Taiwan Election Too Close to Call as U.S., China Look on◎Reuters / Jonathan Standing（2011.12.30）

【Comment】

這次選舉將決定：這個自治的島國將加強與中國大陸的經濟整合，或者，開啟一段可能很火爆的關係，而導致華盛頓與北京之間更加緊張。(華盛頓支援台灣，而中國想併吞台灣)

文章所提的任何緊張，只是時間早晚的問題。這是大局，不是誰會誰不會。但政治人物總會扭曲成為個人的榮辱。

Taiwan Election Too Close to Call as U.S., China Look on◎Reuters / Jonathan Standing（2011.12.30）

http://www.lignet.com/Wire/Taiwan-Election-Too-Close-to-Call-as-U-S-,-China-L.aspx#ixzz1iAUhjQ3A

TAIPEI, Dec 30 (Reuters) - Taiwan's presidential election, which could have a significant influence on ties between China and the United States, is just over two weeks away but neither of the two main candidates yet holds a clear advantage.
The Jan. 14 vote will determine whether the self-ruled island deepens economic integration with the mainland or embarks on a period of possibly fractious relations that could increase tension between Washington, its main backer, and Beijing, which wants to take it over.

China says it will not interfere, but has made little attempt to hide its desire to see Nationalist Party incumbent Ma Ying-jeou re-elected.  That should mean a continuation of policies that Beijing hopes one day will lead to its long-held aim of re-unification.

It deeply distrusts Ma's main rival, the Democratic Progressive Party's (DPP) Tsai Ing-wen, seeing her as seeking independence from Beijing despite the party's shift away from that stance.

"Promoting cross-Strait peace and development and completing the great task of unification of the motherland are the common aspirations of all the sons and daughters of China, including Taiwan compatriots," Chinese Politburo Standing Committee member He Guoqiang said this week.

On Wednesday, China's Taiwan Affairs Office warned that the DPP threatened the two sides' hard-won peaceful coexistence, and that a victory for them would almost certainly stop further talks on trade and economic deals.

A DPP victory would present China and the United States with a challenge at a time of political transition in 2012, with U.S. President Barack Obama facing re-election and China's Hu Jintao due to hand over power to a new generation of leaders.

Tensions across the Taiwan Strait would also add to uncertainty in a region coming to terms with North Korea's sudden change of leadership and facing potentially dangerous disputes over territorial claims in the seas around China.

China and Taiwan have been ruled separately since 1949 when Nationalist forces fled to the island after losing control of the mainland in a civil war with the Communists.

MA'S SLIGHT EDGE

The campaigns have moved into high gear, with the candidates travelling the island to make their pitches, trailed by TV crews and reporters.  Canvassers hand out leaflets at public places and TV channels convene panels of experts for discussion programmes.

Taiwan's partisan and idiosyncratic opinion polls give a slight edge to Ma, a former mayor of the capital who has struggled of late with an image of being aloof and out of touch.

But that may be blunted by the third candidate, James Soong of the People First Party, which has close ties with the Nationalists and could cut into its votes.

In the latest poll by TV station TVBS, which leans towards the Nationalists, Ma's support stood at 44 percent. Tsai, a former academic who has revitalised her party, had 38 percent and Soong's 6 percent, with 12 percent undecided.

A separate poll by DPP-leaning research body Taiwan Think Tank, released on Dec 26, put support for Ma at 39.5 percent and Tsai at 39.1 percent, with Soong at 11.1 percent.  The rest were undecided or did not reply.

Taiwan's National Chengchi University's xFuture electronic exchange, where bets on the election in a virtual currency are traded, showed that as of Dec 25, Tsai would win 50.4 percent of the vote versus Ma's 43 percent and Soong's 7.7 percent.

"Both Tsai and Ma are taking a centrist, moderate road," said Liao Da-chi, professor at National Sun Yat Sen University.  "This is a good thing for Taiwan's democracy.  The two of them are quite similar and this shows the current style of Taiwan."

And because of this, Taiwan's fifth presidential election since its transition from a martial law dictatorship is also shedding much of its earlier emotional nature in favour of rational debate.

"Elections in recent years have shed some of the passion that was seen in the early years of democratisation in the 1990s and 2000s," said Wang Yeh-lih, head of the political science department at National Taiwan University.

"This is a sign of the gradual maturing of (Taiwan's) democracy.  Passionate emotional confrontations are easing: the two main candidates are both moderate politicians, not populist instigators."

While the parties have found plenty of mud to sling, the often fiery populist rhetoric of previous campaigns has been overtaken by informed debate and policy on relations with China and domestic issues such as employment and living costs.

"Tsai and Ma are similar in some characteristics of their personalities: rational, middle of the road," said Chen Yi-shen, associate research fellow at think tank Academia Sinica.

"So how they can attract the majority of floating voters is the key point that will decide victory or defeat." (Additional reporting by Jeanny Kao in TAIPEI and Benjamin Kang Lim in XIAMEN; Editing by Raju Gopalakrishnan and Ron Popeski)

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