The economist #002-Finance and Economic

原文連結

In the article “Why the demographic transition is speeding up”, the author indicates that a new study explicates why the wheel of demographic transition is turning faster than before. Sociologists found the phenomenon of “demographic transition” in global development. In the 18th century the mortality rate fell because people started to value medicine, public health, and nutrition. In the meantime, the fertility rate slipped as people would rather devote whole resources to bringing up fewer children with good education than have more children with poor education. Also, a new outlook and the idea of family planning, germinated in France, were spread throughout Europe and slowed down the birth rate of the European countries. By the 20th century, most developed countries had lower mortality rate and fertility rate, and developing countries are following their steps. However, according to Matthew Delvenhtal et al., the pace of demographic transition seems to hasten, a phenomenon which they term “demographic contagion”. The fertility rate continues dropping, yet the author is still optimistic about the population growth in the future. As for the impacts of population tranition, there are two sides of the same coin. Demographic transition would deteriorate the existing economic problems such as low interest rates, depreciating assets, and global imbalances. On the other hand, it would probably contribute to diminishing carbon emissions, hiring few well-educated employees instead of more incapable workers, and welcoming immigrants as new members to the countries.

文中提到，人口結構在18世紀時，富裕國家開始出現人口轉型。從原本的高出生率、高死亡率開始轉型成低生育率、低死亡率。低死亡率相對好理解，隨著逐漸發展的醫療、大眾健康、營養學，改善了人民的健康進而延長壽命。但是低生育率，可能是由於教育的重視、家庭的計畫，讓生育率下降。文中也提到，全世界的轉型在加速當中，生育率持續下降，但是作者還是對於未來人口增加保持樂觀。稍微查了一下，台灣竟然是全球生育率最低的國家！驚訝卻不意外，在這個房子很貴、物價上漲（最近通膨真的特別有感）、教育問題等等變因很多的時代，我們都沒把握可以把自己照顧好，要怎麼能夠再去承擔另一個人的1/4個人生呢？

-the fashion for… …的流行/ be rooted in 源自於…

The fashion for fewer births was probably rooted both in changes in outlook associated with secularism and the Enlightenment and in the spread of information about family planning.

Eg(MACMILLAN). The fashion for sea bath began in the nineteenth.

- upshot: result

The upshot of this rush into the demographic transition is a steady drop in global fertility and [in] population growth.

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