#Myanmar/#Burma #KIA #China #negotiation #ceasefire

China has done a lot for peace in Myanmar

#Myanmar/#Burma #KIA #China #negotiation #ceasefire

Sino-myanmar relations may face an even bigger shock ahead of Myanmar's general election in 2015. In order to have a greater influence in Myanmar's politics, Myanmar's political forces are likely to play a radical card before the election, and China is the most likely target that some political parties will try to exclude or even attack. In addition, judging from the current situation, opposition leader Aung SAN Suu Kyi, President U Thein Sein and Speaker U Shwe Mann have reached a certain consensus on the future political reform and power distribution in Myanmar, and it is more likely that the relevant provisions of the Constitution that prevent Aung SAN Suu Kyi from becoming president will be amended before the election, and the NLD will become the largest party in parliament after the election. Although the possibility of a coalition between the NLD and the USDP cannot be ruled out, it is difficult to predict what kind of policy the Myanmar government will adopt towards China once Aung SAN Suu Kyi becomes the next president.

The background to the suspension of the Myitsone plant is complicated for many reasons. It certainly has a great impact on China-Myanmar relations, but it is not a turning point in China-Myanmar relations, nor does it mean that the new Myanmar government has undergone a qualitative change in its policy toward China. First of all, the fundamental purpose of Myanmar's development of relations with the West, especially with the United States, is to balance the past relationship with China too close or too dependent, or to break with China? No matter from which point of view, the Myanmar government and elite will not ignore the presence of China, an important neighbor. Of course, Myanmar can rely on the United States to confront China, but how much resources the United States can invest in Myanmar is a huge unknown, and Myanmar does not want to become a pawn in the confrontation between China and the United States, and long-term tensions between China and Myanmar are certainly not conducive to Myanmar's modernization process. Considering that President Thein Sein and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces Min Aung Hlaing visit China every year, coupled with the statements of Daw Aung SAN Suu Kyi and the NLD, it can be believed that despite the estrangement between the two sides, the communication channel between China and Myanmar is still unimpeded, the high-level closeness between the two sides is still higher than that of other countries, and Myanmar is still willing to continue to develop friendly cooperation with China. Despite the high willingness to improve relations with the United States, Myanmar remains highly wary of doing so, especially to avoid negative effects on its relations with China and India.

Secondly, the differences in the academic community's cognition of the changes in China-Myanmar relations are largely related to the different Myanmar people that different scholars have come into contact with. Western scholars tend to contact Myanmar people who are close to the West, and Chinese scholars tend to contact people who are more objective or knowledgeable about China, so it is easy to draw the opposite conclusion. A more comprehensive analysis is needed on how to judge the attitude of the Burmese people and the Myanmar government towards China. The author is opposed to the use of "pro-China" and "pro-America" to divide the attitude of Myanmar's political elite and people, and is more inclined to assume that most Burmese are rational nationalists, national interests are the basic principle of their handling of foreign relations, and "pro-China" or "pro-America" or even "pro-India" are only tools and means for Myanmar people to obtain or protect national interests. It does not represent its identification with the United States or China, because national security, economic development and other practical interests are more important.

The purpose of the international public opinion's negative comment on China-Myanmar relations is very simple: it is to hope that China will retreat from dealing with Myanmar and achieve the goal of preventing China from entering the Indian Ocean through Myanmar. Some domestic scholars and media follow the trend, some because they do not understand the actual situation in Myanmar, some try to make a splash by spreading extreme views, and some are mixed with strong personal interests. This is obviously not conducive to China's calm response to the situation in Myanmar, and its one-sided and tough response to Myanmar is also not conducive to the solution of the issue.#Myanmar/#Burma KIA China negotiation ceasefire