維基解密：美中關係展望-11（台灣，2008.02.24）

維基解密：美中關係展望-11（台灣，2008.02.24）

【Comment】記憶中，modus vivendi是下台的蘇姓國安會議秘書所提倡。2008年2月底，美國即預期（鼓勵？）馬政府對中和善。記憶中，當年20080228之後美國態度明顯轉變支持馬。

Viewing cable 08BEIJING661, Prospects for U.S.-China Relations●WikiLeaks（2008.02.24）

TAIWAN

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中國長期以來及定義台灣為其核心利益。中國領導者將阻止台灣獨立為對其政權正當性的嚴重考驗，且美國承諾保衛現狀，未經海峽兩岸人民同意不得改變。台灣仍是美中關係展望的威脅，甚至可能引起武裝衝突。

雖然中國總是貪多，過去兩年中國領導者似乎很滿意，甚至感謝美國對台灣的政策，無論其政策的表面上說法如何。美國對陳水扁不滿意並公開表達對民進黨以台灣加入聯合國公投的反對立場在一定程度上緩解了中國的焦慮。我們對台灣問題的「暫行協議」（modus vivendi）的提議是擔心的。即使我們持續澄清，北京可能會誤認我們將主導台灣。台灣下屆政府可能從中國獲得一些短期、少量的讓步。無論如何，阻撓中國的對統一或中國對的美國主導台灣的意願期望，會導致中期的困頓。雲程譯，感謝feema大提供

其11. (S) China has long identified Taiwan as one of its core interests.  Chinese leaders see preventing Taiwan's formal independence as crucial to their legitimacy, and the United States is committed to the defense of the status quo absent agreement to a change by the peoples on both sides of the Strait.  Taiwan will continue to be the largest threat to U.S.-China relations, potentially resulting in armed conflict.  Though China always wants more, for the past two years Chinese leaders have appeared relatively satisfied with and even appreciative of U.S. policy toward Taiwan, despite rhetoric to the contrary.  U.S. disaffection with Chen Shui-bian and explicit U.S. opposition to the DPP referendum on UN membership in the name of Taiwan have eased China's anxieties to a degree.  Nevertheless, our uneasy modus vivendi on the Taiwan issue is fragile.  Beijing may mistakenly come to believe, despite our constant disclaimers, that we are willing to "manage" Taiwan in partnership with China over the heads of Taiwan's democratically elected leaders.  Taiwan's next President may win a few short-term, small concessions from China.  However, thwarted Chinese expectations of progress toward reunification or of a U.S. willingness to "manage" Taiwan could lead to a rocky medium term.