Annual inflation cooled last month to the lowest level since

01:07 - Source: CNN Business 01:07 - 來源：CNN商業

MinneapolisCNN  —  明尼阿波利斯CNN —

It’s been a two-year slog of enduring painfully high prices, but the light at the end of the tunnel just got slightly brighter for consumers. 消費者忍受高昂價格的兩年苦行終於有了曙光，但隧道盡頭的光亮只是稍微明亮了一些。

Annual inflation continued its slow-but-steady deceleration in April, according to the latest Consumer Price Index released Wednesday. 根據週三公佈的最新消費者物價指數，年度通脹在四月份繼續緩慢但穩定地減速。

The CPI climbed by 4.9% for the 12 months ended in April, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, representing a slightly slower pace of increase than the 5% in March. It was below economists’ expectations for the number to remain unchanged. 根據勞工統計局的數據，消費者物價指數在截至四月的12個月中上漲了4.9％，這表示增長速度略微慢於三月的5％。這一數字低於經濟學家預期的不變水平。

It’s the 10th consecutive month that the headline CPI rate has slowed, and it’s at its lowest rate since April 2021 — when this bout of painfully high inflation started to spike. 這是連續第10個月CPI核心通膨率減緩，並且是自2021年4月這波痛苦的高通膨開始激增以來的最低水平。

Excluding food and energy costs, which tend to have more volatility, core CPI was unchanged at 5.5% for the 12 months ended in April. 除了食品和能源成本，這些成本往往更具有波動性，核心CPI在截至4月的12個月中保持不變，為5.5％。

On a monthly basis, both the headline and core indexes recorded increases of 0.4%, matching forecasts from economists, some of whom anticipated higher fuel and used car prices to provide some upward pressure. 每月基準指數和核心指數均錄得0.4％的增長，符合經濟學家的預測，其中一些人預期較高的燃料和二手車價格將提供一些上行壓力。

“It’s sticky and bumpy, but make no mistake, inflation is cooling,” Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY, said in a statement. 安永首席經濟學家格雷戈里·達科在一份聲明中表示：“它又黏又凸，但不要誤解，通脹正在降溫。”

April’s data showed that the biggest month-on-month gains seen in the major categories came from used cars and trucks (up 4.4% from March but down 6.6% year-over-year); and gasoline (up 3% from March but down 12.2% annually). Gas prices, which typically rise in April because of higher travel activity, rose in April after OPEC+ announced a surprise production cut. 四月的數據顯示，在主要類別中，月增長最大的來自二手車和卡車（從三月上升4.4％，但同比下降6.6％）和汽油（從三月上升3％，但年度下降12.2％）。由於旅行活動增加，汽油價格通常會在四月上漲，但在OPEC+宣布意外的減產後，四月份汽油價格上漲。

Shelter costs, which account for a good chunk of CPI — about one-third of the main index and 40% of the core — picked up as well, rising 0.4% for the month, which is the smallest monthly increase since January 2022. That large category is expected to “turn over” later this year and more closely reflect the declines seen in the rental market, economists say. There’s a significant lag in how CPI calculates rents versus how they act in the market because of the infrequent timing of when the BLS collects the data, as well as when rents change in leases. 住房成本是CPI的一大部分，約佔主要指數的三分之一和核心指數的40％，也有所上升，當月上漲0.4％，這是自2022年1月以來最小的月度增幅。經濟學家表示，這個大類別預計今年晚些時候會“翻轉”，更接近租賃市場的下降趨勢。由於BLS收集數據的時間不定期，以及租金在租賃合同中變更的時間，CPI計算租金的方式與市場實際情況之間存在顯著的滯後。

A welcome decline — albeit a slight one — came in the category of grocery prices, which fell 0.2% over the month, helping bring the annual rate of inflation there to 7.1%. It’s the second month in a row that food at home prices pared back. Overall food inflation (which includes higher prices at restaurants) was flat for the second month, making it the softest back-to-back reading since mid-2019, noted Daco. 雖然微幅，但食品類別價格有所下降，下降了0.2％，有助於將該項目的年通脹率降至7.1％。這是食品類別價格連續第二個月的下降。總體食品通脹率（包括餐廳的價格上漲）連續第二個月持平，這是自2019年中期以來最緩和的連續讀數，Daco指出。

Prices continued to decline on a monthly basis in key staples such as meats, fruits and vegetables, and dairy products. 主要的食品如肉類、水果和蔬菜以及乳製品等關鍵產品的價格持續每月下降。

Going on two years now, Americans’ budgets have been squeezed by high inflation, which peaked last summer at a 40-year high and has slowly come down amid a protracted Federal Reserve rate-hiking campaign. Since March of last year, the US central bank has raised its benchmark interest rate 10 times in an effort to cool inflation by stifling demand. 現在已經兩年了，美國人的預算受到高通膨的壓迫，去年夏天達到了40年來的高峰，並在聯邦儲備委員會長期加息的行動中逐漸下降。自去年三月以來，美國央行已經十次提高了基準利率，以抑制需求來降低通膨。

Those inflation-busting efforts make it more costly and harder to borrow money, buy a home, purchase a car or grow a business. 這些抑制通膨的努力使得借錢、買房、買車或擴展生意變得更加昂貴和困難。

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has cautioned that the path downward for inflation would be a slow and bumpy one, and it would “take some time” to get the annual rate of price increases back to a more sustainable level. 美聯儲主席鮑威爾警告稱，通脹下降的路徑將是緩慢而顛簸的，需要“一些時間”才能將年度物價上漲率恢復到更可持續的水平。

Andrew Patterson, senior economist in Vanguard’s investment strategy group, said: “This seems like another ‘eye of the beholder’ report with some good news for both sides of the inflation debate — whether or not we’re seeing enough downward trend for the Fed to pause.” Vanguard 投資策略小組的高級經濟學家 Andrew Patterson 表示：“這似乎是另一份『觀察者的眼光』報告，對通脹辯論的雙方都有一些好消息 - 無論聯邦儲備委員會是否看到足夠的下降趨勢而暫停。”

The Fed’s next policymaking meeting is a month from now. Markets are pricing in an 87% chance that central bankers would pause on a rate hike at that June meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool on Wednesday morning. 聯邦儲備委員會下次的政策制定會議將在一個月後舉行。根據周三早上的CME FedWatch工具，市場正在定價中央銀行家在6月份的會議上暫停加息的機率為87％。

“The Fed can’t declare victory yet on the inflation front,” said Ryan Sweet, chief US economist for Oxford Economics. “They’re not going to be able to declare victory for quite some time. It’s going to take several more months before we start to see a lot of relief on the inflation front.” 牛津經濟學首席美國經濟學家萊恩·斯威特表示：“聯邦儲備委員會在通脹方面還不能宣布勝利。他們還無法在相當長的一段時間內宣布勝利。在通脹方面，還需要幾個月的時間才能看到很大的緩解。”

The Fed is paying close attention to how inflation behaves in the services sector, where price hikes can get “sticky” and not abate as quickly, because they’re more heavily tied to workers’ wage growth. The “supercore” services inflation metric that strips housing out decelerated in April to 5.2% year over year, said Megan Greene, global chief economist for the Kroll Institute. 聯邦儲備委員會正在密切關注服務業的通脹表現，因為價格上漲可能會變得“棘手”，並且不會像其他領域那樣迅速消退，因為它們更與工人的工資增長密切相關。Kroll研究所的全球首席經濟學家梅根·格林表示，剝離住房的“超級核心”服務業通脹指標在4月份放緩至年增5.2％。

“Which was at least going in the right direction,” she said. 「至少那是往正確的方向前進，」她說道。

Between now and that June meeting, the Fed will get additional readings on inflation, housing, production and the labor market. On Thursday, that data will include the latest print on producer price inflation (which has cooled considerably in recent months) and jobless claims (which have trended upward). 從現在到那個六月會議之間，聯邦儲備委員會將獲得有關通脹、房屋、生產和勞動力市場的額外數據。在週四，這些數據將包括最新的生產者物價通脹數據（近幾個月已大幅降溫）和失業救濟金申請數據（呈上升趨勢）。

“I think the Fed’s going to hold pat for now, keep rates where they are to the end of the year,” Greene said. 「我認為聯邦儲備委員會現在會保持不變，將利率保持到年底，」格林說。

“This report doesn’t do much to change that. Inflation was always going to be bumpy on the way down; this report was in the right direction, but it doesn’t mean next month won’t be in the wrong direction.” 這份報告並沒有太大的改變。通脹一直會在下降的過程中顛簸不平；這份報告是朝著正確的方向前進，但這並不意味著下個月不會朝著錯誤的方向前進。

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/10/economy/cpi-consumer-inflation-april/index.html

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