維基解密（2009.06.04）：2009中國經濟（雲程譯）

http://cablegate.wikileaks.org/cable/2009/06/09SINGAPORE529.html●Wikileaks（2009.06.04）
轉引自 http://tw.myblog.yahoo.com/mbarobin/article?mid=7140&prev=7143&next=7133&l=a&fid=5

維基解密（2009.06.04）：2009中國經濟（雲程譯）

Chinese Economy
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在中國經濟方面，經容海嘯對各國影響不同。李光耀2009.05.24訪問江蘇省，中國依舊繁榮。上海的確受影響，貨櫃下降30-35％，與新加坡類似。無跡象顯示中國有動盪。雲程譯中國有信心達成8％年成長率。中國政府大舉投資，主要針對西部。不清楚此政策是否會維持3-4年，但至少可以維持1年。雲程譯

¶9. (C) Regarding the Chinese economy, MM Lee said the global economic crisis has hit many countries, but the feel on the ground differs considerably from place to place.  The Chinese economy is reportedly in the doldrums, but when MM Lee visited Jiangsu Province on May 24, his impression was one of continued prosperity.  Shanghai has been harder hit, with container port traffic down 30-35 percent, similar to the situation in Singapore.  There is no sign of deep unrest in China.  The Chinese are very confident they will be able to sustain eight percent growth.  The government is pumping resources into the economy, with a focus on developing Western China.  Whether such policies can be sustained for three to four years is unclear, but China can certainly sustain these policies for at least a year, he said.

李光耀說：中國沒有這會安全網，中國人儲蓄率達55％，超過新加坡的50％。中國GDP消費門只有GDP的35％，美國則達GDP的70％雲程譯。中國領導人不喜歡消費主導的經濟，但為消弭不安容許暫時如此。因為經濟變動，已有2000萬人回鄉。政府開辦微型貸款促進轉型。此事無關共產黨，他們只想專政。史坦伯格關切中國應付景氣的政策是否將危及改革（譯註：即更加集權）。李光耀說：毫無辦法。中國企圖避免因香港倒風所掃到的廣州三月暴動。雲程譯

¶10. (C) MM Lee stated that in the absence of a social safety net in China, the Chinese savings rate is 55 percent, exceeding even Singapore’s 50 percent level.  Consumption accounts for only 35 percent of Chinese GDP, as opposed to 70 percent of U.S. GDP.  The Chinese leadership may be loath to shift permanently to a more consumption-oriented economy, but the leadership will do so temporarily, if only to avoid unrest.  20 million people have moved back to the countryside because of economic dislocations.  The government is providing microfinance to facilitate the transition.  The pragmatists are in charge.  There is nothing Communist about it.  They just want to preserve one party rule.  The Deputy Secretary expressed concern that current Chinese policies designed to counter the economic crisis could undermine reform.  MM Lee said this cannot be helped.  China wants to prevent riots like the ones that happened in Guangzhou in March when Hong Kong-connected enterprises suddenly shut down, he said.