中國的債務陷阱外交
新聞主標:
China grants billions in bailouts as Belt and Road Initiative falters
新聞副標:
New study attempts to capture total rescue loans from world’s biggest bilateral creditor
新聞連結:
【胖犬導讀】
中國長期藉由「一帶一路」(Belt and Road Initiative, BRI)對其他發展中國家實施債務陷阱外交(debt-trap diplomacy),金融時報這篇報導,清楚說明了中國不願在既有的國際多邊架構之下,與其他國家共同協調債務重整方案。
但在中國的雙邊主義框架之下所進行的紓困協助,對陷入財務危機的發展中國家來說,是否造成更大的傷害?
【關鍵字】
- debt-trap diplomacy 債務陷阱外交
- creditor 債權國(俗稱債主,借別人錢的人)
- debtor 債務國(向別人借錢的人
- bailout 紓困
- Belt and Road Initiative, BRI 一帶一路
- falter 踉蹌,跌倒
- debt restructuring 債務重整
- appreciation 升值
- last resort 最後訴諸方案
- opaque 不透明的
- multilateral 多邊的
- cause célèbre 知名案例
- White elephants 白象(意指造價昂貴但大而無用的工程)
【關鍵字段落分析】
China has significantly expanded its bailout lending as its Belt and Road Initiative blows up following a series of debt write-offs, scandal-ridden projects and allegations of corruption.
在新聞英文中,很常見的倒金字塔型寫法是「標題」(headline)加上「導言」(lead)加上「本體」(body)。
新聞英文最吸引胖犬的地方,其實是「導言」的部分。優秀的記者在撰寫英文新聞時,常常都能寫出具有特色且風格洗鍊的導言。每次讀到好的導言,我總會多念幾遍,期盼自己也能寫出那麼好的導言。
金融時報這篇報導的導言,我個人就十分欣賞,因為它不僅言簡意賅,且用字精準,同時富含大量的資訊量。
主要子句是China has significantly expanded its bailout lending,先點出「大舉增加紓困借貸」,至於為什麼這樣做,後面馬上解釋「一帶一路爆了」(Belt and Road Initiative blows up)。
但句子還沒結束,後面又接著補充一連串的三件事,來說明一帶一路的狀況,分別是debt write-offs(債務抵銷)、scandal-ridden projects(醜聞不斷的專案)及allegations of corruption(貪污腐敗傳言)。
看似落落長的句子,一一拆解後,便會發現這是結構十分工整的句子,非常漂亮。
A study published on Tuesday shows China granted $104bn worth of rescue loans to developing countries between 2019 and the end of 2021. The figure for these years is almost as large as the country’s bailout lending over the previous two decades.
在「導言」之後,進入本篇的「本體」。好的本體,能夠清楚銜接導言的脈絡,並且加上一段「沒有重要到需要放在導言」但「能夠清楚補充導言敘述」的文字。
本文的本體就恰到好處。
A study published on Tuesday shows China granted $104bn worth of rescue loans to developing countries between 2019 and the end of 2021.週二所公布的研究顯示,中國在2019年至2021年底總共發出1040億美元的紓困貸款給發展中國家。
The figure for these years is almost as large as the country’s bailout lending over the previous two decades. 這個數字幾乎等於過去二十年的紓困總額。
這一段以數據的形式,非常清楚佐證了導言的第一句話:China has significantly expanded its bailout lending。為什麼用significant(可觀的)這個字?因為總共有1040億美元啊!
The study by researchers at AidData, World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School and Kiel Institute for the World Economy is the first known attempt to capture total Chinese rescue lending on a global basis.
但數據不能口說無憑啊,究竟這數字怎麼來的?本體的下一段馬上告訴你,原來是來自AidData, World Bank, Harvard Kennedy School and Kiel Institute for the World Economy這四大機構所做的研究,而且這個研究是第一個以全球為基礎所做的報告。換言之,這四大機構針對中國在全球各地的一帶一路建設的現況做了完整的調查。
China’s emergence as a highly influential “lender of last resort” presents critical challenges for western-led institutions such as the IMF, which have sought to safeguard global financial stability since the end of the second world war.
從這段開始,新的訊息進來了:它在針對中國的這個行為做出價值判斷,而且顯然是負面的。
翻譯:中國變成具有高度影響力的最後訴諸手段借貸者,對於諸如國際貨幣基金之類的西方世界主導的制度,造成重大的挑戰,而這個(西方世界主導的)制度自從二次戰後便致力捍衛全球金融穩定。
為什麼金融時報要這樣說?難道中國借錢給發展中國家,不好嗎?
解釋在下一段。
“The global financial architecture is becoming less coherent, less institutionalised and less transparent,” said Brad Parks, executive director of AidData at William & Mary in the US. “Beijing has created a new global system for cross-border rescue lending, but it has done so in an opaque and uncoordinated way.”
這段引用了一位名叫Brad Parks的專家所說:全球金融架構因此變得較不一致、較不制度化也較不透明。北京創造了一個跨國援助借貸的新全球體系,但方式卻模糊不清且不協調。
Rising global interest rates and the strong appreciation of the dollar have raised concerns about the ability of developing countries to repay their creditors. Several sovereigns have run into distress, with a lack of co-ordination among creditors blamed for prolonging some crises.
上升的全球利率及美元的強勢升值,讓發展中國家憂慮是否能還清債務。部分國家陷入混亂,債務國彼此之間卻不協調進一步造成危機延長。
Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe called on China and other creditors last week to quickly reach a compromise on debt restructuring after the IMF approved a $3bn four-year lending programme for his nation.
就在國際貨幣基金核准了30億美元四年期借貸方案後,斯里蘭卡總統呼籲中國及其他債權國儘速達成債務重整妥協方案。
China has declined to participate in multilateral debt resolution programmes even though it is a member of the IMF. Ghana, Pakistan and other troubled debtors that owe large amounts to China are closely watching Sri Lanka’s example.
中國卻拒絕參與多邊的債務解決計畫,即便中國是國際貨幣基金的會員國。迦納、巴基斯坦及其他陷入困境且積欠中國大筆金額的債務國正觀察斯里蘭卡個案的後續發展。
multilateral在這邊是關鍵字。字面上是多邊的意思,但研究過國際關係的人就能嗅到,多邊(multilateral)或雙邊(bilateral)一直是國際政治的核心概念。
例如,現實主義強調雙邊關係,新自由主義則強調多邊建制。我們在此不深入討論國際關係,但上述這幾段其實就是為了帶出一個訊息:「中國雖然是多邊建制(IMF)的成員,但他不想在多邊的框架下來玩」。
“[China’s] strictly bilateral approach has made it more difficult to co-ordinate the activities of all major emergency lenders,” said Parks.
中國嚴格的雙邊路徑導致無法與其他主要的緊急借貸國進行協調。
However, there are big differences between IMF programmes and Chinese bailouts. One is that Chinese money is not cheap. “A typical rescue loan from the IMF carries a 2 per cent interest rate,” said the study. “The average interest rate attached to a Chinese rescue loan is 5 per cent.”
那究竟IMG代表的多邊與中國的雙邊,兩者有何差異呢?
當然有。第一,中國借出去的錢比較貴,足足要五趴的利息。相較之下,IMF只要兩趴利息。
Beijing also does not offer bailouts to all Belt and Road borrowers in distress. Big recipients of BRI financing, which represent a significant balance sheet risk for Chinese banks, are more likely to receive emergency aid.
中國紓困的對象也有分,不是每個國家都會借,通常是有參與中國一帶一路方案的國家,比較有機會從中國拿到紓困貸款。
“Beijing is ultimately trying to rescue its own banks. That’s why it has gotten into the risky business of international bailout lending,” said Carmen Reinhart, a Harvard Kennedy School professor and former chief economist at the World Bank Group.
這道理很簡單。中國的一帶一路通常是中資銀行參與。為了保護中國自己的銀行因為一帶一路方案賠錢,中國政府選擇優先紓困這些國家。
Several projects became cause célèbre for how not to undertake development lending. An infamous $1bn “road to nowhere” in Montenegro remains unfinished and dogged by corruption allegations, construction delays and environmental issues.
本篇報導最後談的是一帶一路的工程品質,文中以蒙特內哥羅境內造價高達十億美元但哪裡也去不了的路(road to nowhere)為例,說明工程品質的低落,原因包括貪污腐敗、工程延宕及環境議題。
“White elephants” such as Sri Lanka’s Hambantota port and Lotus Tower are seen as symptoms of the country’s debt crisis, while more than 7,000 cracks were found in an Ecuadorean dam built by Chinese contractors near an active volcano.
近來中國的一帶一路常常被以White elephants(白象工程)來形容,可說是惡名昭彰,這裡另外舉例包括斯里蘭卡的Hambantota港口及Lotus Tower(蓮花塔),還有超過七千條裂縫的厄瓜多水壩。
【胖犬短評】
China’s Belt and Road Initiative has been infamous for many developing countries. The shabby quality of public constructions is often appalling, and the governments of debtors are sometimes bewildered with their Chinese counterpart’s lack of transparency. To make it worse, some countries have found themselves troubled with China’s debt-trap diplomacy.
Although China possesses a membership of most international organizations, it is a reluctant player in the multilateral architecture. China has granted many rescue loans through its bilateral approach, which irritates the IMF system led by the west.
White elephants have been heavily criticized in many BRI’s projects. Whether Xi Jinping can still sell the rhetoric to developing countries remains to be seen.
在某些文章中,我會撰寫一篇英文短評,並置於文章底部。
寫作的過程,其實是自我整理思緒及文章脈絡的好方式。我也鼓勵大家,在留言區寫下自己的想法,中文英文皆可,我會盡量親自一一回覆。