Few words on 〈美國會介入保衛台灣嗎？要問日本〉
The author concludes the article with a specific note: “This reporting was made possible by a grant from the Foreign Press Center Japan.” This implies that the article received support from the Japanese government or a semi-official entity, as the experts she interviewed provided insights into various perspectives.
Therefore, if readers view this article in this way, there is no issue: The author aims to alert Japan to a tangible crisis, acknowledging the difficulties and emphasizing the need for a serious response to these challenges. Japan is also actively undergoing transformation. Thus, this article can be considered a reminder directed at the general public in Japan, rather than an official advisory. The journalist also outlines several points:
- If China invades Taiwan, it may trigger the U.S.-Japan alliance, or may not.
- If the U.S. hesitates to intervene, it could lead to the collapse of the U.S.-Japan alliance and withdrawal from the Western Pacific.
- If Japan does not take action quick, it may result in the breakdown of the U.S.-Japan alliance, with Japan becoming a vassal state of China, along with South Korea, the Philippines etc.
- China is well aware of the above points and their consequences.
In this context, the vulnerability of alliance nations lies in the fact that a smaller member as well as the enemy, knowing the consequences, intentionally disrupts the situation.
As the author mentioned at the beginning of the article, the article is a political war-game, more challenging and complicated than a military war-game. The primary value of the article is not the quick conclusion as Chinese people like most, but in the process of idea-building, the Western people focus more. In summary, the more relevant countries take a serious approach towards China's expansion, the more cost China has to pay in its invasion. By comprehensively addressing and preparing for potential situations, it constitutes a civilian approach to "halting" conflict (not just "avoiding" it), if not actively pursuing peace.
作者在〈美國會介入保衛台灣嗎？要問日本〉一文末特別加註「本報導是在日本外國新聞中心的資助下完成的。」引含了本文是日本政府或半官方第三部門的支持成果。
於是，讀者若這樣看本文就沒問題了：作者旨在提醒日本有切實的危機、雖有困難卻應嚴肅因應困難，而日本也在努力轉變中。因此，本文算是面對日本一般大眾，而不是官方的提醒。
記者也有提到幾個場景：
1. 中國侵略台灣，會引出美日同盟
2. 美國不出手＝美日同盟毀掉＋退出西太平洋
3. 日本不出手＝美日同盟毀掉＋日韓臣屬中國
類似這樣的場景，中國必然知之甚詳。
對於此，同盟大國最怕同盟小國（或敵方）的點就在這裡—某一方明知如此，卻故意將局面搞亂。
本文很像兵推（文章最前有說，政治兵推更難更複雜），最重要的價值並非看結論（中華模式），而是看思路（歐美模式）。
總之，相關國家越來越認真看待中國的擴張，就是在增加中國的侵略成本。只要認真看待並做好準備，就是文民手段的「止戰」（不只是「避戰」）。
