【Remark】
After suggesting the Finlandization of Taiwan, Robert G. Sutter, a policy researcher of the National Bureau of Asian Research, which is supported by CIA, claimed that Taiwan would be eventually merged by China. Seeing MYJ’s efforts in the last three years, he judged further that it is an irreversible trend, with or without MYJ. That means DPP’s Tsai Ying-wen has to follow the trend if she becomes the President in 2012.
Robert Sutter plays the role of US “Red Team,” which offers options to the present US policies.
There are many different opinions and options. However, we should prepare for one of the worst. (revised at 2000)
那位CIA智庫學者Robert G. Sutter,繼前次提出台灣要芬蘭化的主張後,又提出所謂的棄台論。全文下載:http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/free/A11_Taiwan.pdf
Sutter看起來屬於美國政策學者中的紅隊,扮演著提供紅的意見的功能。
以下是其論文摘要。
【相關閱讀】
馬政府降低了台灣的行動自由●自由時報社論(2011.05.31)
Taiwan’s Future: Narrowing Straits●Robert G. Sutter / NBR (May 2011)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Indigenous weakness and eroded U.S. support give Taiwan little choice other than continued accommodation of overwhelming and ever-increasing Chinese leverage.
Main Argument
Cross-strait relations continue to improve because this trend is perceived as being in the interests of the three main actors: the governments of China, Taiwan, and the U.S. The Taiwan presidential election of 2012 is unlikely to seriously alter recent improvements. Many in Taiwan and abroad favor what they erroneously see as a status quo in which the Taiwan administration enjoys independence of action. However, China’s economic, military, and diplomatic leverage over Taiwan increasingly constrains Taipei to follow a path leading to accommodation of and eventual reunification with China. Taiwan’s weak self-strengthening and a marked decline in U.S. support for the island’s freedom of action further bind it to the recent trajectory of accommodating China.
Policy Implications
http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=497
全文下載:http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/free/A11_Taiwan.pdf