後美國時代的世界——為何2011年與以後，新興國家都無法領導 By Fareed Zakaria

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後美國時代的世界——為何2011年與以後，新興國家都無法領導 By Fareed Zakaria

A Post-American World in Progress ◎TIME By Fareed Zakaria（2011.12.29）/ SW譯

Why emerging powers didn't lead in 2011 and won't in the coming year

The past year has been filled with tumultuous events—the Arab Spring, the euro-zone crisis.  But the most striking trend of 2011, one that will persist in 2012, was one that got little notice: the emerging powers that weren't.
動盪的2011年有阿拉伯春天、歐元危機，但是極少人注意到2011最顯著的趨勢：所謂的崛起的強國並未崛起。2012也是一樣的趨勢。

By now everyone knows that a new and rising group of nations, including China, India, Brazil and Russia, are reshaping the globe.  Yet if 2011 demonstrated anything, it was the inability of these countries to have much influence beyond their borders.  They continue to grow their economies, but they all face internal and external challenges that make them less interested and less capable of exercising power on an international or even regional scale.
正在崛起的中國、印度、巴西、俄羅斯在塑造新世界，但是這些國家在2011年並未能夠在國外拓展影響力。他們的經濟持續發展，但是也都面對國內外的挑戰，無法在全球或甚至區域內施展威力。

Let's start with China.  Chinese growth continues to be robust, though clearly the government is worried about the inflationary effects of the massive stimulus program it implemented after the financial crisis, which has created a boom-bust cycle and inflationary pressures across the country.  The regime, however, is expert at dealing with economic challenges; political ones are harder.  China faces a transfer of power in 2012 that is unprecedented.  About 70% of the country's senior leadership— the top 200 or so members of the Central Committee—will be replaced by autumn.  The new leaders—Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang—are the first generation that was not personally blessed and selected by Deng Xiaoping, the architect of modern China.  Perhaps as a result, we are beginning to see factions develop within the Chinese Communist Party along regional, functional and ideological lines.  The change comes at a delicate moment.  Beijing's foreign policy assertiveness over the past two years on the South China Sea and related territorial issues has provoked other Asian powers to stand up to China, band together more closely and ask openly for American involvement in the Pacific.  The result is that Beijing is now quieter on the regional stage.  Global leadership is unthinkable.  No Chinese leader today has the authority or the inclination to make big, bold decisions that would involve, say, shoring up the euro or initiating a new East-West climate compact.
先談中國。中國經濟繼續茁壯，但是政府很明顯地在擔憂通膨問題。中國在經濟危機之後的大型刺激方案造成了一種興衰循環，以及全國性的通膨壓力。不過中國處理經濟問題很厲害，政治問題則較難應付。2012的中國面臨前所未有的權力轉移。百分之七十的領導——約200位高階的中央委員——將在秋天之前被汰換掉。習近平與李克強，將是第一代未曾接受鄧小平欽點的新領導人。所以，在區域、職務、及思想方面會開始有派系出現。很不巧地，此時正值其他亞洲國家起而聯合對抗中國，並公開要求美國涉入太平洋區域，因為中國過去這兩年在南海及其他領土議題上態度強硬。結果導致中國在區域舞台上較為沉默了。目前沒有任何中國領導人有那種威望及意圖去做大膽的決策，譬如支持歐元或開啟中西方新的氣候條約。

India is even more obsessed with domestic affairs than China is.  With a bewildering array of local and regional pulls on it, the central government has had little scope for foreign policy—or indeed any policy.  Facing opposition on every front, with state and national elections looming, the coalition government of Manmohan Singh is like a patient on life support grabbing for the oxygen mask, simply trying to survive.
印度的內政比中國還要棘手。地方上有一堆的問題有待處理，中央政府無暇兼顧外交政策——或者毫無政策可言。面對各方面的反對勢力，以及各州與全國即將舉行的選舉，印度總理曼莫漢‧辛格(Manmohan Singh)的政府就像仰賴維生器的病人，緊抓著氧氣罩，苟延殘喘。

Goldman Sachs' Jim O'Neill noted in late December, on the 10th anniversary of his coining the term BRIC, that the greatest disappointment among those emerging stars has been India.  Indian growth rates are declining, its currency is the worst performer in all of Asia, foreign investment is slowing, and government policy has alternated between populism and paralysis. In this context, foreign policy has been almost entirely secondary, confined to regional issues like Pakistan and Afghanistan, and even in those showing little in the way of leadership.
高盛銀行的首席經濟學家Jim O'Neill在十二月下旬，也就是創造「金磚四國」這個名詞的十週年時，認為印度是這些新崛起的國家中最令人失望的。印度的成長率在下降，貨幣是亞洲表現最差的，國外投資趨緩，政府政策則在民粹主義與癱瘓麻痺之間擺盪。這種狀況下，外交政策幾乎是完全不重要，只剩巴基斯坦與阿富汗等區域性議題，而在這些議題上也根本談不上領導者地位。

The other emerging powers face their own challenges.  Russia has presidential elections in 2012, though the outcome is predetermined.  Still, it faces new political dissent on a scale not seen since the rise of Vladimir Putin.  Abroad, it has a skeptical Europe on one border, an expansive China on another and a hostile and increasingly radical Muslim population on a third.  Brazil is in better shape, though its economy actually contracted in the third quarter of 2011. (If that happens in the fourth quarter, it will technically be entering a recession.) And its moves to become a regional leader have run up against a Mexico that is determined not to be forgotten or dominated.  Turkey has been the one emerging power that has successfully projected influence in its region, but there are natural limits to that influence.  The rise of the rest is real, but the emerging powers are not ready for prime time.
其他新崛起的國家也都面對自己的問題。俄羅斯2012選舉——雖然結果已定——面臨浦亭發跡以來最嚴重的新的反對聲浪。邊界上，有帶著懷疑眼光的歐洲，有意欲擴張版圖的中國，還有帶著敵意且愈來愈激進的回教人口。巴西狀況稍好，雖然2011第三季經濟萎縮。(如果第四季仍如此，技術上來說就是進入經濟衰退。) 巴西想領導該區域，得面對不甘屈居老二的墨西哥。土耳其在區域內也在發揮影響力，但受限於先天條件，不易擴展至外面。這些所謂的崛起的新興國家都是真的，只是時機尚未成熟。

The U.S. has been able to fill the leadership vacuum quite effectively in some places.  It has deftly expanded its role in Asia; continues to forge strong ties with India, Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey; and has maintained a good relationship with Russia on nuclear-weapons reduction.  But American influence is not what it used to be.  During the Mexican and Asian crises of the mid-1990s, the U.S. managed global economic problems almost unilaterally.  Today no one expects or believes that Washington could solve the euro-zone crisis or direct the outcome of the Arab Spring.  It is a post-American world out there, one characterized more by the absence of great powers than by their presence.
美國還是能夠有效地在某些地方填補領導地位的空缺。他在亞洲表現不錯，跟印度、巴西、印尼、土耳其的友誼堅定，跟俄羅斯在削減核武上也合作愉快。但是美國的勢力已經大不如前。90年代中期的墨西哥與亞洲危機當中，美國幾乎是獨力地處理全球經濟危機。今天沒有人會期待或相信，美國可以解決歐盟危機，或領導阿拉伯春天。這是個後美國時期的世界，是個強國付之闕如的時代。

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