新任美國總統 #川普 上任前就風風火火，甫上任更是多項政策翻轉，作為當今全球最有影響力的政治人物，政策方向牽動所有國家和企業的發展，以下摘要 #群益金融集團 對川普就職演說的分析，並且延伸分享推測對廣告行銷領域的影響：
▌10點摘要：
- 關稅政策：川普計劃對進口產品課徵高關稅，針對墨西哥和加拿大為 25%，中國為 10%，以強化國內生產並吸引資金回流美國。
- 能源政策：宣布國家能源緊急狀態，擴大石油生產並輸出全球，同時終止綠色新政和電動車強制規定，目標降低能源成本。
- 移民政策：恢復嚴格邊界控制，停止非法入境，並重新執行「留在墨西哥」政策，強調遣返外國罪犯。
- 通膨粘著性：關稅和能源政策將提升進口成本和物價水平，減少聯準會降息的空間。
- 美國貿易戰影響：墨西哥和加拿大逐漸成為美國主要進口國，取代中國部分市場份額。
- 資通產品產業：台灣和越南成為美國資訊科技產品的重要供應商，部分台灣產能移回國內生產。
- 勞動市場：移民政策收緊可能擴大勞動市場供需缺口，推升薪資，進一步助長通膨。
- 美元強勢持續：受關稅和利率政策影響，美元將在 2025 年保持強勢。
- 全球供應鏈調整：國際車廠和機械設備廠逐漸轉移至墨西哥和加拿大，以減少貿易戰影響。
- 聯準會政策預測：預期 2025 年美國利率將小幅下降，但仍維持較高水準，以應對通膨壓力。
▌對廣告行銷領域影響的 3 點及因應建議：
- 消費者行為變化：
影響：高關稅導致商品價格上升，消費者可能優先選擇價格較低的本土品牌或替代品。
因應：品牌需強調「本地製造」和「高性價比」的賣點，並利用情感訴求增強品牌黏性。 - 能源政策影響產品形象：
影響：取消綠色政策可能讓重視環保的消費者對企業態度更嚴苛。
因應：品牌可推出「綠色友好」或可持續產品，滿足消費者對環保的期待，並利用數據展示環保成就。 - 國際市場策略調整：
影響：全球供應鏈重新分佈，行銷策略需考慮新供應地區及相關政策。
因應：擴展本土化行銷，針對新市場量身訂製行銷內容，如使用當地語言及文化符號進行推廣。
完整檔案內容：https://reurl.cc/nqALke
As the most influential political figure in the world today, Trump's policy direction affects the development of all countries and enterprises. The following is a summary of #THE CAPITAL GROUP‘s analysis of Trump's inaugural speech and an extended sharing of speculations on the impact on the field of advertising and marketing:
▌10-Point Summary:
- Tariff Policies: Trump plans to impose high tariffs on imported goods—25% on products from Mexico and Canada, and 10% on Chinese imports—to bolster domestic production and encourage capital repatriation to the U.S.
- Energy Policies: Declaring a national energy emergency, Trump aims to expand oil production for global export, end the Green New Deal, and eliminate mandatory electric vehicle regulations to reduce energy costs.
- Immigration Policies: Reinforcing strict border control, Trump intends to halt illegal immigration, reinstate the "Remain in Mexico" policy, and emphasize deportation of foreign criminals.
- Sticky Inflation: Tariff and energy policies are expected to raise import costs and overall prices, reducing the Federal Reserve’s room to lower interest rates.
- Impact of the Trade War: Mexico and Canada are gradually becoming the U.S.’s primary import partners, replacing part of China’s market share.
- ICT Industry Dynamics: Taiwan and Vietnam are emerging as major suppliers of information and communication technology products to the U.S., with some Taiwanese manufacturing shifting back to domestic production.
- Labor Market Effects: Tighter immigration policies may exacerbate labor supply-demand gaps, driving up wages and further fueling inflation.
- Continued Strength of the U.S. Dollar: Driven by tariff and interest rate policies, the U.S. dollar is expected to remain strong through 2025.
- Global Supply Chain Adjustments: International car and machinery manufacturers are increasingly relocating to Mexico and Canada to mitigate the effects of trade tensions.
- Federal Reserve Policy Outlook: U.S. interest rates are projected to slightly decrease by 2025 but remain relatively high to counter inflationary pressures.
▌3 Impacts on the Advertising & Marketing Industry and Recommendations:
- Shifts in Consumer Behavior
Impact: Higher tariffs may drive up product prices, prompting consumers to prioritize more affordable local brands or substitutes.
Recommendation: Brands should emphasize the advantages of being “locally made” and “high value for money,” while leveraging emotional appeals to build brand loyalty. - Energy Policies and Product Perception
Impact: The removal of green policies may lead environmentally conscious consumers to hold companies to higher sustainability standards.
Recommendation: Companies can introduce “eco-friendly” or sustainable products, align with consumer expectations, and use data-driven campaigns to highlight environmental achievements. - Adjustments in International Marketing Strategies
Impact: The reorganization of global supply chains necessitates marketing strategies tailored to new supply regions and policy frameworks.
Recommendation: Expand localized marketing efforts by customizing content for new markets, incorporating local languages, and leveraging cultural nuances for stronger engagement.
