Three Questions That Every Dividend Investor Should Ask Themselves
每位股息投資者應該問問自己的三個問題
Investors purchase dividend stocks in order to generate a reliable source of cash that would help them pay for their expenses in retirement. In theory, this is a great idea. However, certain little details could seriously derail the investor’s success. In order to ensure that they will be able to hit their investment goals, dividend investors should ask themselves the following three questions:
投資者購買配息股是為了一份穩建的收入來源用來支付退休生活的花費。理論上，這是個不錯的點子。然而，一些小細節卻可能會使投資者預期的成功變了調。為了確保投資者可以達到他們的投資目標，股息投資者應該問問自己下面三個問題:1） Is the dividend Safe?
Many dividend investors who are just getting started tend to focus on companies with the highest dividend yields. No one can blame them for this, as it is every investors goal to maximize their investment returns. Investing purely for dividend yield however, could easily backfire without some basic research. The company with a mouth-watering 8% yield today could end up cutting or completely eliminating the distribution, which could lead to loss in dividend income and huge losses. This could derail anyone’s retirement plan. Investors should instead attempt to understand how the company makes money, and should also calculate whether the dividend is adequately covered.I typically look for a margin of safety in dividend coverage. This means that I typically look for a dividend payout ratio of 60% or less, which means that earnings are roughly 67% higher than the dividend paid. This payout ratio fluctuates from year to year, which is why it is important to look at it for the past decade, in order to gauge the sustainability of dividend payment. While there are no guarantees that the dividend would be paid out, even if it is adequately covered, a sustainable distribution increases the odds that the investor would be able to enjoy an uninterrupted stream of dividends.For certain entities such as Master Limited Partnerships or Real Estate Investment Trusts, I tend to prefer a stable or declining ratio of distributions to cash flow from operations ( FFO or DCF).
1）配息的股票就一定安全嗎?
許多股息投資者剛起步時傾向於將焦點放在最高股息收益率的公司上。沒有人可以責怪他們這點，因為每位投資者的目標就是希望自己的投資標的可以達到最高收益。然而，投資若沒有下工夫研究其基本面而純粹只為了收益率，很可能會適得其反。一間擁有8%收益率令人垂涎的公司，也有可能因分配的削減最終造成股息收入的損失或鉅額虧損。這將可能會使投資人的退休計畫成為泡影。投資者除了應該去了解公司是如何賺錢，也應該試著計算其配息是否恰當。通常我會尋找股息保償率在安全範圍內的標的。這意味著我所尋找標的股利發放率通常在60%甚至更低，換句話說，收益大致比支付的股息高出67%。股息發放率每年都可能有波動，觀察過去十年的配息情形來衡量股息支付的持續性顯得格外重要。雖然無法保證一定會配息，只要持續性增加配息的可能性足以得到平衡，投資者將能享受源源不斷的紅利。對於像MLP或REIT性質的標的，我傾向於穩定或調降現金流操作的比例 (FFO or DCF).
Funds From Operations(FFO) 來自營運現金流 / Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) 貼現現金流
*知識家園地*
REIT基金是指以不動產證券化商品為投資標的的共同基金，包含REITs、商業房地產抵押債券 （CMBS）、商業不動產擔保債務憑證（CRE CDO）。參考說明連結:
http://zh.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E4%B8%8D%E5%8B%95%E7%94%A2%E6%8A%95%E8%B3%87%E4%BF%A1%E8%A8%97
MLP 譯為“業主有限合夥” 在美國採用MLP的優點是，它結合了有限合夥的稅收優惠（合夥企業不繳納稅款的利潤 - 這些錢是唯一的徵稅時，基金單位持有人收到發行）與上市公司的流動資金。參考說明連結:
http://greenhornfinancefootnote.blogspot.tw/2012/09/whats-mlp-what-is-master-limited.html
2) Will the dividend grow?
Inflation is the largest enemy of the retired investor. Prices have been on a slow but steady increase over the past century. Even at a modest 3% annual inflation, prices of goods and services will double in 24 years. As a result, investors need to have a stream of income that will increase sufficiently to cover the effects of general price increases. Dividend growth stocks are a perfect investment vehicle for such endeavors.In my portfolio I purchase stocks which have exhibited a strong corporate culture, backed by real profits, which has resulted in long streaks of consecutive dividend increases. Newton’s law that a body in motion will keep being in motion is in full force with dividend growth investing. Just because a company has raised distributions for 20, 30, 40+ years does not mean it is a good buy at the moment however. In general, companies can only afford to grow dividends if they manage to increase profits over time. Investors should thoroughly analyze the company by reading annual reports, analyst reports and keeping up-to-date on any company developments. This is in order to determine whether the possibility of future dividend hikes is higher than average.
2）配息會增長嗎?
通膨是退休投資者的最大敵人。在過去這一世紀，價格呈現緩慢但穩定的增長。雖然通膨率只有溫和性地成長了3%，但商品與服務的價格相較於24年前翻倍增長。從這個結果看來，投資者需要一個能有效成長的收入流來支撐價格普遍上升帶來的影響。投資股息成長股便成為追求這種成果的絕佳投資工具。在我的投資組合當中，我選擇擁有濃厚企業文化及實穩利潤作為後盾的股票，這為我帶來呈長線持續性成長的股息獲利。將牛頓定律中”動作中的物體保持在動作狀態中” 的概念全力套在股息增長投資上。這是因為一間公司20、30、40年來提高了佈局並不代表在當下會是個不錯的買點。通常，如果一間公司設法要隨著時間提高利潤只能靠紅利增長。投資者應該仔細分析閱讀年度報表、分析報告、並持續追蹤公司的發展。這是為了確保未來是否有高於水平成為飆股的機會。
3) Will the company deliver solid total returns?
Many investors seem mesmerized only by dividends, do not do much due diligence on growth, and tend to forget about capital gains in the process. This could be costly to your financial well-being. Historically dividends have accounted for about 40% of total returns over the past 80 years. The remainder has been achieved through capital appreciation in stocks. In general, dividend growth companies with moderate current yields in the 2%- 4% range with payouts below 60% stand a very good chance of delivering solid capital gains over time. This is in addition to the rising dividend payment. While, capital gains are not as reliable for retirees as dividend payments, they do ensure that over time the purchasing power of the investor’s capital is maintained and increased. If all else is true, a company yielding 2% - 4% today that also manages to grow earnings and dividends at a healthy clip, should be able to increase in value over time.This again ensures that my capital maintains purchasing power as well. I do not plan on selling most of the holdings I own, however I do want to see increases in networth over time.
3) 公司能為我們帶來穩健的總收益嗎?
許多投資者似乎只醉心於配息，不勤於追查其成長狀況也總是忘記過程中的資本收益。這可能使你的花費更高的財務成本。在過去80年間歷史紀錄，配息約佔總收益的40%。其餘的已經透過資本增值反映在股票上。一般而言，配息成長的公司在收益率2%—4%且低於60%的支付率時，意味著這是個為我們隨著時間帶來穩健資本利得的好時機。這是有別於增長的股利支付之外。當資本利得對退休投資人而言無法像股利支付一樣可靠時，也能確保投資者的的購買力可以隨著時間的推移保持或提升。如果這一切都是真的，那麼一間收益率只有2%—4%的公司在財務健全的管理下也可能隨時間增長其價值。這又再次確保我的資金可以維持一定的購買力。我並不打算出售我大部分的持股，但我期望預見隨著時間增長的資產淨值。
(譯者:張筱婷 文章來源:http://www.dividendgrowthinvestor.com/)
