【財報分析】簡評NVIDIA(NVDA)最新發布的2023Q3業績

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這兩天市場的焦點莫過於NVDA的財報，就來看看。

NVDA本季的財報非常漂亮，這是毫無疑問的。

營收年增206%，毛利率創高，大幅拉到74%，而且預期下一季的毛利率還會更高，營業利益暴增16倍，營業利潤率57.5%也是新高。淨收入9,243M，暴增超過12倍，淨收入利潤率51.1%，也是創下歷史新高。完全是一份極其暴力的財報。

但財報後NVDA的股價沒有大漲，最主要是因為美國的銷售禁令影響。

受到美國政府禁令影響，預計第四季對中國及其他某些地區（包括越南和一些中東地區國家）的銷售將大幅下降，而這些區域的收入過去一直貢獻數據中心業務的收入約20%至25%。

Toward the end of the quarter, the U.S. government announced a new set of export control regulations for China and other markets, including Vietnam and certain countries in the Middle East. These regulations require licenses for the export of a number of our products including our Hopper and Ampere 100 and 800 series and several others. Our sales to China and other affected destinations derived from products that are now subject to licensing requirements have consistently contributed approximately 20% to 25% of data center revenue over the past few quarters. We expect that our sales to these destinations will decline significantly in the fourth quarter, though we believe they'll be more than offset by strong growth in other regions.

管理層會想辦法推出符合新規的產品，但預計對Q4的貢獻會是微乎其微。

The export controls will have a negative effect on our China business, and we do not have good visibility into the magnitude of that impact even over the long term. We are, though, working to expand our data center product portfolio to possibly offer new regulation-compliant solutions that do not require a license. These products, they may become available in the next coming months. However, we don't expect their contribution to be material or meaningful as a percentage of the revenue in Q4.

不過，他們也強調，即使他們已經將中國排除在Q4指引之外，但預計2023Q4的營收仍然可以達到200億美元，年增231%，較本季的營收年增率更高，並計劃在明年繼續實現成長。

But with the absence of China, for our outlook for Q4, sure, there could have been some things that we are not supply constrained that we could have sold to China but we no longer can. So could our guidance have been a little higher in our Q4? Yes. We are still working on improving our supply and plan on continuing and growing all throughout next year as well towards that.

換言之，即使不算中國的營收，仍然可以撐起整體業績成長。

現在的氣氛有點像是走一步算一步的概念，本季業績絕對是很好，給下一季的指引也是相當不錯（排除了中國還可以有這種指引），但有些人懷疑短期獲利上修的空間已經越來越小，明年的增長狀況可能也比較難說，所以股價在財報後略為降溫一下。

我自己怎麼看？

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