韓當頭：美韓新的〈共同局地挑釁應對計畫〉

【Comment】

美韓3月22日簽署的the Counter-Provocation Plan，其內容雖保密中，但「在地主國的領銜下美軍介入戰鬥」，這是已經明記在去年元月的國防部戰略評估報告中。

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對付北韓挑釁 韓美加強合作◎中央社（2013.03.25）http://www.cna.com.tw/News/aOPL/201303250138-1.aspx

（中央社記者姜遠珍首爾25日專電）南韓與美國於22日簽署「共同局地挑釁應對計畫」，使美軍的介入擴大到發生局部戰爭或回應北韓的挑釁。同時，用美國尖端武器進行報復也已可行，大幅提高對北韓挑釁的遏制力。南韓「中央日報」今天在頭版以「北韓的局地挑釁韓美也將共同對應」為標題，對南韓合參議長鄭承兆和駐韓美軍司令塞曼於22日簽署的「共同局地挑釁應對計劃」，作了前述報導。根據「韓美相互防衛條約」，只有在朝鮮半島發生全面戰爭時，美軍才能自動介入。1994年12月美軍已將平時作戰指揮權移交南韓軍方，應對局部挑釁就被劃入南韓國軍自衛權範圍。報導指出，隨著這項計劃生效，美軍介入的範圍擴大到發生局部戰爭或回應朝鮮挑釁，動用美國尖端武器進行報復反擊已經成為可能。
2010年11月23日北韓炮轟南韓延坪島的炮擊戰中，南韓軍方探測裝備只有舊型的反炮兵雷達AN/TPQ-36，因此，無法準確找到挑釁的原點。而且南韓軍方當時的武器就只有4門K-9自行火炮，無法進行充分反擊。在這種情況下，韓美聯參議長在當年12月8日就共同應對計劃的必要性達成協議，經過兩年探討，終於訂出這項計劃。報導指出，計畫簽署後，南韓軍方落後的探測能力可望大幅提高。遭遇挑釁還能動用美方的M109A6自行火炮和導彈等裝備，對遏制來自北韓的挑釁，是令人非常振奮的消息。據報導，南韓國防部長官金寬鎮表示，將韓美共同應對北韓平時的局部挑釁，以文字寫下來，具有劃時代的意義。最重要的是，這一計畫是由南韓軍方主導並制定的第一份聯合作戰計畫。1020325

US, South Korea Agree on Plan if North Attacks◎Military.com（2013.03.25）http://www.military.com/daily-news/2013/03/25/us-skorea-agree-on-plan-if-nkorea-attacks.html?comp=700001075741&rank=2

SEOUL — The U.S. and South Korea signed a contingency plan Friday that gives South Korea both U.S. support and the lead in responding to future North Korea provocations.

The plan is apparently meant to address what one South Korean official described as small-scale “local” North Korean attacks such as the November 2010 shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, which prompted defense officials to begin developing the Counter-Provocation Plan.  That attack on the South Korean border island left four people, including two civilians, dead.

However, a statement released by U.S. Forces Korea offered little information about the contingency plan, including what constitutes a “provocation.”  The definition is important because the top U.S. general in South Korea currently would lead allied operations should war break out with North Korea.

“By completing this plan, we improved our combined readiness posture to allow us to immediately and decisively respond to any North Korean provocation,” the statement said.  “The completed plan includes procedures for consultation and action to allow for a strong and decisive combined ROK-US response to North Korean provocations threats.”

USFK did not say why the plan had been developed or why South Korea will lead the response to any future provocations.

A spokesman for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the contingency plan does not affect U.S. wartime operational control, though he could not specify when an attack will be considered local and when it will rise to the threshold of war.

“It’s hard to answer this,” he said.  “On our end, if there is a local provocation on our land, we have to respond to it.”

He said the increasing seriousness of North Korean attacks prompted the chairmen of both countries’ Joint Chiefs of Staffs to begin considering how to respond to other acts of aggression following Yeonpyeong.  North Korea is believed to have torpedoed a South Korean warship in March 2010, killing 46 sailors on board, though Pyongyang denies involvement in the incident.

North Korea in recent weeks has increased its rhetoric against Washington and Seoul, threatening to turn both into a “sea of fire” following its third nuclear weapons test and the launch of a three-stage rocket.

Speculation has been widespread that the North may undertake some kind of provocation after the current exercises end as a test for South Korea’s new president.  However, the JCS spokesman said his country believes the prospect of a joint U.S.-South Korean response to a localized attack will be a deterrent to the North.

On Thursday, the two countries ended the joint Key Resolve exercise, which was the first to be led by the South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff and not the U.S.-led Combined Forces Command.  The two-week exercise was essentially a dry run for the planned transfer of wartime operation control from the U.S. to South Korea, now scheduled for 2015.

The planned OPCON transfer has been a hot topic of debate in Washington and Seoul for years, given the threat posed by North Korea and varying opinions about whether the South’s military is up to the task of leading the fight should hostilities resume on the peninsula.

The JCS spokesman said the Counter-Provocation Plan signed on Friday was not releasable because of ongoing security concerns with North Korea.  USFK did not respond to a request to provide a copy of the plan.

Stars and Stripes staffers Jon Rabiroff and Yoo Kyong Chang contributed to this report.

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