THE RUMORED “PAYMENT REVOLUTION”: A BEAUTIFUL BUBBLE OF BILLION-DOLLAR FLOWS
In early July 2025, a piece of news swept the financial world. Huatai Securities claimed that stablecoins have become an “important tool” for cross-border payments in Yiwu. Similarly, blockchain company Chainalysis also claimed that the stablecoin flow on Yiwu’s chain will exceed US$10 billion in 2023.
However, reporters discovered a starkly different reality at Yiwu International Trade City. This marketplace serves as the world’s largest small commodity distribution center. The investigation covered 6.4 million square meters of market space.
Reporters randomly visited over 50 merchants selling bags, hardware, and toys. Almost every response was identical: “Don’t accept,” “Don’t understand,” or “Never heard of it.” One jewelry vendor with 12 years in foreign trade stated firmly: “We only accept RMB and US dollar cash. Virtual things are too risky.Only one hardware store owner cautiously admitted to accepting USDT. Nevertheless, he emphasized: “No small orders, and keep it quiet.” The Yiwu Foreign Trade Association revealed that fewer than 0.3% of member units use stablecoins. Furthermore, listed company Yiwu China Commodities City (600415) admitted: “We have no relevant usage data.”
BEHIND THE MERCHANTS’ COLLECTIVE REFUSAL: A LIFE-AND-DEATH GAME OF INTERESTS AND COMPLIANCE
Merchant resistance isn’t merely conservative thinking. Rather, it reflects precise calculations of real interests and risks:
The “Golden Rice Bowl” of Export Tax Refunds
In 2023, Yiwu’s total export tax refunds reached $17.1 billion. Direct refunds alone totaled $15.1 billion. One toy manufacturer calculated the costs: accepting stablecoins means losing bank settlement certificates. Consequently, the 13% tax refund vanishes instantly, cutting profits in half.
The Lifeline of Financing and Exhibition Space
Traditional payment systems generate bank records. These records serve as core evidence for loan applications and Canton Fair booth allocations. “Export volume determines booth size,” explained one clothing company executive. “Who dares risk losing that for slightly lower fees?”
Losing bank records means zero credit loan quotas. Moreover, it could mean missing million-dollar order opportunities.
Policy Red Lines and Account Freezing Risks
China’s central bank has explicitly banned virtual currency-related businesses. Wang Linggang, partner at Jincheng Tongda Law Firm, noted: “Even receiving stablecoins through overseas wallets triggers foreign exchange monitoring alerts when logistics and capital flows don’t match.”
In March 2025, one Yiwu merchant’s USDT receipts were linked to money laundering. His corporate account was frozen for two months, causing over $280,000 in lost orders.
SURVIVAL TACTICS IN HIDDEN CORNERS: 32,000 USDT AND THE SMART “RISK AVOIDANCE GAME”
Although the Yiwu stablecoin data has now been proven to be a rumor, stablecoins still have room for survival：
A Lifeline During Currency Fluctuations
The Turkish lira plummeted 23% in 2024. During this period, some merchants used USDT to lock in USD settlements. They saved $52,000 in profits within a single month. One Middle Eastern buyer explained: “Our currency devalues rapidly. USDT is the only way to quickly convert to dollars.”
The High-Profit Underground World of Intermediaries
Merchants contact “U-dealers” through Telegram. These dealers exchange fiat currency for stablecoins. They buy USDT at $0.98-0.99 and sell at $1.03-1.05. The spread reaches 3-5%. One toy merchant joked: “Save on fees? The middlemen earn all our money!”
Behind the USDT Hype: Real-World Adoption Still a Distant Dream
While USDT is often touted as a promising tool for cross-border payments, the reality on the ground in Yiwu—the world’s largest small commodity hub—tells a different story. Export tax refunds, financing needs, and strict regulatory red lines present formidable barriers to adoption. Currently, only a tiny fraction of merchants cautiously use USDT under highly specific and risky circumstances. The so-called “payment revolution” remains more of a speculative narrative than a practical shift, and the USDT dream may still be far from becoming mainstream reality.
