經濟學人世界新聞簡訊 - 2023/9/29

歐洲經濟硬著陸已至

歐洲央行已停止加息。這是市場根據近期經濟數據和央行聲明得出的結論，該聲明表明利率已足夠高。週五發布的歐元區通脹數據可能會證實這一評估。

The European Central Bank is done raising interest rates. That is the conclusion of markets from recent economic data and statements by the bank which indicated that rates are high enough. A release on Friday of euro-zone inflation data may confirm that assessment.

經濟活動仍在下降，通脹也隨之下降。9月份的採購經理人指數顯示，歐元區經濟仍處於衰退狀態，但不如8月份嚴重。來自西班牙的通脹數據顯示，該國經濟受到的衝擊不如其他經濟體嚴重，目前的能源價格小幅上漲只會推動通脹小幅上漲。來自德國的數據顯示，通脹率正在快速下降，目前已降至4.3%，因為去年夏天的能源和交通價格補貼已從指數中剔除。但這仍然是歐洲央行約2%目標的兩倍。到通脹降至該水平時，歐元區經濟可能已深陷衰退。

Economic activity continues to decline, and so does inflation. The purchasing managers’ index for September showed that the euro-zone economy remains in recession, albeit not as strongly as in August. Inflation data from Spain, which has not suffered as much as other economies, suggests that the current slight increase in energy prices is only pushing inflation up a little. Data from Germany suggests that the rate of inflation is falling fast, to now just 4.3%, as energy and transport price-subsidies from last summer drop out of the index. But that is still double the ECB target of about 2%. By the time inflation comes back down to that level, the euro zone may be deep in recession.

PHOTO: DPA

令人擔憂的是，歐洲經濟正走向硬著陸。這是由於多種因素造成的，包括烏克蘭戰爭、高能源價格和上升的利率。

It is concerning that the European economy is heading for a hard landing. This is due to a number of factors, including the war in Ukraine, high energy prices, and rising interest rates.

歐洲央行決定停止加息是該行擔憂經濟前景的一個跡象。然而，目前尚不清楚這是否足以防止經濟衰退。

The ECB's decision to stop raising interest rates is a sign that the bank is concerned about the economic outlook. However, it is unclear whether this will be enough to prevent a recession.

需要注意的是，歐洲經濟並非鐵板一塊。一些國家，如德國，比其他國家更容易受到經濟衰退風險的影響。然而，歐元區所有國家都可能經歷不同程度的經濟放緩。

It is important to note that the European economy is not a monolith. Some countries, such as Germany, are more exposed to the risks of a recession than others. However, all countries in the euro zone are likely to experience some degree of economic slowdown.

政府和央行應該採取措施減輕經濟衰退的影響。這可能包括向企業和家庭提供財務援助，並投資於基礎設施和教育。

Governments and central banks should take steps to mitigate the impact of a recession. This could include providing financial assistance to businesses and households, and investing in infrastructure and education.

_{Sources: https://www.economist.com/the-world-in-brief
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