美前國安顧問麥馬斯特：川普當選美將保台

【雙魚之論】英文拷到 G / D 找中文翻譯

雖然McMaster這樣說，但多半是他本人的觀點。倒是他觀察川普的外交政策哲學建立在共同分攤重擔和互惠的基礎上（ideas of burden-sharing and reciprocity.）是一針見血的。

｢中國無法靠武力達成對台目標」 美前國安顧問：川普當選美將保台    新頭殼 20240510

中國不斷加強對台軍事威脅，中共總書記習近平一再宣稱絕不放棄以軍事暴力手段襲擊台灣，同時又和侵略烏克蘭逾兩年的俄羅斯深化戰略夥伴關係，引起國際社會警戒。曾於前美國總統川普（Donald Trump）政府擔任國安顧問的麥馬斯特（H.R. McMaster）告訴日本媒體，即使川普在今年11月的總統大選後重返白宮，美國仍將致力於保衛日本與台灣。

曾擔任美國陸軍中將的麥馬斯特在2017年2月至2018年4月擔任川普（Donald Trump）政府國安顧問。日經亞洲（Nikkei Asia）今天刊登他3日接受日經網路採訪的內容。麥馬斯特指稱，川普常問「美國的利益為何？為什麼美國必須這麼做？其他國家能多做一點嗎？」這是因為川普的外交政策哲學建立在共同分攤重擔和互惠的基礎上。

麥馬斯特指出，川普假如勝選，將遵守「美日安保條約」，且釣魚台列嶼（日方稱尖閣諸島）適用這份條約。不論11月的選舉是現任民主黨籍總統拜登（Joe Biden）或共和黨籍的川普勝出，贏家都將深信，要確保日本及區域內其他國家的安全及主權，沖繩具有戰略重要性；

麥馬斯特續指，拜登和川普都將認可維持駐沖繩美軍很重要，畢竟「防止戰爭比起必須作戰便宜得多」。針對美日同盟，麥馬斯特則形容這個聯盟對於嚇阻中國挑釁行為至關重要，他說：「假設我們的同盟在軍事和外交上很堅固…可對潛在侵略者釋出有力訊息，尤其是針對中華人民共和國與共軍，告訴他們無法藉由武力達成在印太區域的目標」。

歷任美國政府針對美方可能如何回應中國侵台，都維持「戰略模糊」政策。麥馬斯特在訪問過程中被問及是否認為美國將部署軍隊來防衛台灣時回答：「我認為答案是『會』。」但他也提醒，像跟中國開戰這麼重要的總統決定，應該需要取得國會批准，美國人民必須針對此事透過國會享有發言權。

麥馬斯特強調，美日與其他盟邦加速交付武器給台灣很重要。要避免因為台灣而發生大型戰爭最好的方式就是讓台灣軍隊展現出「有能力（讓中華人民共和國）付出重大代價」。麥馬斯特希望習近平及其軍事領導人了解「他們無法用可接受的代價，透過武力來達成對台目標。」

麥馬斯特也預期，不管是拜登連任或川普重返白宮，美國對北京的政策都將維持一致，對中國的態度或許會是新舊政府間最具連續性的領域。假如川普重新掌權，將對中國不公平的貿易和經濟行為採取「強硬且迅速的行動」，而且就算川普「對中國低價電動車（祭出）約200%的關稅」，他也不會驚訝。

U.S. will defend Japan, Taiwan if Trump wins election: H.R. McMaster    NIKKEI ASIA 20240510

Former security adviser Trump would be 'convinced' of need for troops in region 

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. will remain committed to defending Japan and Taiwan even if Donald Trump returns to the White House after the November election, former national security adviser H.R. McMaster tells Nikkei, saying he thinks the former president would be "convinced of the strategic importance" of American forces in Japan for deterring China.

McMaster, a retired lieutenant general who served the Trump administration as national security adviser for just over a year beginning in February 2017, spoke with Nikkei in an online interview May 3.

"Oftentimes, what President Trump asks is ... 'What is the U.S. interest? Why does the United States have to do this? And can others do more?'" McMaster said, explaining that Trump's foreign policy philosophy is based on ideas of burden-sharing and reciprocity.

When asked whether Trump would retaliate against an adversary that attacked Japanese territory, including a strike on the Senkaku Islands, McMaster cited the U.S.-Japan security treaty.

"I think he would adhere to the treaty," McMaster said, adding that "the Senkakus are certainly part of Japan and would fall into our defense treaty." The uninhabited Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea are controlled by Japan but claimed by China and Taiwan.

McMaster asserted that the winner of the U.S. presidential election would recognize the importance of maintaining the American military presence on Japan's Okinawa island.

He said that "whoever wins" -- whether it is Democratic incumbent Joe Biden or Trump, a Republican -- "will be convinced of the strategic importance of Okinawa" to ensuring the security and sovereignty of Japan and other countries in the region.

"It's much cheaper to prevent a war than it is to have to fight one," he said.

The former national security adviser called the U.S.-Japan alliance crucial to deterring aggressive action by China.

"If we are strong, in terms of our alliance -- militarily, but also diplomatically -- ... that will send a strong message to would-be aggressors -- in particular, the People's Republic of China and the People's Liberation Army -- that they can't accomplish their objectives in the Indo-Pacific region through the use of force," he said.

Successive American administrations have maintained a policy of "strategic ambiguity" regarding the U.S. response to a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. When asked whether he thought the U.S. would deploy troops in defense of Taiwan, McMaster replied, "I think the answer is 'yes.'"

But McMaster said a presidential decision as critical as entering a war with China should need to obtain congressional approval.

"I think the American people have to have a say in that, through Congress," he said.

McMaster stressed the importance of the U.S., Japan and other allies accelerating the delivery of arms to Taiwan, arguing that the best way to avoid a major war over Taiwan is for the Taiwanese military to demonstrate its "ability to inflict huge costs on the [People's Republic of China]."

"We want [Chinese President] Xi Jinping and his military leaders to understand that they cannot accomplish their objectives on Taiwan through force at an acceptable cost," he said.

Senior U.S. military officials have warned that China aims to be ready for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027. Communist China has never ruled Taiwan but claims the island as part of its territory.

China's regional ambitions also should worry Association of Southeast Asian Nations members and other Indo-Pacific countries, McMaster said.

"This is not a choice between Washington and Tokyo on one side and Beijing on the other. It's really a choice between sovereignty and servitude," he asserted. "What the Chinese Communist Party expects from other countries in the region is servitude."

McMaster expects U.S. policy toward Beijing to remain consistent under Biden or Trump, saying there would be "more continuity on the approach to China between administrations than, maybe, any other area."

McMaster said if Trump returned to power, he expected "strong and rapid action ... against Chinese unfair trade and economic practices." Trump has discussed levying tariffs of 60% or more on Chinese imports.

The U.S. has expressed concerns about heavily subsidized Chinese firms flooding the American market with underpriced products. McMaster said he would not be surprised if Trump imposed "something like 200% tariffs on Chinese cheap electric cars."

Others who held senior roles in the Trump administration have expressed concerns about U.S. relations with allies if the former president wins the election.

John Bolton, another former national security adviser, suggested to Nikkei that Trump might seek to amend the U.S.-Japan security treaty or withdraw the U.S. from NATO. Mark Esper, who served as defense secretary, wrote in a memoir that Trump was fixated on the idea of withdrawing U.S. troops from South Korea.

McMaster described comments made by Trump about a potential U.S. withdrawal from NATO as "irresponsible," adding that the remarks were encouraging to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who wants to drive a wedge between Washington and its European allies.

It is important for any president to recognize that "what the president says can either advance U.S. interests and protect against Russian subversion, or it can aid and abet it," he said.

McMaster maintained that the U.S. would not withdraw from NATO, even if Trump returned to the White House.

Though he acknowledged a strain of "neo-isolationism" among some members of the Republican Party, McMaster said those members represented a vocal but small minority within the party. He noted that a major U.S. foreign aid package for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan passed Congress in April over the objections of those members.

McMaster also said he expected a second Trump administration to expand sanctions pressure on Iran, including "secondary sanctions on banks that are engaged in facilitating financial transactions for Iran and its terrorist organizations and proxy forces."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Defense/U.S.-will-defend-Japan-Taiwan-if-Trump-wins-election-H.R.-McMaster