2022年1月總結

更新於 2022/02/01發佈於 2022/02/01閱讀時間約 6 分鐘

新年快樂！本月投報率為 -12.49%，真是一個當頭棒喝的新年。就像先前已經一直提到，最近大家都很關注「加息」，這就代表了要重新調整科技成長股的估值，所以這一輪我的持倉就如同先前預料般一直下跌，就像一個無底深潭。情況真的要到了近幾天「加息」預期慢慢定了下來，市況才有一點好轉，但目前還是得謹慎呀。

資產變化

Tesla財報

回歸基本面，來談一下新鮮出爐的TSLA Q4 earnings。這一次的財報，成績依然非常亮麗，直接quote重點。

今年賣了93萬輛車

2022 各 Quarters 賣車情況

記得上一年有分析說今年 Tesla 能賣 100 萬輛車，然後就換來了一大票人的取笑，怎麼可能會有 100% 成長。現在看來也確實沒有，但居然結果是非常接近，也真的是意料之外。

Tesla自己的預計是 50%，當然數字會比較保守一些

然而亮麗的財報換來的卻是股價的暴跌。

2022年1月26日出 Q4 earnings

我普遍聽說的原因是

加息環境的發酵。
明年不會出新車型 (Cybertruck、Tesla semi 等等)。
明年業務還會繼續受到供應鏈的影響。

大環境的東西我就不多作評論了，但其他兩點，聽一下 Elon Musk 在 Q&A 說的話，其實就不難理解了。

The fundamental focus of Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year, if we were to introduce new vehicles, our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not -- a lot of people do not understand.

......

And as a result, we were able to grow almost 90% while at least almost every other manufacturer contracted last year. So that's a good result. But if we had introduced, say, a new car last year, we would -- our total vehicle output would have been the same because of the constraints -- the chips constraints, particularly.

「開發新車，工廠會忙不過來，反而拖累目前熱賣車款的製造。」

然後有人問 Elon Musk 還打算搞「$25,000車」嗎？他的回應如下。

Well, we're not currently working on the -- on a $25,000 car. We -- you know, at some point, we will, but we have enough on our plate right now, too much on our plate, frankly. So, you know, at some point, there will be. I think that's sort of a question that -- it's sort of the wrong question, really. It's -- really the thing that overwhelmingly matters is when is the car autonomous? I think, at the point in which it is autonomous, the cost of transport drops by, I don't know, a factor of four or five.

「把 FSD 搞出來，成本就下來了，$25,000車不是重點。」

說到自動駕駛 FSD，Elon Musk 說今年內一定搞得定，不過我記得他2020年也是這樣說的，後來就說自己低估了搞 FSD 的難度，所以我想就別跟車太貼了。

And I think we are completely confident at this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we'll achieve full self-driving this year, yeah, with data safety level significantly greater than the present. So it's -- you know, the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self-driving by a software update, I think, might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. We shall see.

「他個人預期今年內搞定 FSD，然後 FSD 會成為 Tesla 一個在財務上非常核心的業務。」

其實 Q&A 裡還有提到汽車保險、Megapack、Powerwall之類的業務，不過這邊就不多講了。