經濟學人世界新聞簡訊 - 2023/9/21

亞洲貿易是否觸底反彈？

“領先指標”是一個很少被用來指其字面意思的詞彙。它最初指的是脖子掛著鈴鐺的羊，它既引導羊群，又指示羊群的去向。韓國是半導體和其他電子元件的主要供應商，被認為是亞洲貿易的領先指標。週四，韓國將發布9月前20天的出口數據，這將提供一個早期跡象，表明“亞洲工廠”的表現如何。

“Bellwether” is a word that is rarely used literally. It originally referred to a sheep with a bell around its neck, which both leads the flock and signals where it is going. South Korea, a leading supplier of semiconductors and other electronic components, is considered a bellwether for Asian Trade. On Thursday it will release export numbers for the first 20 days of September, providing an early indication of how “Factory Asia” is faring.

在過去的一年裡，疲軟的全球需求和高庫存損害了該地區的製造商。例如，韓國的出口額按美元計算在截至7月的12個月裡下降了16.4%。但8月份的數據好於預期，這讓人們對貿易週期可能觸底反彈抱有希望。中國和台灣也出現了類似的好消息。遺憾的是，韓國本月初10天的貿易數據不太理想。警鐘敲響了。但羊群的走向仍不清楚。

Weak global demand and high inventories have hurt the region’s manufacturers over the past year. South Korea’s exports, for example, fell by 16.4% in dollar terms in the year to July. But August’s figures were better than expected, raising hopes that the trade cycle may be bottoming out. There were similar pleasant surprises in China and Taiwan. Unfortunately, South Korea’s trade figures for the first ten days of this month were less encouraging. The bell is ringing. But the flock’s direction is still unclear.

Photo: ALAMY

_{Sources: https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief}

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