菲律賓有可能允許美國擴大在境內駐軍◎VOA（2012.01.26）
【Comment】
Apparently, the US's containment against China in the West Pacific region is forming. However, it takes long time to achieve. Incidents might boost the pace.
毫無疑問的，美國的對中包圍網在成形中。但，相關國家也都謹慎行事，深怕操之過急而壞事。
菲律賓有可能允許美國擴大在境內駐軍◎VOA（2012.01.26）
http://www.voanews.com/cantonese/news/CN-1930514-US-PHILIPPINES-138112998.html
據報道，美國正與菲律賓商討一項協議，增加美國在菲律賓的駐軍。據《華盛頓郵報》星期四引述兩國政府官員的消息話，談判還處於初期階段，但雙方都傾向達成協議。《華盛頓郵報》說，雙方將考慮在菲律賓駐紮美國海軍軍艦，定期輪流部署軍隊，以及更加頻繁地舉行聯合軍事演習。但預計協議不會涉及建立美軍自己的軍事基地。目前大約有600名美國特種部隊派駐菲律賓，為當地軍隊和與基地組織有聯繫的反政府力量作戰提供咨詢。在1992年，由於菲律賓國會未能達成延長美國駐軍的協議，美軍被迫從一個大型海軍基地撤出。這份報道引述一名未透露姓名的菲律賓官員話，他們的首要任務是加強海上防務，尤其是在自然資源豐富的南中國海。中國政府對一系列有爭端島嶼的主權宣示越來越強硬。雖然美軍在90年代因為菲律賓國會反對續約而撤出蘇碧灣海軍基地。不過澳大利亞新南威爾士大學的東南亞事務專家塞耶認為，菲律賓領袖目前要求美國援助，抵禦中國軍力增長與中菲兩國在南中國海繼續不斷的爭議。塞耶說，近日菲律賓國內的民族主義抬頭，因為自從舊年與中國在菲律賓海域發生的衝突事件顯示出，菲律賓無能力在有爭議海域單獨宣示主權。
Philippines may allow greater U.S. military presence in reaction to China’s rise◎WP（2012.01.26）
Two decades after evicting U.S. forces from their biggest base in the Pacific, the Philippines is in talks with the Obama administration about expanding the American military presence in the island nation, the latest in a series of strategic moves aimed at China.
Although negotiations are in the early stages, officials from both governments said they are favorably inclined toward a deal. They are scheduled to intensify the discussions Thursday and Friday in Washington before higher-level meetings in March. If an arrangement is reached, it would follow other recent agreements to base thousands of U.S. Marines in northern Australia and to station Navy warships in Singapore.
Among the options under consideration are operating Navy ships from the Philippines, deploying troops on a rotational basis and staging more frequent joint exercises. Under each scenario, U.S. forces would effectively be guests at existing foreign bases.
The sudden rush by many in the Asia-Pacific region to embrace Washington is a direct reaction to China’s rise as a military power and its assertiveness in staking claims to disputed territories, such as the energy-rich South China Sea.
“We can point to other countries: Australia, Japan, Singapore,” said a senior Philippine official involved in the talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity because of the confidentiality of the deliberations. “We’re not the only one doing this, and for good reason. We all want to see a peaceful and stable region. Nobody wants to have to face China or confront China.”
The strategic talks with the Philippines are in addition to feelers that the Obama administration has put out to other Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam and Thailand, about possibly bolstering military partnerships.
The United States already has about 600 Special Operations troops in the Philippines, where they advise local forces in their fight with rebels sympathetic to al-Qaeda. But the talks underway between Manila and Washington potentially involve a much more extensive partnership.
Officials in the Philippines — which has 7,107 islands — said their priority is to strengthen maritime defenses, especially near the South China Sea. They indicated a willingness to host American ships and surveillance aircraft.
Although the U.S. military has tens of thousands of troops stationed at long-standing bases in Japan, South Korea and Guam, as well as the island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, it is seeking to solidify its presence in Southeast Asia. Some of the world’s busiest trade routes pass through the South China Sea and the nearby Strait of Malacca.
Instead of trying to establish giant bases reminiscent of the Cold War, however, Pentagon officials said they want to maintain a light footprint.
“We have no desire nor any interest in creating a U.S.-only base in Southeast Asia,” said Robert Scher, a deputy assistant secretary of defense who oversees security policy in the region. “In each one of these cases, the core decision and discussion is about how we work better with our friends and allies. And the key piece of that is working from their locations.”
Manila and Washington signed a subsequent agreement that allows U.S. forces to visit the archipelago or deploy there periodically while remaining under U.S. legal jurisdiction. The constitution of the Philippines forbids foreign military bases without a treaty.
“There are political sensitivities, and the U.S. is aware of that,” said a senior Philippine official, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss confidential deliberations. “So how can we achieve that presence without it costing too much in terms of political friction?”
Philippine officials said they favor allowing the United States to deploy more troops or ships, as long as they rotate periodically or are considered temporary.
Temporary, however, can still mean a long time. The 600 U.S. Special Operations troops in the Philippines have been on the southern island of Mindanao since 2002, and there is no firm timetable to withdraw them.
The number of port visits by U.S. Navy ships has soared in recent years. The Philippines recently acquired a cutter from the U.S. Coast Guard and is seeking two more of the ships to boost its naval forces. It also wants to buy F-16 fighter jets from Washington.
In interviews, neither Philippine nor Obama administration officials would rule out a return by U.S. ships or forces to Subic Bay. The harbor is now a thriving economic hub and free-trade zone, so any American military presence would pale in comparison with the old days.
But even a small, visiting U.S. force in the Philippines would send a strong signal to Beijing. Although Washington has said it is not trying to contain China’s rise as an economic and military superpower, Obama announced a new military strategy this month under which the Pentagon will “rebalance” the armed forces toward the Asia-Pacific region in the aftermath of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
‘A necessary normal’
Some advocates said the shift in emphasis to Asia was long overdue, given its economic importance and China’s rise.
“I don’t really see this as a pivot. . . . What I see now is a return to a necessary normal,” said Sen. James Webb (D-Va.), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific affairs. “The presence of the United States has become the essential ingredient for stability.”
In addition to the Philippines, Vietnam — another country that once shunned the U.S. military — is restoring ties. In August, a U.S. Navy ship visited the Vietnamese naval base at Cam Ranh Bay for the first time in 38 years. Cam Ranh Bay is a deep-water harbor that served as one of the largest American military installations during the Vietnam War. Vietnam, which has its own territorial disputes with China, has slowly opened its bases to the U.S. Navy for port visits and ship repairs since 2009.
“I don’t see in the near future an American base in Vietnam, but we have seen much more increased military cooperation,” said Webb, a former Navy secretary who fought in Vietnam as a Marine. “They’re not shutting down their relationship with China, but they’re attempting to balance it.”
Adm. Jonathan W. Greenert, chief of naval operations, has called Southeast Asia the region with “perhaps the greatest potential in the future” for the Navy to increase its presence through military partnerships. In a Jan. 10 speech to the Center for a New American Security in Washington, he singled out the Philippines as a country “where perhaps there will be more opportunities emerging,” although he didn’t elaborate.
Greenert cautioned that some of those partnerships would be limited, saying, “Not everybody is interested in getting in an alliance and getting tied up in a long term.” He cited Vietnam as an example. “We don’t want to push it too hard,” he said. “If you move a little too fast, there’s a hesitation.”
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