概述
本文梳理了特朗普與習近平在貿易戰中達成的「暫停性」框架，內容包含雙方達成的核心條款、尚未解決的問題、與其他區域舉措的比較，以及對該框架持久性的評估與潛在風險。
貿易協定的核心要點
- 雙方同意回撤大部分近期實施或威脅的貿易限制，進入為期一年的休戰期。
- 重要舉措包括：延遲對稀土出口的新管制一年、推遲對等關稅一年、推遲對黑名單中國企業及其子公司的出口管制一年，以及延緩雙方在航運與港口領域的對立措施。
- 額外條款：美國對中國未管制化學品出口（用於製造芬太尼）徵收20%關稅；中國則承諾加強打擊相關貿易。
- 中國恢復採購美國大豆。
未涵蓋與待解決的關鍵議題
- 關於 TikTok 美國業務的所有權轉讓，以及美國對華半導體投資的前景尚未有明確結論。
- 美國對2020年前部分貿易協議的調查仍在進行，對美對華投資及半導體銷售的明確性不足。
- 台灣議題在雙方表述中均未被提及，缺乏明確討論。
- 在戰略層次上，深層次的經濟矛盾仍未解決，若無其他制裁或危機出現，貿易衝突仍可能再度爆發。
協定的時間框架與持久性評估
- 作為「休戰」，多數條款僅有一年期限，未來可能逐年重新談判，存在高度不確定性。
- 即使簽署，現有關稅（如對華47%的總體關稅）及產業政策分歧仍未解決，貿易關係的結構性矛盾未被根除。
與其他亞洲舉措的比較與戰略意義
- 除了與中國談判，特朗普在亞洲其他國家推動多項合作，以加強對關鍵礦物供應鏈的控制並鞏固區域防務聯盟：
- 與泰國、馬來西亞、日本簽署合作協議，推動關鍵礦物供應鏈多元化。
- 與韓國在核潛艇技術與防務領域加強科技與軍事合作。
- 這些舉措旨在分散對中國的依賴，鞏固美國在亞太的同盟關係，預防未來可能的衝突升級。整體而言，雖然在貿易上有緩和，但在更廣泛的經濟與軍事競爭中，美中對抗仍在持續。
結論與展望
- 這次貿易休戰被視為正向信號，降低了短期再次升級的風險，但歷史上多次「假啟動」與局部升級的經驗顯示，仍存在高度不確定性。
- 未來走向取決於雙方能否解決核心產業政策分歧、在關鍵領域達成實質妥協，以及全球或區域性危機是否會打亂協定框架。
- 整體而言，這場貿易休戰只是美中長期競爭的一部分，全面穩定仍需更多結構性解決方案。
Overview
This article reviews the “temporary” framework reached between Trump and Xi Jinping in the trade war. It covers the core terms agreed upon, unresolved issues, comparisons with other regional initiatives, and an assessment of the framework’s durability and potential risks.
Core Points of the Trade Agreement
- Both sides agreed to roll back most of the recently implemented or threatened trade restrictions, entering into a one‑year truce.
- Key measures include: delaying new controls on rare earth exports for one year; postponing reciprocal tariffs for one year; deferring export controls on blacklisted Chinese companies and their subsidiaries for one year; and suspending confrontational measures in shipping and port sectors.
- Additional clause: The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on China’s uncontrolled chemical exports used to produce fentanyl; China pledged to strengthen enforcement against such trade.
- China resumed purchases of U.S. soybeans.
Uncovered and Unresolved Issues
- The ownership transfer of TikTok’s U.S. operations and the outlook for U.S. semiconductor investment in China remain undecided.
- U.S. investigations into certain pre‑2020 trade agreements are still ongoing, with insufficient clarity on U.S. investment in China and semiconductor sales.
- The Taiwan issue was not mentioned in either side’s statements, lacking explicit discussion.
- At the strategic level, deep‑seated economic contradictions remain unresolved. Without new sanctions or crises, trade conflict could reignite.
Timeframe and Durability Assessment
- As a “truce,” most provisions are limited to one year, with the possibility of annual renegotiation, creating uncertainty.
- Even with the agreement signed, existing tariffs (such as the overall 47% tariff on Chinese goods) and industrial policy differences remain unresolved. Structural contradictions in trade relations have not been eliminated.
Comparison with Other Asian Initiatives and Strategic Significance
- Beyond negotiations with China, Trump advanced multiple initiatives in other Asian countries to strengthen control over critical mineral supply chains and consolidate regional defense alliances:
- Signed cooperation agreements with Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan to diversify critical mineral supply chains.
- Enhanced technological and military cooperation with South Korea in nuclear submarine technology and defense.
- These moves aim to reduce dependence on China, reinforce U.S. alliances in the Asia‑Pacific, and prevent potential future conflict escalation. Overall, while trade tensions have eased, broader economic and military competition between the U.S. and China continues.
Conclusion and Outlook
- This trade truce is seen as a positive signal, reducing the short‑term risk of renewed escalation. However, past experiences of “false starts” and partial flare‑ups suggest high uncertainty remains.
- The future trajectory depends on whether both sides can resolve core industrial policy differences, reach substantive compromises in key areas, and avoid disruptions from global or regional crises.
