太棒了，總統！見得好！◎Fareed Zakaria, Time Magazine（2013.06.24）Daniel 翻譯

【Comment】

The “true test” that Fareed Zakaria mentioned between China and the US would materialize in two to five years.  What would the “true test” look like?

In Henry Kissinger ’s “On China,” he reminded the readers that Chinese leaders tended to take advantage of the US-China summit to divert the scenario of Beijing’s enemy: Was there any covert deal? 

While China deterred the invasion of the Soviets in 1972, she started the war against Vietnam in less than a month after the meet of Deng Xiao-ping and Jimmy Carter in 1979.  The PLA’s landing on the Senkakus might be Zakaria’s “true test.”

However, if the “true test” happens, the US will be in the core, not a third party.  That might be the reason why the US-Japan joint military maneuver of “ Dawn Blitz ,” which aimed at the retaking of island, was held four days after Obama-Xi’s private meet at the Sunnylands in Southern California.

By the way, Obama proposed the cooperation of shale oil/gas to Xi: the US could offer cutting-edge shale technology in exchange of Chinese huge reserves.  The proposal was kind of disturbing: the US would be reluctant to protect the lengthy sea-lane as she does today while she acquires Chinese oil successfully.    Revised at 1620

季辛吉在《論中國》提醒讀者，中國領導人曾利用訪問美國的機會讓蘇聯誤以為中美有密約，從而顧忌。1979年中美建交後，1月28日鄧小平訪美與卡特的會面後2月17日立即發動中越戰爭，是個例子。

文章提及「真正的考驗」：或許是解放軍登陸尖閣群島。6月11日起美日兩國為主的「黎明閃電」奪島演習開始。此演習的時間，可以放在這脈絡下作為一個嚇阻籌碼來理解。

無法理解的是油頁岩，歐巴馬提議：中國有蘊藏美國有技術可以合作。但這合作會摧毀海上運輸線的重要性，從而讓美國有氣無力。

Hail, President. Well Met

太棒了，總統！見得好！◎Fareed Zakaria, Time Magazine（2013.06.24）Daniel 翻譯

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2145495,00.html

當我們為了目前幾項危機----土耳其的暴動、國安局偷窺網路、華府的「醜聞」----而焦頭爛耳之際，6月7、8日所發生的事其實影響更深遠。美國總統與中國領導人進行了一場數十年來意義最重大、結果也最成功的會談。世界超強的美國與全世界崛起最迅速的中國之間，這意義非凡的大國關係又往前邁進了重要一大步，且將決定21世紀的樣貌。

在加州「陽光之地」所舉行的高峰會歷經了數月的準備，美國方面主要由國安顧問Thomas Donilon所主導。他向我解釋，雙方陣營對此會議採用了與以前完全不同的形式：「通常像這樣的會議，各方領導人會準備一系列的討論要點，營造出突顯出問題點的形式。然而這次卻不同：我們並未準備一整套的抱怨，雙方領導人著眼於如何創造合作機會。這造就了一場截然不同的討論與動力」。

雙方開了8小時的會，包含兩位領導人為時50分鐘、現場除口譯人員外無其它人的單獨對話。會議的第一個時段主要是在交流雙方各自優先的施政重點。習近平的報告明白地表示，他的施政首重國內發展，他並耐心解釋他的政策口號「中國夢」的意涵，以及他將以何種改革來達到「中國夢」的目標；最後遵循典型的中式報告模式，他概述了中國到2020年、2050年的長期目標。歐巴馬總統則簡述了第一任期內的執政成果，以及他對第二任期的展望。接下來兩位領導人討論國際情勢及其所呈現的挑戰與機會。

這場會談相當非正式，甚至可以說是個人對話。談到貧窮問題時，習近平描述他在文化大革命時的艱苦歲月；歐巴馬則談到在印尼生活了四年的童年回憶，當時印尼十分貧窮落後。第一天晚餐一次特別的敬酒當中，客人竟獻出茅臺酒----名聞遐邇(或惡名昭彰)以高梁為主要原料的酒----使得主人驚喜。他們可能認為茅臺酒能夠幫助緩和高峰會的氣氛：據說亨利．季辛吉曾告訴中國前領導人鄧小平：「我想，只要喝足了茅臺，我們沒什麼事解決不了的」。

儘管此次會談的目的是建立互信而非達成一些結果，某些議題上仍有進展。中國做了一項美國期望已久的政策重大轉變，甚至是在抵達加州之前就已定案。在高峰會舉行前一週，習近平向北韓外交特使表示，中國必須重拾外交努力，使平壤放棄核武。Donilon回憶在Sunnylands的對話內容，對我說：「有關北韓，目前中國已將解除核武當作首要目標」。

討論經濟問題時，像網路攻擊這樣的爭議性議題亦被提出討論，雙方雖各執立場，但仍試圖找尋增進合作的機會。歐巴馬向習近平指出，中國含豐富頁岩資源，而美國持有煉頁岩油的前沿科技，因此有互利雙方的經濟合作機會存在。習近平自己也提出合作機會，例如讓中資投資美國基礎建設計畫。

會中討論到頗具張力的話題，包括讓中國激動的中日關係。但這次討論的氣氛卻與過去有點不同。北京向來認為，歐巴馬政府的「重返」(pivot)亞州政策的目標在圍堵中國。但Donilon說，這次會談中：「中國領導人清楚表示，他們理解並感激美國致力維護亞太地區和平穩定的歷史角色」。

這些多半是好聽的場面話。Donilon承認：「這場高峰會真正的考驗會在兩年、三年或五年之後，到時候這些背後的善意必須轉化為雙方的實際行動」。顯然雙方在接下來幾年內都必須信守承諾，但對於兩個截然不同且容易發展成敵對關係的國家，能夠發建立善意與互信是個意義重大的成就。歷史學家在記載中國的復興、致力於確保中國和平崛起的美國角色之時，都會特別強調1972年理查尼克森與周恩來，以及1979年吉米卡特與鄧小平的會談。如果一切順利，或許歐習這次在加州沙漠裡進行的接觸，會被史學家們列為重大中美關係會議之一。

Hail, President. Well Met

by Fareed Zakaria , Time Magazine, Monday, Jun. 24, 2013

While we were consumed by the crises of the moment--Turkey's riots, NSA snooping and Washington 's "scandals"--something happened on June 7 and 8 that is potentially of more lasting importance. The Presidents of the U.S. and China held their most significant and successful meeting in decades. It was a vital step forward in the crucial relationship--between the world's superpower and its fastest-rising power--that will shape the 21st century.

The summit at Sunnylands, in California, was the result of months of preparation, led on the American side by National Security Adviser Thomas Donilon. He explained to me that the two teams agreed to a format that was a real break with the past: "Usually at meetings like these, each leader brings a set of talking points. This creates a format that highlights problems. This was different: We didn't come in with a set of complaints. The leaders came with ideas about opportunities. It created a completely different discussion and dynamic."

The two sides had eight hours of meetings, including 50 minutes of one-on-one talks between the two Presidents, with no aides other than their interpreters. The first session was devoted to the priorities of each leader. Xi Jinping's presentation made clear that the main focus of his agenda was domestic. He explained at length what he means when he talks about the "China Dream," his governing slogan, and what reforms he intends to pursue to achieve it. In typical Chinese style he outlined long-term goals for his nation, for 2020 and for 2050. President Obama outlined his first-term achievements and his hopes for his second term. The two then discussed the international scene and the challenges and opportunities it presented.

The conversation was far more informal than usual; it was even personal. In talking about poverty, Xi described his years of hardship during the Cultural Revolution. Obama talked about spending four years as a boy in Indonesia at a time when the country was largely rural and poor. In the middle of the first night's dinner, the Chinese team surprised their hosts by bringing out Moutai, the famous (or infamous) sorghum-based liquor, for a special toast. Perhaps they thought it would help grease the summit: Henry Kissinger is said to have told China's former supreme leader Deng Xiaoping , "I think if we drink enough Moutai, we can solve anything."

While the purpose of the meeting was to build trust rather than produce a set of results, progress was made on specific issues. The Chinese already made one important shift in policy, long sought by the Americans, even before they got to California. A week before the summit, Xi told a North Korean envoy that his country had to re-engage in a diplomatic process whose goal was to rid Pyongyang of nuclear weapons. Reflecting on the conversations at Sunnylands, Donilon told me, "On North Korea, China now sees the denuclearization of North Korea as its top goal."

In the discussions on economics, contentious issues like cyberattacks came up, and each side stood its ground, but even here there was a search for opportunities for increased cooperation. Obama pointed out to Xi that given China's vast resources of shale and America's leading-edge extraction technology, there was an opportunity for economic cooperation that would benefit both. Xi had his own list of such opportunities, like Chinese investment to fund U.S. infrastructure projects.

Areas of tension were discussed, including China's relations with Japan, on which the Chinese were impassioned. But the atmosphere was somewhat different this time. In the past, Beijing has argued that the Obama Administration's "pivot" to Asia looked to it like a strategy to contain China. At this meeting, Donilon said, "the Chinese leaders made clear that they understood and appreciated America's historic role in Asia in providing stability."

This is mostly rhetoric and atmospherics. "The true test of this summit will be in two or three or five years," Donilon acknowledged, "when this background goodwill has to get translated into specific actions on both sides." Clearly both sides will have to follow up in the years ahead. But it is a significant achievement to create goodwill and trust between two countries that are so different in so many dimensions and could easily become adversaries. When historians write about China's renaissance and America's role in ensuring its peaceful rise, they highlight the meetings between Richard Nixon and Zhou Enlai in 1972 and between Jimmy Carter and Deng in 1979. If things go well, perhaps they will add to that list this meeting between Obama and Xi in the California desert.

Find this article at:

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,2145495,00.html