十拿八勝？且慢舉杯鬆懈

DPP has won eight of ten elections since 2008 according the press.  Some see it the sign that DPP could win the 2012, the Legislators elections and/or the Presidential election.  But it is too naive to predict it now and this way.

The reasons that DPP has land slide lost two elections of 2008 were complicated.  They included CSB's too-rush policy, CSB's family members and close friends doing something illegal, international community opposing "unilateral declaration of Taiwan Independence" and, under these circustances, MYJ's sweet promise and sweet smile.  These factors together cracked the long-term political "market share" of Blue camp: Green camp = 65% : 35%.  This could be seen a short-term malfunction of Taiwan democracy yet Taiwanese people have to pay for it in the long-term.

If this is true, the eight over ten wins could only concluded as gradual swinging back to normal "market share", not yet an assurance to win in 2012.  The single winner system, which has caused DPP the land slide losses of legislators' election in 2008 is still valid.  What is more, the Nov. 26 gun-shot incident which over throw the election is still in the air.  DPP just has no reason to drink champagne now.

Meanwhile, there is a long-term urbanization trend in Taiwan.  KMT won the majority seats in Northern Taiwan from Taipei City to Taichung City, which is in possession of some two thirds of votes in total.  In this advantage the former KMT Secretary General still vowed to focus on Southern Taiwan.  Where is DPP's strategy to meet the demographic change of the long-term urbanization in Taiwan and former KMT Secretary General's vow?

It is not a Buddhist discipline "to respect your enemy" when the Premier Wu said DPP had long tradition at the Southern Taiwan.  Wu has told the truth only if DPP is wise enough to catch the message.

                                      

媒體報導：2008總統大選之後國民兩黨交手十次，民進黨獲得八次勝利。言下之意，民進黨黨祚蒸蒸日上。但綠營且慢舉杯，國民黨從來不是省油的燈，未來當然也不會是。

2008年初兩次大選綠營慘敗有多重原因，包括陳前總統施政躁進、家人干政、國際社會對台灣主體運動的提防與反對「片面宣布獨立」、馬總統的外形與政見誘拐等。一推與一拉，震垮了藍綠長期六成五比三成五的基盤，特別是立委選舉改採單一選區制，讓大量綠營選票被浪費掉。可以說2008年的選舉，是台灣民主體制（暫時？）失靈，以致於人民必須付出重大代價。

2008之後的多次選舉與補選，直到目前為止最多可看為選情慢慢擺回長期態勢，我們還不能說2012年綠營必然能奪回執政權。特別是單一選區制因素尚未改變，以及五都選舉前夕的變盤因素，在在警告綠營仍應步步為營。

另一方面，在台灣都市化的長期趨勢下，國民黨早已站穩都會區還牢牢掌握濃漁會系統，前秘書長仍矢言深耕南部，顯然有「遠慮」。相對於此，綠營如何爭取都會區，特別是從事服務業選民的選票，並提供「可行的」願景，才是其面向未來人口結構的根本之道。

「以敵為師」不僅僅是一句宗教口號。吳院長說：南部本來是綠營的鐵桶。意即，此次選舉根本在意料之中無關痛養，不是沒有道理。只有以民為心，還能虛心傾聽者能得到其中的智慧。