中國巨獸覺醒 ●衛報（2010.06.17）Simon Tisdall / 雲程譯

【Comment】

There is no core value for Chinese foreign policies. They care nothing of civilization. They care not to promote civilization. They do nothing to mold a better world. They care their own interests or pure money. No religious and moral restriction or discipline could catch them.
中國的外交策略沒有核心價值。換言之，對於何謂文明？要如何促進文明、形塑文明毫不在意。他們心中沒有宗教、倫理的限制，也無「律」可制約他們。不妙～

（感謝網友Silly提供文章與出處）

中國巨獸覺醒  ●衛報（2010.06.17）Simon Tisdall / 雲程譯

近日中國與希臘最新的交易，是一系列野心勃勃擴張影響力行動之一

中國本週在希臘債務危機中進行強力干預，已騷擾了歐盟領導人在今天舉行的歐盟首腦會議，並深刻的提醒著挑戰：北京無情，膨脹，而非良性追求全球利益和影響力。對於其他人而言，中國將來的成果掌握雅典的潛在金融命脈，令人不安。

由高級北京官員組成為期四週第二次訪問期間，國務院副總理張德江同意價值數十億歐元的航運，旅遊和電信交易。據說這是中國有史以來最大手筆的投資歐洲方案，處於困境中的希臘政府張開雙手歡迎。

但是，自由歐洲電台評論員Breffni O'Rourke以歐洲作整體為觀點，強調中國干預的更廣泛的意義。他說：「中國人是頭腦清醒的現實主義者，他們體認希臘是輸往巴爾幹地區的理想門戶。他們在最有利時建立一個橋頭堡」。

另一個例子，本週的報告更清楚的說明，英國石油公司墨西哥灣漏油而股票價格暴跌後，由國家控制的中國石油可能考慮收購英國石油公司。這樣的收購將創造一個巨大的公司，石油儲量的超過埃克森美孚73％以上和超過殼牌 187％以上。

以牽制的方式，中國根深蒂固不願意支持不利於經濟前景的政策，其地緣政治的影響也逐漸浮出。本週歐盟強同意硬制裁伊朗，特別是明確禁止新的能源投資和銷售。但德國的製造商預測，中國受害企業沒有這樣的官方禁令，已經成為伊朗的投資大咖，將完全取代歐洲企業。

北京如果不前後一致，就會一事無成。它近日成功地迫使安全理事會淡化制裁德黑蘭。中國在巴基斯坦推進興建兩座民用核反應爐，無視於西方國家對核子擴散的關切。它一直拒絕譴責其核武盟友朝鮮，要為3月擊沈韓國海軍船隻負責。

由獨立倫敦的智囊機構，歐洲外交關係理事會本週公佈一份報告，提出中國行為的負面模式，對歐洲造成「巨大的考驗」（huge test）。該報告的作者François Godement說：面對北京採行更強硬的路線，導致規模和嚴重性不斷升級的全球性挑戰，現在正是歐盟領導人醒來的時候了。

報告說：「中國的外交政策專家們認為雷曼兄弟的崩潰不是個案，而是權力分配的結構性改變。從那時起，中國即自信的跨越對外政策的議題，中國在西藏議題上已多次冷落歐洲人。它對自己侵犯人權態度上更無所謂，也加深了與朝鮮的經濟聯繫...，同時延宕伊朗案的進度。

「在哥本哈根氣候會議上，中國用強硬的手段，[預防]對發展中國家有約束力的協議…。總之，中國已經重挫希望增加全球責任分擔的希望，而追求一己的經濟和戰略利益。」

Godement認為，歐洲假設中國在發展成為現代且全球大國，將採行現代、西方風格的「價值觀和利益」，但現在卻每天暴露其缺陷。他說，中國在維護國際秩序上只是奉行「無倫理」（normless）或無核心價值的外交政策與「最小」的承諾。中國對透過聯合國促成多邊全球貿易制度，興趣缺缺，只在次區域和雙邊協議的上促進其國家目標。

一個例子是上週與哈薩克簽訂天然氣管道協議，這是北京在中亞地區雄心勃勃的能源戰略一部分。但還有許多例子，包括在斯里蘭卡，孟加拉國和巴基斯坦的深水港口建設項目、與東南亞的貿易協議，以及許多和非洲國家的雙邊資源計劃。

該報告的結論說，歐盟應該在歐洲人最關切的議題，如氣候變化，核武擴散，人權，貿易和投資上，對中國採取一個堅定的、附帶條件的和一致的途徑。

事情似乎越來越明顯了，和美國一樣，歐洲必須準備好面對未來中國以武力（硬實力）保護其迅速增長的利益。美國評論家認為這已經發生在台灣身上了，並迅速的在北京試圖主宰南中國海身上。

Daniel Blumenthal在外交政策雜誌網站寫道：「這並不是說中國有一個統治世界的大藍圖。相反的，像所有崛起大國（包括19世紀的美國在內）一樣，其發展的邏輯會要求它想有更大的國際空間。」他預測，中國遲早將發展遠征部隊，在如中亞等地區的和戰略領域捍衛其利益。

希臘現在可能是安全的。但這樣做是飲鴆止渴。

The Chinese behemoth awakes  ●Guardian（2010.06.17）Simon Tisdall

The trade deal with Greece is the latest in a series of increasingly aggressive moves by China to extend its influence

China's forceful intervention in the Greek debt crisis this week has given harassed European leaders meeting at today's EU summit a sharp reminder of the challenges posed by Beijing's relentless, expansive, and not always benign pursuit of global interest and influence. What was seen in Athens as a potential financial lifeline was, for others, a troubling sign of a future made in China.

Chinese vice-premier Zhang Dejiang agreed shipping, tourism and telecommunications deals worth several billion Euros during the second visit to Athens in four weeks by a high-ranking Beijing official. The investment package, reportedly the biggest ever by China in Europe, was a welcome shot in the arm for the beleaguered Greek government.

But Radio Free Europe commentator Breffni O'Rourke highlighted the intervention's wider significance for Europe as a whole. "The Chinese are hard-headed realists and they recognise in Greece the ideal portal for exports to the Balkans. They have decided to establish a bridgehead there at a moment when the terms are most favourable," he said.

Another example of China's lengthening reach was this week's report that state-controlled PetroChina might consider a takeover bid for BP, whose share price has plunged following the Gulf of Mexico spill. Such a takeover would create a giant company with 73% more oil reserves than ExxonMobil and 187% more than Shell.

By way of counterbalance, China's firmly rooted reluctance to support policies inimical to its economic prospects and geopolitical influence has also been on display. Tough sanctions on Iran agreed by the EU this week specifically prohibit new energy sector investment and sales. But German manufacturers predict that Chinese firms that suffer no such official inhibitions and are already big investors in Iran will simply supplant European businesses.

Beijing is nothing if not consistent. It successfully forced the Security Council to water down the latest UN sanctions against Tehran. It is pressing ahead with a deal to build two civilian nuclear reactors in Pakistan despite western proliferation concerns. And it has steadfastly refused to condemn its nuclear armed ally, North Korea, for the March sinking of a South Korean naval vessel.

A report published this week by the independent London-based think tank, the European Council on Foreign Relations, discerns an increasingly negative pattern in Chinese behaviour, which, it claims, poses a "huge test" for Europe. It's time EU leaders woke up to the scale and escalating seriousness of the global challenge posed by Beijing and took a tougher line, the report's author, François Godement, said.

"Chinese foreign policy experts saw the collapse of Lehman Brothers not as a one-off crisis but as a structural change in the distribution of power. Since then, China has become assertive across a range of foreign policy issues," the report said. "China has repeatedly snubbed Europeans [over] Tibet. It has become even less apologetic about its human rights violations, has deepened economic ties with North Korea … and slowed down progress on Iran.

"At the Copenhagen climate conference, China used tough tactics to [prevent] an agreement on a binding commitment for developing countries … In short, China has frustrated hopes for increased global responsibility-sharing while pursuing its own economic and strategic interests."

Godement argued that European assumptions that China would adopt modern, western-style "values and interests" as it developed into a modern, global power were now daily exposed as flawed. If anything, he said, China was pursuing a "normless" or values-free foreign policy with "minimal" commitment to upholding the international order. It was not so much interested in multilateral agreements brokered through the UN or the global trading system as in subregional and bilateral deals furthering its national aims.

One example is last week's gas pipeline agreement with Kazakhstan, part of Beijing's ambitious energy strategy in central Asia. But there are many others, including its deep-water port-building projects in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Pakistan, trade deals in south-east Asia, and numerous bilateral resource projects in African countries.

The EU should adopt a hard-nosed, conditional and unified approach to China to have any chance of holding its own on the issues that matter most to Europeans, such as climate change, proliferation, human rights, and trade and investment, the report concluded.

That said, it seems increasingly clear that Europe, like the US, must prepare for the day when China seeks physically to protect its burgeoning interests with "hard power". American commentators suggest this is already happening in relation to Taiwan and, increasingly, in Beijing's attempts to dominate the South China sea.

"It is not that China has a masterplan for world domination. Rather, like all rising powers (19th-century America included), the logic of its growth requires it to play a greater international role," wrote Daniel Blumenthal on the Foreign Policy magazine website. Sooner or later, he predicted, China would develop expeditionary land forces to defend its interests in the region and in strategic areas like central Asia.

Greece is probably safe for now. But it wouldn't do to be complacent.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/17/china-greece-power