阿爾及利亞與摩洛哥緊張關係(The Economist)
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阿爾及利亞與摩洛哥緊張關係(The Economist)

2022-05-13|閱讀時間約 17 分鐘
The Eoconomist 本周5/14最新的文章《Algeria’s ailing rulers stir tension with Morocco》,指出這幾年來的兩國衝突,其實隱藏著阿爾及利亞,想要藉此轉移國內政治的不滿情緒,尋找一個對外的宣洩出口。
They may hope that a crisis with the neighbours will distract from problems at home
阿爾及利亞希望這場與鄰居的危機,可以分散對國內問題的注意力。
The Economist
These should be heady times for the world’s tenth-largest producer of natural gas. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent European governments scrambling for new supplies. Algeria sends more than 80% of its gas exports to Europe. Most is piped to Spain and Italy (see map). As the continent’s third-biggest supplier, it should be investing in new capacity to produce and transport more of the stuff. Instead it is threatening to send less.

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭,使歐洲各國政府爭相尋找新的供應者。

這對於世界第七大天然氣生產國應該是最興奮的時刻,阿爾及利亞80%以上的天然氣出口到歐洲,主要運到西班牙和義大利(下圖),作為歐洲第三大供應者,他應該要投資新的產能,以生產、運輸更多;相反的,阿爾及利亞卻威脅要減少運量。
The Economist
Last year Algeria shut a pipeline that runs to Spain via Morocco. The closure was an act of pique towards Morocco, which takes 7% of the flow as a royalty and gets almost all of its natural gas from Algeria. Spain still receives Algerian exports through a smaller undersea pipeline that bypasses Morocco. However, last month Algeria threatened to close that, too, after Morocco asked Spain to send it gas by reversing the flow of the now-idle Morocco-Spain pipeline. Algeria said it would stop all gas exports to Spain if it did so.
去年,阿爾及利亞關閉經摩洛哥至西班牙的管道。起因是對摩洛哥的不悅,因為摩洛哥將7%的流量當特許權使用費,並從阿爾及利亞獲得大多數的天然氣。
西班牙依然從較小的海底管道、繞過摩洛哥,接受阿國的天然氣。然而,阿國上個月威脅如果這樣,它也要關閉這條,因為摩洛哥要西班牙將天然氣,通過目前閒置的管道,運往摩洛哥。

虛張聲勢的阿爾及利亞?

That may well be bluster: Algeria does not want to lose Spanish cash. In any case, Algeria’s inflammatory talk has much to do with its troubled domestic politics. But the threats are exacerbating Algeria’s long feud with Morocco. Well-connected Algerians say the stand-off with their neighbour could even tip into war.
這可能是虛張聲勢:阿爾及利亞不會想要失去西班牙的錢。無論如何,阿爾及利亞煽動性的言論,和它陷入困境的國內政治有很大的關係。但這些威脅,正在加劇阿爾及利亞與摩洛哥兩國的長期爭執。人脈很廣的阿爾及利亞表示,與鄰國的對峙,甚至可能引發戰爭。

兩國的愛恨情仇

Tensions between the two countries date back to 1963, when they fought a brief “sand war” over a strip of borderland a year after Algeria had won independence from France. Since then, ideological rivalry has deepened. Morocco is a conservative, pro-Western monarchy, whereas Algeria was a prominent member of the Non-Aligned Movement and friendly to the Soviet Union. The land border between the two has been closed since 1994, to the joy of smugglers and the annoyance of everyone else.
兩國之前的緊張關係可回溯到阿爾及利亞從法國獨立後的一年,1963年「沙戰」,從那時起,意識形態的對立就更嚴重了。
摩洛哥是保守的親西方君主制國家,而阿爾及利亞是不結盟運動(Non-Aligned Movementm, NAM)的重要成員之一,並與蘇聯友好。兩國邊境自1994年就關閉至今,讓走私者開心、卻讓其他人困擾。
The War Of Sands Between Morocco And Algeria

雙方背後偷偷下的棋子

In the 1970s Algeria began backing the Polisario Front, a guerrilla group seeking independence for Western Sahara, which Morocco grabbed in 1975 after the departure of Spain, its colonial ruler. The decision to close the pipeline is linked to events in Western Sahara, where Morocco has been gaining ground both militarily and diplomatically.
從1970年起,阿爾及利亞就一直在背後支持「波利薩里奧陣線 Polisario Front」--- 一個尋求西撒哈拉地區獨立的游擊隊組織,也是摩洛哥從1975年自西班牙離開西撒拉後,奪取的地方。阿爾及利亞關閉天然氣管道,是和西薩哈拉爭議有關,因為摩洛哥在軍事上、外交上都取得進展。
It may not mean immediate pain for Morocco’s economy. About 60% of its energy comes from oil. Two gas-fired plants are switched on only to handle peak demand. Officials have discussed buying cargoes from Qatar, the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. Morocco has issued tenders for a regasification plant. It is also pushing ahead with renewables.
關閉天然管道,可能不會立即影響摩洛哥經濟,因為它的能源60%來自石油。兩個燃氣發電場,僅有在高峰期使用。官方討論過要從世界最大的液態天然氣國家--卡達,進口貨櫃。摩洛哥已進行再氣化廠的招標案,並積極推動可再生能源。
Lately Algeria’s grievances have grown. International news organisations reported last year that Morocco had used Pegasus, a powerful spyware tool made by Israel’s nso Group, to snoop on the phones of some 6,000 Algerians, including politicians and generals. Morocco denies this.
最近,阿爾及利亞的不滿增加中。國際報導指出,摩洛哥使用「飛馬Pegasus」(以色列NSO集團所製造的強大間諜軟體),竊聽6,000名阿爾及利亞人的電話,其中包含政治家、將軍。摩洛哥則否認這項報導。
Mindful of Algeria’s support for Polisario, Morocco’s ambassador at the un has called for self-determination in Kabylie, a restive mainly Berber region of northern Algeria. Algeria saw this as a threat. It even blamed Morocco for devastating wildfires last summer. King Mohammed of Morocco tried to lower the temperature last year, calling for dialogue in his annual speech from the throne. But Algeria seems less keen on reconciliation.
別忘了,阿爾及利亞支持「波利薩里奧陣線Polisario」,摩洛哥駐聯合國大使也呼籲「Kabylie卡比利」實現民主自決,一個位於阿爾及利亞北部、以柏柏爾人為主的區域。
阿爾及利亞視此為一個威脅,並且甚至將去年夏天國內一場森林大火,怪罪於摩洛哥。摩洛哥穆罕默德國王去年試圖降溫、呼籲對話,但是阿爾及利亞似乎不太熱衷和解。

阿爾及利亞失業率達12%,年輕人失業率更高;去年通貨膨脹更達8.5%

Algeria is in a bad way. A movement called the hirak led protests that resulted in the overthrow three years ago of Abdelaziz Bouteflika after 20 years in power. The protesters had hoped that a new generation of leaders would emerge. Instead his fall only formalised the rule of Le Pouvoir, a clique of grey men who ran the show from the shadows throughout Bouteflika’s long rule. They have done little to reform a hidebound economy or clean up corruption. Unemployment is around 12%, and higher for the young. Inflation hit 8.5% last year.
阿爾及利亞狀況不好。一個名為「hirak」的運動,領導抗議群眾,讓執政20年的總統Abdelaziz Bouteflika在2019年被罷免。抗議者曾希望新一代領導人會出現。
但是,總統下台只是確立了「Le Pouvoir (權力)」的執政,一群在前任總統統治下,長期背後運作的老人。他們在墨守成規的經濟、整治貪腐上,做的很少。失業率達12%,年輕人失業率更高。去年通貨膨脹達8.5%。

兩國的裝備競賽

A crisis with Morocco is a way to rally increasingly frustrated Algerians. Both sides seem geared up for conflict. Algeria and Morocco have the second- and third-largest armies in Africa. With a defence budget of $9.1bn, Algeria is the world’s sixth-biggest arms importer. Morocco spent $5.4bn on its armed forces last year, up by about a third from 2019. It ranks in the world’s top ten for military spending as a share of gdp; algeria’s is 5.6% versus 4.2% for Morocco. Algerians, however, sound less keen on conflict than their leaders do. Younger ones may prefer their government to focus on jobs and the economy rather than rattle sabres at its neighbour.
與摩洛哥的危機,正好可以團解越來越沮喪的阿爾及利亞人。雙方似乎都為了衝突做好準備。阿爾及利亞和摩洛哥在非洲,是第二、第三大軍隊。阿爾及利亞國防預算為9.1億美元,是世界第六大武器進口國。摩洛哥去年國防預算花了5.4億美元,比2019年多了三分之一。
摩洛哥軍費開支佔GDP比例,位居世界前十大,阿爾及利亞為5.6%、摩洛哥為4.2%。阿爾及利亞雖然聽起來,不像他們的領導人那樣熱衷於衝突,年輕人可能比較希望政府多關注在經濟,而不是對鄰國大發雷霆。

西班牙不想"再"承受移民潮

Europeans, too, are wary of events across the Mediterranean. Last year Spain got more than 40% of its natural-gas imports from Algeria. A rupture would hit hard, just when energy prices are already sky-high. The Ukrainian war has prompted Spain to forswear Russian gas. It cannot afford to lose another supplier. On top of that, a conflict between nearby Arabs could mean a wave of migrants. In short, nobody would benefit.
歐洲也對地中海地區保持警惕。去年,西班牙超過40%天然氣,是來自阿爾及利亞。當能源價格已經很高的時候,一場「破裂」將會傷得很重。
烏克蘭戰爭已經促使西班牙斷然放棄俄羅斯天然氣。西班牙不可能承受再失去一個供應管道。最重要的是,附近阿拉伯人間的衝突,可能會導致一波移民潮。總而言之,沒有人會受益。
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