個股年度投資績效評鑑(以自由現金流為例)
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金流，對企業經營與市場投資而言，是決勝的關鍵
其中，又分為「金源獲取」及「金錢品質」
在獲取方面，以自有資金為最，募集次之，然後舉債
在品質部分，取決於資金可運用時間、操作範圍，或支應其它目標週期
因此，套用投資架構，型塑5種評鑑機制：
1.企業(大型、集團)是否具備充足的自由現金，拓展下一年度各項業務，或度過景氣寒冬、維持競爭力。
2.資金獲取來源是否為本業市場，非向投資人募集或舉債。
3.以近6年投資組合，擇優回測市場營利成效，驗證是否符合(或超出)預期。
4.採「先擇標的，再回測」原則，尊重各種可能性與結論，避免倒果為因，違背統計研判的科學精神。
5.評估現有投資節點，檢討置換或增設的可行性。
回測的結果出人意料，獲利機率100%，且報酬率為7.7%~39.7%
該成功模式具有企業賴以存續的防衛機制，且證實過往的經營成效得以延續至少一年
有限的風險、誘人的獲利、成功的機率，營造一場豐盛的饗宴
將透過公開市場操作，將洞察變現，重新分配財富
Cash flow is the key to success in business operations and market investment.
Among them, it is divided into "source acquisition" and "money quality".
In terms of acquisition, self-owned funds are the most important, followed by raising funds, and then borrowing.
In terms of quality, it depends on the availability of funds, operating scope, or supporting other target cycles.
Therefore, apply the investment structure and shape five evaluation mechanisms:
1. Whether the enterprise (large-scale or group) has sufficient free cash to expand various businesses in the next year, or survive the economic downturn and maintain competitiveness.
2. Whether the source of capital acquisition is the industry market, rather than raising or borrowing from investors.
3. Based on the investment portfolio in the past 6 years, select the best and back-test the market profit-making effect, and verify whether it meets (or exceeds) expectations.
4. Adopt the principle of "select the target first, then back-test", respect various possibilities and conclusions, and avoid turning the result into the cause, which violates the scientific spirit of statistical research and judgment.
5. Evaluate existing investment nodes, and review the feasibility of replacement or addition.
The result of the back-test is more than expectation, the profit probability is 100%, and the rate of return is 7.7%~39.7%.
The successful model has a defense mechanism for the survival of the enterprise, and it has been proved that the past operating results can continue for at least one year.
Limited risks, attractive profits, and chances of success create a sumptuous feast.
Investor likes me, will realize this insight and redistribute wealth through open market operations.
