薩姆規則 Sahm rule

以經濟學家克勞迪婭·薩姆（Claudia Sahm）名字命名，她曾是美聯儲和經濟顧問委員會的成員

定義

當美國 3 個月失業率移動平均值，減去前一年失業率低點，所得數值超過 0.5% 時，意味著經濟體正經歷衰退階段。

When the three-month moving average of the national unemployment rate is 0.5 percentage point or more above its low over the prior twelve months, we are in the early months of recession.

這是Sahm 8/2的說法(目前為New Century Advisors首席經濟學家)

薩姆表示，「整體而言，我們確實處在有力的位置，如果我們檢視目前對美國經濟狀況的所有理解，很難說我們正處於衰退中。」

Sahm notes that she doesn't think we are in a recession right now given the current macro-environment, but she believes "that the increases in the unemployment rate and the softening in the labor market is worrisome... and we could end up in a recession in say 3 months, 6 months," which Sahm "is very concerned about."

資料來源：​維基百科、財經M平方、yahoofinance