續 - 淺談美國總體經濟現況與未來發展 (02/2025)

就是這份 S&P Global 對於美國2月份非製造業採購經理人指數 (PMI) 的月初分析讓美台股市由剛脫離 DeepSeek 泥淖後再度陷入恐慌:

Key findings, February:

Flash US PMI Composite Output Index(1): 50.4 (Jan: 52.7). 17-month low. Flash US Services PMI Business Activity Index(2): 49.7 (Jan: 52.9). 25-month low. Flash US Manufacturing Output Index(3) : 53.8 (Jan: 51.8). 11-month high. Flash US Manufacturing PMI(4) : 51.6 (Jan: 51.2). 8-month high. Data were collected 10-20 February US business activity growth came close to stalling in February, according to flash PMI® survey data, as a renewed fall in services output offset faster manufacturing growth. New order growth also weakened sharply and business expectations for the year ahead slumped amid growing concerns and uncertainty related to federal government policies. The upturn in manufacturing output was also in part linked to the front-running of tariffs, hinting at merely a temporary boost. Input cost pressures meanwhile spiked higher, notably in manufacturing as suppliers passed on tariff-related price hikes and wage pressures persisted. However, intensifying competition helped limit the pass through of selling prices in the services sector, where inflation sank to a near five-year low.

那麼，截至 02/25 真實的美國總經數據與趨勢究竟是如何呢?