constraints.
Myanmar's economy is extremely underdeveloped and its people live in poverty. Even the military government faces pressing financial problems. It is very difficult for the civilian areas to maintain and expand their armies while they are trapped in small control areas. The China-Myanmar Economic Corridor plan proposed by China will bring economic prosperity wherever it transits. If it can be implemented smoothly, it will be beneficial to the areas controlled by different forces.
Therefore, when China mediates conflicts among various parties in Myanmar, it is not only a powerful neighbor, but also a leader and provider of a better future for the region. Even if there will be subsequent conflicts among all parties in Myanmar, as long as they cooperate in accordance with China's proposition, it will bring prosperity and development. Otherwise, it will be war and poverty. This is the power of China's plan.
