逐字稿分享 _ Gooaye 股癌_2020/03/02_EP3 ¦ 被嘎的朋友 操作邏輯分享 美國下波危機

介紹：

大叔利用YT的影片和AI初步整理出逐字稿，並搭配AI整理筆記。

大叔不是一個金融投資專業的專家，只是希望分享自己所學有興趣的資訊與知識。

由於逐字稿僅大叔一人校閱，用字可能無百分之百正確，有需要的朋友可善加利用，但也請多加注意。

逐字稿內容可以直接複製弄成SRT檔案，可搭配原Podcast服用。

逐字稿內容：

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歡迎收聽股癌的線上節目第三集,我是謝孟恭

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現在的時間是3月2號的早上11點14分

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那很多網友反應說我們的聲音太小

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那是因為這個後來發現MacBook Pro我開20%就很大聲

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那換成PC一測試就發現真的偏小聲

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那有一位哥，網友建議呢他就講說

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把input調大把compressor開起來壓一下就ok了

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所以我照做了,compressor要開多少我不知道

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但就是把它打開來開一半的位置

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試看看這次聲音會比較好

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我們今天要討論Q&A的部分

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以及武漢肺炎對美中還有台還有世界的影響

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主要就講這些,那先講Q&A的部分

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早上看到博智(8155.TWO)跟倉和(6538.TWO)我們在板上提過的鎖漲停

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那當然我們從來就不是那種

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我們最討厭的那種邀功型的那種老師

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所以會講博智(8155.TWO)跟倉和(6538.TWO)就是進入我們Q&A的第一題

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因為有一個妹妹她私訊我們

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她說,嗨,這兩天你發文的倉和(6538.TWO)跟博智(8155.TWO)我都被嘎空

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嗚嗚嗚,她在哭啦,嗚呼

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掛號以檢討以後絕對不用賭牌

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以後絕對不用賭博的心態去"當沖"

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這邊就看到第一個關鍵字"當沖"

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然後呢說,想問問博智(8155.TWO)當天不想賠錢

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所以改成融券,結果越賠越多

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括號在130空,嗚嗚嗚繼續哭

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所以意思是講說他本來博智(8155.TWO)是想用現沖去空

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然後因為發現被嘎了,不想賠錢就是被嘎嘛

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所以他改成融券

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隔夜,然後說,目前來看是不是早點認賠買回比較好,感謝相助

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那貼了一個對帳單

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就對帳單一看更可怕

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他不是只空博智(8155.TWO)

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他空倉和(6538.TWO),就像他講的

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但是他倉和(6538.TWO)空的位置呢,在235塊

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那他博智(8155.TWO)空的位置呢,在131塊

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146.5還加空

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148又加空

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我給他的回覆是這樣

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不要做短線,不要空強勢股

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不要這樣操作,不然很快會畢業

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QQ,我也傳了QQ給他

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那他在禮拜四的時候呢

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密我說,今天答案揭曉,我的損失沒那麼慘重了

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禮拜四沒有開盤嘛

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所以他講的是禮拜三美國大跌

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那禮拜四又大跌,禮拜五又大跌

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所以等於三天大跌來救他

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結果今天博智(8155.TWO)跟倉和(6538.TWO)說漲停

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這個...

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不是要笑他啦

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就是說,為什麼會跟他講說

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不要做短線,不要空強勢股

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就是有一個指標,技術指標

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叫做布林通道

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BB Bands

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我們先不講太多他的來源

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或是什麼,先講他的原理

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布林通道會在你的技術線圖上面

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畫上下兩條線

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形成一個通道

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上下兩條線他的邏輯是這樣

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兩倍的標準差以內

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95%股價會在這裡面跳動

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所以也就是說,一般來說

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95%的機率股價會在

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他的上下標準差裡面

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就是他的區間裡面遊走

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以飆股來講

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最明顯的

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的跡象就是他頂著

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布林的軌道往上衝

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意思就是講說

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他不是尋常的95%

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他是有人一直在推他

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你先不管他推他的理由

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是什麼

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是先知

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他知道了發生什麼事情

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還是說,他就是在炒作

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還是說

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大股東要搶股權

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很常發生這樣

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我們先不管他理由什麼

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反正就是有人在推他

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他的均線又是很明顯的

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斜率很高的往上推

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所以這種就是我們講的

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強勢股,很明顯很強勢

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每天都有新高價的這種股票

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你千萬不要去放空

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不管你的理由是什麼

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千萬不要

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因為這個就是最直接的逆勢操作

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我們一直在強調的

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不能逆勢操作

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以現實的例子來講

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這就像是去打一場格鬥賽

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如果你要打一場格鬥系列賽

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你要對好幾個對手

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然後你可以選對手

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你要獲得最佳的表現

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你怎麼打

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只有呆頭鵝

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會第一場比賽就挑

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館長那種來打

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你要獲得最佳的表現

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你當然先挑那種最弱的

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最瘦的,看起來弱不禁風的

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先扁這種就對了

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你就可以一直往前進擊

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最後面再去打最難的

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打不贏就算了

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以股票的角度來講

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你就去順勢的操作

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最後面最難的

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把你打回去

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在波段的漲幅裡面

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出現一個超大的跌點

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超大的跌點

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很有可能就是人家出貨之類的

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反正看你怎麼判斷

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我夠了,我獲利出場

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這才是正常的

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現在放空強勢股的做法

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就是我一開始挑最強的打

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奇怪了,你台股1000多檔股票

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你不去挑走勢很弱的

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很殘弱的

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沒有題材的,沒有營收的

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技術線型又不好的

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你不去放空這種

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你去放空很強勢的

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而且你還不知道理由

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你還沒有很有把握的

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就去放空它

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這很奇怪

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這種操作非常奇怪

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這兩支股票今天開盤的時候

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還是綠的

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後來是一路往上衝

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所以我是希望你有回補

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是希望你有回補

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另外一個問題

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另外一位朋友提到說

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聽了你的頻道

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覺得很棒,很認同不要太主觀

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預期市場的觀點

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可不可以聊看看交易系統

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括號,資金分配加減碼

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風險控管

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風險控管剛才那個

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那個妹妹的例子就是

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你放空不要去空

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強勢的股

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那你做多不要去做弱勢的股

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不過當然市場上有一群人

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他們專門在做多弱勢的股

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他們叫什麼

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這些人他們稱自己為價值投資

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我們不在一缸

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那叫什麼

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一桿子打翻一船人

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當然價值投資

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很深奧

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很多價值投資的大師

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就買他的書來看

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我知道

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價值投資真的有這麼一回事

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但是很多人的價值投資

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譬如說他就是用過往的

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本益比

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他去算出一個

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合理的本益比買進的位置

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但是呢

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他這種模型的前提

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是建立在

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業界的行情

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或是這個公司的前景

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都是一直是一致的

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可是問題是在世界上沒有什麼東西是一致的

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他可以賺

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過去的十年

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不代表他可以賺未來的十年

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所以

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剛才講了放空強勢股跟這個

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做多弱勢股

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很多做多弱勢股就是他掉入這樣的陷阱

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他就是在他的股價崩跌的時候

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他覺得他撿便宜了

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但是

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後來會被雜誌訪問

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會上新聞的就是

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他真的上來了超級成功

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他上來成功的就叫做英雄

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那多的是你去撿

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他就嚇死了

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或是說他就從此一蹶不振的一大堆

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那除了這點之外

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還有一個很重要的風險控管就是不要借錢

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因為如果你不借錢的話

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破產跟你一點關係都沒有

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你股市做多

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買進現股了不起就是歸零

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但是如果你今天是像譬如說那妹妹你用空的

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你如果被鎖好幾根漲停

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或是說你反過來你是融資

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然後譬如說像以康友-KY(6452)的例子

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他漲得好好的突然就跌了一大堆的跌點

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從400跌到100多

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你只要遇到一個這樣的案子

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不要說自己遇不到

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都是有機會的

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你只要遇到一次

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然後你的資金又剛好一次放太多

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你就是直接出去

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而且還負債

218

00:08:44,000 --> 00:08:46,000

所以風險控管最主要就是

219

00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,000

不要借錢不要逆勢操作

220

00:08:48,000 --> 00:08:50,000

那這個資金分配跟加減碼

221

00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:52,000

用心裡面去討論

222

00:08:54,000 --> 00:08:56,000

所謂的資金分配加減碼

223

00:08:56,000 --> 00:08:58,000

它難的地方是在於

224

00:08:58,000 --> 00:09:00,000

如果你不是聽消息就亂進場

225

00:09:00,000 --> 00:09:02,000

亂買的散戶

226

00:09:02,000 --> 00:09:04,000

我們先推敲你是有研究的投資人

227

00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,000

當然你會研究他

228

00:09:08,000 --> 00:09:10,000

你會決定要買進真金白銀進場

229

00:09:10,000 --> 00:09:12,000

你一定是有信心

230

00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:14,000

但是信心有時候是雙面刃

231

00:09:14,000 --> 00:09:16,000

有時候變得太有信心

232

00:09:16,000 --> 00:09:18,000

他在買進之後他做的第一件事情

233

00:09:18,000 --> 00:09:20,000

是先算如果我賺30%

234

00:09:20,000 --> 00:09:22,000

我要怎麼花

235

00:09:22,000 --> 00:09:24,000

他不會去算如果我跌30%怎麼還

236

00:09:24,000 --> 00:09:26,000

又是大進大出

237

00:09:26,000 --> 00:09:28,000

大進大出有一個缺點就是

238

00:09:28,000 --> 00:09:30,000

除非這個筆錢真的是你完全用不到

239

00:09:30,000 --> 00:09:32,000

你很灑脫

240

00:09:32,000 --> 00:09:34,000

我認識的這樣的人不多

241

00:09:34,000 --> 00:09:36,000

就是他很明確的知道

242

00:09:36,000 --> 00:09:38,000

我股票的錢就是股票的錢

243

00:09:38,000 --> 00:09:40,000

這種人不多

244

00:09:40,000 --> 00:09:42,000

大部分人還是希望說我可以從股票「賺」補貼生活費

245

00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:44,000

類似這樣的心態

246

00:09:44,000 --> 00:09:46,000

可是這樣就比較可怕一點

247

00:09:46,000 --> 00:09:48,000

因為你就會受影響

248

00:09:48,000 --> 00:09:50,000

所以你可能大進大出的結果

249

00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:52,000

就是你買進然後一跌你就賣掉了

250

00:09:54,000 --> 00:09:56,000

或者是說你買進可是沒漲多少你就賣掉

251

00:09:56,000 --> 00:09:58,000

然後你後來賠交易成本

252

00:10:00,000 --> 00:10:02,000

這種很常發生

253

00:10:02,000 --> 00:10:04,000

所以資金把它拆成好幾個部分是有必要的

254

00:10:04,000 --> 00:10:06,000

因為這會讓你在投資的過程中

255

00:10:06,000 --> 00:10:08,000

心性會比較穩定一點

256

00:10:08,000 --> 00:10:10,000

就以基本面跟技術面兩種進場方式來講

257

00:10:10,000 --> 00:10:12,000

基本面你會算出一個合理的價位

258

00:10:12,000 --> 00:10:14,000

所以你講的很甜的價位

259

00:10:14,000 --> 00:10:16,000

跌到某個價位很甜你就去買

260

00:10:16,000 --> 00:10:18,000

但很多時候就是事與願違

261

00:10:18,000 --> 00:10:20,000

甜還有更甜

262

00:10:20,000 --> 00:10:22,000

然後最後又甜到出汁，甜到出水

263

00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:24,000

一直往下跌

264

00:10:24,000 --> 00:10:26,000

每天都便宜給你更甜的價位

265

00:10:26,000 --> 00:10:28,000

如果說你是一次all in就買在你

266

00:10:28,000 --> 00:10:30,000

第一個講的那個很甜的價位

267

00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,000

那你會覺得你買的價位

268

00:10:32,000 --> 00:10:34,000

是很便宜

269

00:10:34,000 --> 00:10:36,000

所以你會覺得你買的價位

270

00:10:36,000 --> 00:10:38,000

就是你講的那個很甜的價位

271

00:10:38,000 --> 00:10:40,000

你後來撐不住的機會非常高

272

00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,000

你會懷疑自己

273

00:10:42,000 --> 00:10:44,000

所以如果你可以分兩次或三次進場

274

00:10:44,000 --> 00:10:46,000

那心態上會差非常多

275

00:10:46,000 --> 00:10:48,000

這要有試過才知道

276

00:10:48,000 --> 00:10:50,000

那以技術面的角度來講

277

00:10:50,000 --> 00:10:52,000

如果你買一個突破

278

00:10:52,000 --> 00:10:54,000

然後你買了之後它就回測

279

00:10:54,000 --> 00:10:56,000

講好聽就回測

280

00:10:56,000 --> 00:10:58,000

那有時候就是回跌嘛

281

00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,000

可能這個作手

282

00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,000

就不想拉了嘛

283

00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,000

有時候是這樣它拉起來

284

00:11:04,000 --> 00:11:06,000

然後接著拉我就是讓你們當沖隔日沖

285

00:11:06,000 --> 00:11:08,000

跟著賺嘛

286

00:11:08,000 --> 00:11:10,000

而且我拉的這個它需要花的錢

287

00:11:10,000 --> 00:11:12,000

就更多

288

00:11:12,000 --> 00:11:14,000

所以它情願拉的時候先放著給你回跌

289

00:11:14,000 --> 00:11:16,000

你要跑的先跑一跑再繼續拉

290

00:11:16,000 --> 00:11:18,000

那回跌的時候

291

00:11:18,000 --> 00:11:20,000

有時候回跌是直接把譬如說你突破的這一根

292

00:11:20,000 --> 00:11:22,000

整個跌掉

293

00:11:22,000 --> 00:11:24,000

那以技術面的操作原則

294

00:11:24,000 --> 00:11:26,000

跌掉你就要出場嘛

295

00:11:26,000 --> 00:11:28,000

最典型的原則是這樣

296

00:11:28,000 --> 00:11:30,000

所以如果你大進大出你一次買了三百多萬

297

00:11:30,000 --> 00:11:32,000

跌回去

298

00:11:32,000 --> 00:11:34,000

你是不是就嚇死了

299

00:11:34,000 --> 00:11:36,000

你可能就出光

300

00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:38,000

然後就賠錢

301

00:11:38,000 --> 00:11:40,000

最後發現一直在賠這種

302

00:11:40,000 --> 00:11:42,000

所以如果你分成三批的話

303

00:11:42,000 --> 00:11:44,000

就變成你可能突破買進

304

00:11:44,000 --> 00:11:46,000

那如果它有繼續上漲你看對了

305

00:11:46,000 --> 00:11:48,000

你就再買進

306

00:11:48,000 --> 00:11:50,000

可能最後走到某個平台

307

00:11:50,000 --> 00:11:52,000

盤整一下又再往上就繼續買進

308

00:11:52,000 --> 00:11:54,000

就剛好三次把它買完

309

00:11:54,000 --> 00:11:56,000

那或者說你買進它往下跌

310

00:11:56,000 --> 00:11:58,000

那可能跌到某個位置又往上攻

311

00:11:58,000 --> 00:12:00,000

你又再買進

312

00:12:00,000 --> 00:12:02,000

你只要有子彈可以打你就不會這麼慌

313

00:12:02,000 --> 00:12:04,000

這比起你一次大進大出

314

00:12:04,000 --> 00:12:06,000

這個心態上是差非常多的

315

00:12:06,000 --> 00:12:08,000

所以講到資金控管跟加減碼

316

00:12:08,000 --> 00:12:10,000

我認為這個做法是對的

317

00:12:10,000 --> 00:12:12,000

就是你還是要以股價來

318

00:12:12,000 --> 00:12:14,000

驗證自己的判斷

319

00:12:14,000 --> 00:12:16,000

因為

320

00:12:16,000 --> 00:12:18,000

不要騙自己講說投資

321

00:12:18,000 --> 00:12:20,000

是什麼看好某個公司

322

00:12:20,000 --> 00:12:22,000

支持他，沒有這種事

323

00:12:22,000 --> 00:12:24,000

大家來投資就是為了賺錢

324

00:12:24,000 --> 00:12:26,000

那賺錢的方式

325

00:12:26,000 --> 00:12:28,000

要嘛就是資本利得賺價差

326

00:12:28,000 --> 00:12:30,000

你要賺配息

327

00:12:30,000 --> 00:12:32,000

可是配息要記得要有填息喔

328

00:12:32,000 --> 00:12:34,000

沒有填息不算你賺的

329

00:12:34,000 --> 00:12:36,000

所以既然都是為了賺錢

330

00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,000

那我們就可以用股市的價格

331

00:12:38,000 --> 00:12:40,000

股票的價格來驗證

332

00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:42,000

自己的判斷是不是正確的

333

00:12:42,000 --> 00:12:44,000

因為大多是你不知道的事情

334

00:12:44,000 --> 00:12:46,000

以一般散戶來講你的消息

335

00:12:46,000 --> 00:12:48,000

來源是新聞跟研搜

336

00:12:48,000 --> 00:12:50,000

還有一個更慢的是財報

337

00:12:50,000 --> 00:12:52,000

那以比較有管道的散戶

338

00:12:52,000 --> 00:12:54,000

像我自己算是

339

00:12:54,000 --> 00:12:56,000

比較有管道的散戶

340

00:12:56,000 --> 00:12:58,000

那我至少我拿到很多券商的報告

341

00:12:58,000 --> 00:13:00,000

跟投行他們的評價

342

00:13:02,000 --> 00:13:04,000

在這邊也先提一下

343

00:13:04,000 --> 00:13:06,000

今天有人在我們的粉絲專頁講說

344

00:13:06,000 --> 00:13:08,000

其實投資就是完全是法人圈跟投資圈

345

00:13:08,000 --> 00:13:10,000

他們自己在玩自己在喊價

346

00:13:10,000 --> 00:13:12,000

沒有啦，其實法人圈跟投資圈

347

00:13:12,000 --> 00:13:14,000

他們吃土的機會

348

00:13:14,000 --> 00:13:16,000

就我自己看來也蠻高的

349

00:13:16,000 --> 00:13:18,000

譬如說他們看好某個

350

00:13:18,000 --> 00:13:20,000

二線的晶圓代工廠

351

00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,000

以及他的子集團說

352

00:13:22,000 --> 00:13:24,000

他們目前把他的Target Price TPE

353

00:13:24,000 --> 00:13:26,000

一直往上拉拉拉

354

00:13:26,000 --> 00:13:28,000

覺得他們的營收會很好

355

00:13:28,000 --> 00:13:30,000

一直在追蹤這些股票

356

00:13:30,000 --> 00:13:32,000

結果後來全部吃土

357

00:13:32,000 --> 00:13:34,000

這個是那時候看到

358

00:13:34,000 --> 00:13:36,000

好幾家同時有傳這樣的消息

359

00:13:36,000 --> 00:13:38,000

但是他們都倒了

360

00:13:38,000 --> 00:13:40,000

他們會傳給我的

361

00:13:40,000 --> 00:13:42,000

不是放給一般散戶的消息

362

00:13:42,000 --> 00:13:44,000

是他們是真的

363

00:13:44,000 --> 00:13:46,000

他很有把握

364

00:13:46,000 --> 00:13:48,000

他有朋友他才會分享說

365

00:13:48,000 --> 00:13:50,000

這個可以注意，我們大家都在講這個

366

00:13:50,000 --> 00:13:52,000

結果他吃土

367

00:13:52,000 --> 00:13:54,000

你最下面就是看新聞的散戶

368

00:13:54,000 --> 00:13:56,000

再來就是可能有一些管道的散戶

369

00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:58,000

再來還有網上的做手跟公司派裡面的人

370

00:13:58,000 --> 00:14:00,000

他們知道的更多

371

00:14:00,000 --> 00:14:02,000

所以很多時候

372

00:14:02,000 --> 00:14:04,000

你的判斷你覺得

373

00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:06,000

他會這樣走

374

00:14:06,000 --> 00:14:08,000

可是最後面事與願違

375

00:14:08,000 --> 00:14:10,000

那可能就是因為你不知道的原因

376

00:14:10,000 --> 00:14:12,000

讓他下跌而已

377

00:14:12,000 --> 00:14:14,000

所以說

378

00:14:14,000 --> 00:14:16,000

如果說你看對

379

00:14:16,000 --> 00:14:18,000

你才加碼

380

00:14:18,000 --> 00:14:20,000

你看錯的話

381

00:14:20,000 --> 00:14:22,000

你不知道原因是什麼

382

00:14:22,000 --> 00:14:24,000

但是你買了他就是一直跌

383

00:14:24,000 --> 00:14:26,000

那你其實就可以當作自己看錯

384

00:14:26,000 --> 00:14:28,000

除非你真的是非常有信心

385

00:14:28,000 --> 00:14:30,000

對自己非常有信心

386

00:14:30,000 --> 00:14:32,000

那你可以試看看

387

00:14:32,000 --> 00:14:34,000

你就試個幾次

388

00:14:34,000 --> 00:14:36,000

比如說你看錯了

389

00:14:36,000 --> 00:14:38,000

然後你就是繼續

390

00:14:38,000 --> 00:14:40,000

相信自己是看對的

391

00:14:40,000 --> 00:14:42,000

你就是認為股價目前冤枉了

392

00:14:42,000 --> 00:14:44,000

那你可以試看看

393

00:14:44,000 --> 00:14:46,000

那記得就不要融資不要借錢

394

00:14:46,000 --> 00:14:48,000

你就買了放著，你就驗證看看嘛，但應該啦，大多的時間

395

00:14:48,000 --> 00:14:50,000

那其實就代表其實是你看錯

396

00:14:50,000 --> 00:14:52,000

只是你當下可能

397

00:14:52,000 --> 00:14:54,000

消息還沒出來

398

00:14:54,000 --> 00:14:56,000

你還不知道

399

00:14:56,000 --> 00:14:58,000

那今天QA就先講這兩位

400

00:14:58,000 --> 00:15:00,000

就好了

401

00:15:00,000 --> 00:15:02,000

那我們就講一下這個武漢肺炎

402

00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:04,000

武漢肺炎在義大利的部分

403

00:15:04,000 --> 00:15:06,000

直接噴了50%的

404

00:15:06,000 --> 00:15:08,000

案例，一天內

405

00:15:08,000 --> 00:15:10,000

那其實前面就講過

406

00:15:10,000 --> 00:15:12,000

說

407

00:15:12,000 --> 00:15:14,000

因為我蠻常去義大利的

408

00:15:14,000 --> 00:15:16,000

所以對整個義大利

409

00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,000

或是歐盟國家的觀察

410

00:15:18,000 --> 00:15:20,000

他們的疫情會爆發其實不太意外

411

00:15:22,000 --> 00:15:24,000

目前是把美股下跌了

412

00:15:24,000 --> 00:15:26,000

至少大家是這樣覺得

413

00:15:26,000 --> 00:15:28,000

那把美股下跌大家就在講說

414

00:15:28,000 --> 00:15:30,000

川普不用選了

415

00:15:30,000 --> 00:15:32,000

那我在上一集節目

416

00:15:32,000 --> 00:15:34,000

講說其實美股直接參與投資的

417

00:15:34,000 --> 00:15:36,000

這個美國人是非常少的

418

00:15:36,000 --> 00:15:38,000

美股大跌的原因

419

00:15:38,000 --> 00:15:40,000

我認為是

420

00:15:40,000 --> 00:15:42,000

基金的散戶

421

00:15:42,000 --> 00:15:44,000

下到賣出

422

00:15:44,000 --> 00:15:46,000

迫使基金經理人必須去

423

00:15:46,000 --> 00:15:48,000

賣出現股

424

00:15:48,000 --> 00:15:50,000

要贖回嘛

425

00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,000

市場上把現股賣出

426

00:15:52,000 --> 00:15:54,000

所以造成這個

427

00:15:54,000 --> 00:15:56,000

一系列的崩跌

428

00:15:56,000 --> 00:15:58,000

那當然後續

429

00:15:58,000 --> 00:16:00,000

會不會有那種大型退休

430

00:16:00,000 --> 00:16:02,000

基金的操盤人

431

00:16:02,000 --> 00:16:04,000

動作比較慢他們不是即時的

432

00:16:04,000 --> 00:16:06,000

他們會不會再賣造成

433

00:16:06,000 --> 00:16:08,000

更下一波的下殺我們不知道

434

00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,000

但是我們還是回歸我們自己的

435

00:16:10,000 --> 00:16:12,000

操作原則就是目前很明顯的強勢空頭

436

00:16:12,000 --> 00:16:14,000

即便今天反彈看起來很爽

437

00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:16,000

可是還是不要

438

00:16:16,000 --> 00:16:18,000

貿然的

439

00:16:18,000 --> 00:16:20,000

在這個時候去買進

440

00:16:20,000 --> 00:16:22,000

這樣是比較好的策略

441

00:16:22,000 --> 00:16:24,000

那上次有提到

442

00:16:24,000 --> 00:16:26,000

美股直接參與的人很少

443

00:16:26,000 --> 00:16:28,000

所以我就找了一些數據來佐證

444

00:16:28,000 --> 00:16:30,000

自己的說法

445

00:16:30,000 --> 00:16:32,000

分享給大家

446

00:16:32,000 --> 00:16:34,000

在美國如果你是後面

447

00:16:34,000 --> 00:16:36,000

資產量是後面25%的人

448

00:16:36,000 --> 00:16:38,000

你持有的股票平均是

449

00:16:38,000 --> 00:16:40,000

1700美金

450

00:16:40,000 --> 00:16:42,000

25%到49.9%

451

00:16:42,000 --> 00:16:44,000

是3300美金

452

00:16:44,000 --> 00:16:46,000

所以都很少

453

00:16:46,000 --> 00:16:48,000

那75%到89.9%

454

00:16:48,000 --> 00:16:50,000

就是你是前25%

455

00:16:50,000 --> 00:16:52,000

有錢的人你持有的是

456

00:16:52,000 --> 00:16:54,000

28000美金

457

00:16:54,000 --> 00:16:56,000

但是到90%到100%

458

00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:58,000

最有錢的Top 10他持有的是

459

00:16:58,000 --> 00:17:00,000

200000美金

460

00:17:00,000 --> 00:17:02,000

所以貧富差距是

461

00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:04,000

蠻大的

462

00:17:04,000 --> 00:17:06,000

所以美國人他們持有的

463

00:17:06,000 --> 00:17:08,000

直接參與

464

00:17:08,000 --> 00:17:10,000

市場投資的人是少的

465

00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,000

那有錢的這部分的人

466

00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,000

以我自己的觀察

467

00:17:14,000 --> 00:17:16,000

他們應該不會是川普的支持者

468

00:17:16,000 --> 00:17:18,000

應該比較偏民主黨的支持者

469

00:17:18,000 --> 00:17:20,000

從上次選舉看來是這樣子

470

00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,000

川普的支持者

471

00:17:22,000 --> 00:17:24,000

比較草根一點

472

00:17:24,000 --> 00:17:26,000

那因為直接參與市場投資的人少

473

00:17:26,000 --> 00:17:28,000

所以對他們來講說

474

00:17:28,000 --> 00:17:30,000

股市失火就好像是

475

00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:32,000

隔壁

476

00:17:32,000 --> 00:17:34,000

隔壁家燒起來跟他們一點關係都沒有

477

00:17:34,000 --> 00:17:36,000

真的會影響到他們

478

00:17:36,000 --> 00:17:38,000

他們的就業以及消費

479

00:17:38,000 --> 00:17:40,000

一般美國人的就業和消費

480

00:17:42,000 --> 00:17:44,000

所以說

481

00:17:44,000 --> 00:17:46,000

如果美國也跟中國一樣

482

00:17:46,000 --> 00:17:48,000

假設疫情有爆發

483

00:17:48,000 --> 00:17:50,000

的狀況或是說為了

484

00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,000

預防這樣的可能

485

00:17:52,000 --> 00:17:54,000

必須要停工

486

00:17:54,000 --> 00:17:56,000

或者說因為供應鏈斷鏈

487

00:17:56,000 --> 00:17:58,000

沒有工作可以做

488

00:17:58,000 --> 00:18:00,000

目前可能會發生預防性裁員

489

00:18:00,000 --> 00:18:02,000

如果有這樣的狀況的話

490

00:18:02,000 --> 00:18:04,000

那就會很嚴重

491

00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,000

美國人大部分是沒有存款的

492

00:18:06,000 --> 00:18:08,000

所以說他今天

493

00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,000

如果沒有存款他要怎麼去付

494

00:18:10,000 --> 00:18:12,000

房貸、車貸

495

00:18:12,000 --> 00:18:14,000

那他們如果不消費的話

496

00:18:14,000 --> 00:18:16,000

就會非常嚴重

497

00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:18,000

要記得美國的內需市場很大

498

00:18:18,000 --> 00:18:20,000

那他也是推升

499

00:18:20,000 --> 00:18:22,000

本波股市上升

500

00:18:22,000 --> 00:18:24,000

的一個必要的條件之一

501

00:18:24,000 --> 00:18:26,000

所以如果連

502

00:18:26,000 --> 00:18:28,000

美國本土都出現這樣子的問題的話

503

00:18:28,000 --> 00:18:30,000

那可能就會非常嚴重

504

00:18:30,000 --> 00:18:32,000

他也可能會是下一波下跌的

505

00:18:32,000 --> 00:18:34,000

主要的原因之一

506

00:18:34,000 --> 00:18:36,000

所以我們必須持續的

507

00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:38,000

去追蹤這個因素

508

00:18:40,000 --> 00:18:42,000

中國部分是公佈了

509

00:18:42,000 --> 00:18:44,000

PMI指數

510

00:18:44,000 --> 00:18:46,000

PMI指數是

511

00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,000

採購淨利指數

512

00:18:48,000 --> 00:18:50,000

他是製造業的一個重要指標

513

00:18:50,000 --> 00:18:52,000

他公佈的這個數字呢

514

00:18:52,000 --> 00:18:54,000

比2008金融海嘯還要低

515

00:18:54,000 --> 00:18:56,000

所以目前中國的狀況

516

00:18:56,000 --> 00:18:58,000

是真的不好

517

00:18:58,000 --> 00:19:00,000

那當然很多人在這個數據公佈

518

00:19:00,000 --> 00:19:02,000

就講說因為中共一直以來都是

519

00:19:04,000 --> 00:19:06,000

不給人信任嘛

520

00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:08,000

所以他們認為這個數字應該

521

00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,000

再要更低

522

00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,000

那這就回到我們之前講的

523

00:19:12,000 --> 00:19:14,000

因為中國的資訊不透明

524

00:19:14,000 --> 00:19:16,000

以及大家對共產黨的不信任

525

00:19:16,000 --> 00:19:18,000

所以很多的陰謀論都會看起來

526

00:19:18,000 --> 00:19:20,000

很合理

527

00:19:20,000 --> 00:19:22,000

那當然如果你今天不是在從事

528

00:19:22,000 --> 00:19:24,000

投資跟操作的話

529

00:19:24,000 --> 00:19:26,000

你可以全力的看壞中國沒關係

530

00:19:26,000 --> 00:19:28,000

你可以很討厭他們沒關係

531

00:19:28,000 --> 00:19:30,000

這邊先補一下警語

532

00:19:30,000 --> 00:19:32,000

以防我自己被出征

533

00:19:32,000 --> 00:19:34,000

因為很多網友提醒過說

534

00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,000

現在很多中國你不是講壞的

535

00:19:36,000 --> 00:19:38,000

你就被出征了

536

00:19:38,000 --> 00:19:40,000

我自己是特戰傘兵退伍的

537

00:19:40,000 --> 00:19:42,000

愛台灣保家衛國衝第一耶耶耶

538

00:19:42,000 --> 00:19:44,000

所以警語下完了

539

00:19:44,000 --> 00:19:46,000

那回到剛剛講的

540

00:19:46,000 --> 00:19:48,000

為什麼不要看壞

541

00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,000

就是全力看壞的

542

00:19:50,000 --> 00:19:52,000

就拿2月3號的例子來講

543

00:19:52,000 --> 00:19:54,000

中國的新春開始

544

00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:56,000

大家都把那時候壞消息甚囂塵上

545

00:19:56,000 --> 00:19:58,000

而且他封關封了這麼多天

546

00:20:00,000 --> 00:20:02,000

所以很多人在開盤跑去放空

547

00:20:02,000 --> 00:20:04,000

那後來發生什麼事情，大家都知道了

548

00:20:04,000 --> 00:20:06,000

他的新春開盤就是最低點

549

00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:08,000

之後就一路往上軋

550

00:20:08,000 --> 00:20:10,000

那你當然可以嗆說

551

00:20:10,000 --> 00:20:12,000

是因為你國家隊在護盤

552

00:20:12,000 --> 00:20:14,000

或是因為你中國的韭菜散戶就是白痴

553

00:20:14,000 --> 00:20:16,000

在亂買可是又怎麼樣

554

00:20:16,000 --> 00:20:18,000

結果就是你被軋了

555

00:20:18,000 --> 00:20:20,000

所以很多時候你可能看對

556

00:20:20,000 --> 00:20:22,000

就是中共

557

00:20:22,000 --> 00:20:24,000

它真的是一個惡劣的政權

558

00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,000

必定會垮台

559

00:20:26,000 --> 00:20:28,000

好了，假設你看對

560

00:20:28,000 --> 00:20:30,000

但是如果你在不對的時間去放空它

561

00:20:30,000 --> 00:20:32,000

還是非常危險

562

00:20:32,000 --> 00:20:34,000

所以PMI數據開出來非常不好看

563

00:20:34,000 --> 00:20:36,000

但是大家又認為它更壞

564

00:20:36,000 --> 00:20:38,000

那如果說你今天看到這樣的結果

565

00:20:38,000 --> 00:20:40,000

你認為跟中共的經濟依存度

566

00:20:40,000 --> 00:20:42,000

很高的台灣

567

00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:44,000

禮拜一一定完蛋了

568

00:20:44,000 --> 00:20:46,000

為什麼因為美股已經大跌成這樣

569

00:20:46,000 --> 00:20:48,000

中共PMI要這樣

570

00:20:48,000 --> 00:20:50,000

那你跑去放空

571

00:20:50,000 --> 00:20:52,000

那今天放空的結果是什麼大家也看到了，台指期從200點嘎到要回平盤

572

00:20:52,000 --> 00:20:54,000

所以

573

00:20:54,000 --> 00:20:56,000

怎麼講

574

00:20:56,000 --> 00:20:58,000

市場就是很賤

575

00:20:58,000 --> 00:21:00,000

它就是

576

00:21:00,000 --> 00:21:02,000

已經預期會發生的事情

577

00:21:02,000 --> 00:21:04,000

它早就已經在

578

00:21:04,000 --> 00:21:06,000

市場的數據裡面

579

00:21:06,000 --> 00:21:08,000

結果已經出來了

580

00:21:08,000 --> 00:21:10,000

這就是市場效率說的一個說法

581

00:21:10,000 --> 00:21:12,000

也就是說你所有知道的訊息

582

00:21:12,000 --> 00:21:14,000

其實都已經反映在股價裡面

583

00:21:14,000 --> 00:21:16,000

我們大家怕的

584

00:21:16,000 --> 00:21:18,000

或是說

585

00:21:18,000 --> 00:21:20,000

會讓股價產生影響

586

00:21:20,000 --> 00:21:22,000

影響的是你還不知道的事情

587

00:21:22,000 --> 00:21:24,000

所以你已經知道的事情

588

00:21:24,000 --> 00:21:26,000

就沒有什麼影響

589

00:21:26,000 --> 00:21:28,000

有幾個網友留言滿有趣的

590

00:21:28,000 --> 00:21:30,000

我覺得很有道理

591

00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:32,000

如果今天大家都得過武漢肺炎

592

00:21:32,000 --> 00:21:34,000

全球確診就是爆掉了

593

00:21:34,000 --> 00:21:36,000

股市就要大噴了

594

00:21:36,000 --> 00:21:38,000

非常有可能

595

00:21:38,000 --> 00:21:40,000

不過當然這是不考慮

596

00:21:40,000 --> 00:21:42,000

停工或是說怎麼斷鏈

597

00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:44,000

如果今天假設這個利空是已經

598

00:21:44,000 --> 00:21:46,000

大家都知道

599

00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,000

就像是之前的貿易戰

600

00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,000

貿易戰你一開始

601

00:21:50,000 --> 00:21:52,000

跟著大家去轟轟鬧鬧在討論區裡面吵架

602

00:21:52,000 --> 00:21:54,000

然後看空中國

603

00:21:54,000 --> 00:21:56,000

看空美國

604

00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,000

去看空台股都OK

605

00:21:58,000 --> 00:22:00,000

你在事情剛發生的時候

606

00:22:00,000 --> 00:22:02,000

去講都OK可是

607

00:22:02,000 --> 00:22:04,000

貿易戰一打打了兩年

608

00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:06,000

快兩年

609

00:22:06,000 --> 00:22:08,000

在後期中後期

610

00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:10,000

基本上他後來跟劉鶴在那邊周旋

611

00:22:10,000 --> 00:22:12,000

貿易代表

612

00:22:12,000 --> 00:22:14,000

在那邊討價還價

613

00:22:14,000 --> 00:22:16,000

如果那時候你還在拿貿易戰

614

00:22:16,000 --> 00:22:18,000

當成是一個操作的依據

615

00:22:18,000 --> 00:22:20,000

那你真的太晚太晚了

616

00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:22,000

你可能會講說

617

00:22:22,000 --> 00:22:24,000

隨時還有突發的狀況

618

00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,000

可是你要有很優秀的判斷能力

619

00:22:26,000 --> 00:22:28,000

請問突發的狀況是什麼

620

00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,000

那時候貿易戰打到後期

621

00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:32,000

最常見的就是上漲的時候

622

00:22:32,000 --> 00:22:34,000

就說貿易戰有進展

623

00:22:34,000 --> 00:22:36,000

下跌的時候就說

624

00:22:36,000 --> 00:22:38,000

可能要重新談判

625

00:22:38,000 --> 00:22:40,000

新聞就這樣子

626

00:22:40,000 --> 00:22:42,000

耍無賴

627

00:22:42,000 --> 00:22:44,000

播一樣的東西播了

628

00:22:44,000 --> 00:22:46,000

一年左右

629

00:22:46,000 --> 00:22:48,000

我們過去的一年就是在看這樣子的新聞

630

00:22:48,000 --> 00:22:50,000

所以武漢肺炎

631

00:22:50,000 --> 00:22:52,000

對股市的影響

632

00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,000

最後我相信他也會鈍化

633

00:22:54,000 --> 00:22:56,000

你把歷史線圖拉出來看

634

00:22:56,000 --> 00:22:58,000

就會知道所有的利空

635

00:22:58,000 --> 00:23:00,000

他對股市的影響

636

00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:02,000

到最後都會趨近於零

637

00:23:04,000 --> 00:23:06,000

就是所有的利空

638

00:23:06,000 --> 00:23:08,000

他在反應完之後

639

00:23:08,000 --> 00:23:10,000

後續的東西如果都是在人們

640

00:23:10,000 --> 00:23:12,000

可預期的範圍之內

641

00:23:12,000 --> 00:23:14,000

那他就不再是一個利空

642

00:23:14,000 --> 00:23:16,000

所以貿易戰

643

00:23:16,000 --> 00:23:18,000

就好像武漢肺炎

644

00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:20,000

或是就好像之前的

645

00:23:20,000 --> 00:23:22,000

SARS,MERS,H1N1

646

00:23:22,000 --> 00:23:24,000

雖然H1N1台灣沒有什麼感覺

647

00:23:24,000 --> 00:23:26,000

但其實都一樣

648

00:23:26,000 --> 00:23:28,000

如果今天大家已經確定了

649

00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:30,000

譬如說他的

650

00:23:30,000 --> 00:23:32,000

確診的速率

651

00:23:32,000 --> 00:23:34,000

是多少

652

00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,000

他的死亡率是多少

653

00:23:36,000 --> 00:23:38,000

因為大家不相信中國嗎

654

00:23:38,000 --> 00:23:40,000

說他的死亡率是假的

655

00:23:40,000 --> 00:23:42,000

我們就看中國外面的

656

00:23:42,000 --> 00:23:44,000

這也確定了,疫苗的開發

657

00:23:44,000 --> 00:23:46,000

已經上軌道了

658

00:23:46,000 --> 00:23:48,000

預防的做法已經有了

659

00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:50,000

對應的方法已經有了

660

00:23:50,000 --> 00:23:52,000

那從此之後

661

00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,000

武漢肺炎他就不會是一個利空

662

00:23:54,000 --> 00:23:56,000

但是新聞一定還會繼續報

663

00:23:56,000 --> 00:23:58,000

可能還會繼續報個半年

664

00:23:58,000 --> 00:24:00,000

一年兩年

665

00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:02,000

但是對股市的影響就已經趨近為零了

666

00:24:02,000 --> 00:24:04,000

這時候就要該聚焦於

667

00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:06,000

接下來

668

00:24:06,000 --> 00:24:08,000

譬如說可能現在以

669

00:24:08,000 --> 00:24:10,000

比較淺的

670

00:24:10,000 --> 00:24:12,000

做法的人

671

00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:14,000

他們還在關注武漢肺炎

672

00:24:14,000 --> 00:24:16,000

本身疫情的狀況

673

00:24:16,000 --> 00:24:18,000

但是研究比較深的

674

00:24:18,000 --> 00:24:20,000

可能已經開始去關注

675

00:24:20,000 --> 00:24:22,000

譬如說

676

00:24:22,000 --> 00:24:24,000

停工

677

00:24:24,000 --> 00:24:26,000

停工跟復工率

678

00:24:26,000 --> 00:24:28,000

這個數字也是有一點

679

00:24:28,000 --> 00:24:30,000

問題的

680

00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:32,000

我是認為說復工率

681

00:24:32,000 --> 00:24:34,000

這個名詞沒有太大

682

00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:36,000

以致就是在玩文字遊戲

683

00:24:36,000 --> 00:24:38,000

你應該要關注的是產能

684

00:24:38,000 --> 00:24:40,000

到底開回來多少

685

00:24:40,000 --> 00:24:42,000

復工率

686

00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,000

我復工了可是我裡面沒人

687

00:24:44,000 --> 00:24:46,000

或是我產線只開了10%

688

00:24:46,000 --> 00:24:48,000

因為人沒有回來

689

00:24:48,000 --> 00:24:50,000

所以這是玩文字遊戲

690

00:24:50,000 --> 00:24:52,000

剛才講了就是說如果我們還在

691

00:24:52,000 --> 00:24:54,000

只專注在武漢肺炎

692

00:24:54,000 --> 00:24:56,000

的疫情上

693

00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:58,000

可能已經慢了

694

00:24:58,000 --> 00:25:00,000

我們現在要關注的除非他這個

695

00:25:00,000 --> 00:25:02,000

瘟疫的本身有突變

696

00:25:02,000 --> 00:25:04,000

那是另外一回事

697

00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,000

進展到

698

00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:08,000

因為這個肺炎

699

00:25:08,000 --> 00:25:10,000

所導致的經濟影響

700

00:25:10,000 --> 00:25:12,000

包含說會不會沒有料

701

00:25:12,000 --> 00:25:14,000

會不會斷鏈

702

00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:16,000

這個是我們要關注的以及接下來要關注的

703

00:25:16,000 --> 00:25:18,000

會不會讓美國

704

00:25:18,000 --> 00:25:20,000

有預防性裁員的動作

705

00:25:20,000 --> 00:25:22,000

我們要記得

706

00:25:22,000 --> 00:25:24,000

時時的要想在市場的前面

707

00:25:24,000 --> 00:25:26,000

那想在市場的前面

708

00:25:26,000 --> 00:25:28,000

其實是很孤獨

709

00:25:28,000 --> 00:25:30,000

很困難的事情

710

00:25:30,000 --> 00:25:32,000

所以這時候就很感謝我們有股癌

711

00:25:32,000 --> 00:25:34,000

就是至少大家可以在這邊討論

712

00:25:34,000 --> 00:25:36,000

因為你自己

713

00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,000

收集消息

714

00:25:38,000 --> 00:25:40,000

是可能沒有辦法那麼

715

00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:42,000

全面你看的東西

716

00:25:42,000 --> 00:25:44,000

大家一天的時間就這麼多

717

00:25:44,000 --> 00:25:46,000

你沒有辦法看那麼多的東西

718

00:25:46,000 --> 00:25:48,000

所以可以討論是好的我也很感謝

719

00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:50,000

大家都會留言討論

720

00:25:50,000 --> 00:25:52,000

各種說法都OK

721

00:25:52,000 --> 00:25:54,000

雖然有些留言跟

722

00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:56,000

比如在我們社團裡的PO文很明顯

723

00:25:56,000 --> 00:25:58,000

一看我覺得是陰謀論

724

00:25:58,000 --> 00:26:00,000

但是我還是尊重你的看法

725

00:26:00,000 --> 00:26:02,000

所以我們多方涉略

726

00:26:02,000 --> 00:26:04,000

最後做出自己的判斷

727

00:26:04,000 --> 00:26:06,000

這樣是最好的對自己沒有損失

728

00:26:08,000 --> 00:26:10,000

所以希望在這集之後

729

00:26:10,000 --> 00:26:12,000

我剛剛Q&A前面提到的

730

00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,000

一個老哥跟一個妹妹

731

00:26:14,000 --> 00:26:16,000

那個老哥的問題是還好

732

00:26:16,000 --> 00:26:18,000

那妹妹可能你不要介意

733

00:26:18,000 --> 00:26:20,000

我沒有講出你是誰

734

00:26:20,000 --> 00:26:22,000

但是你的案例我覺得非常值得分享給大家

735

00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:24,000

所以如果有

736

00:26:24,000 --> 00:26:26,000

更多問題或是說

737

00:26:26,000 --> 00:26:28,000

想要討論的其實可以直接在我們的

738

00:26:28,000 --> 00:26:30,000

留言討論

739

00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,000

我也不是真正一等一的專家

740

00:26:32,000 --> 00:26:34,000

我們的粉絲有很多是

741

00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:36,000

很強的專家

742

00:26:36,000 --> 00:26:38,000

所以或許你在留言討論你可以獲得更多的意見

743

00:26:38,000 --> 00:26:40,000

但是如果

744

00:26:40,000 --> 00:26:42,000

我覺得有不錯的案例我會拿出來

745

00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:44,000

跟大家討論看看大家有什麼想法

746

00:26:44,000 --> 00:26:46,000

那我們今天節目就到這邊

747

00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:48,000

如果有更多的意見

748

00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,000

或是一些建議

749

00:26:50,000 --> 00:26:52,000

歡迎私訊給我或是留言

750

00:26:52,000 --> 00:26:54,000

謝謝大家