【橋水觀點】美聯儲持續加息緊縮何去何從:通脹,惡性通縮以及經濟衰退

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High inflation and an extremely tight labor market leave the Fed with little choice but to tighten until the economy and markets weaken, setting up as bad an environment for financial assets as we have seen.
Wednesday’s FOMC meeting — in which the Fed raised rates another 75bps, increased its forecast for peak interest rates to 4.6%, and signaled that it would tighten as much as it takes to bring down inflation — highlights that this cycle will be managed more aggressively than what investors are used to because inflation is already at extreme levels. From the mid-1980s until recently, the Fed tightened proactively and inflation stayed relatively low and stable. This allowed the Fed the luxury of time, so it could take a cautious approach to tightening and see how conditions played out. With core inflation still north of 6%, unemployment at 3.7%, and a record number of unfilled jobs, the Fed is now playing catch-up, and the policy risk facing it is asymmetric — it needs to tighten a lot and can’t afford to underdeliver or back down too early. This means that, at least in the near term, the Fed is unlikely to welcome any easing of financial conditions, either from lower interest rates or higher equity prices, that reduces downward pressure on the real economy and prices. Chair Powell made it clear that the Fed will not make the mistake of ending the tightening prematurely — and acknowledged that this will not be a painless process.
While we think the tightening so far (and what the Fed is priced to deliver in the near future) is getting closer to what it will take to slow the economy and rein in inflation, the thing we feel most confident about is this: today is about as bad an environment for financial assets as we have seen. We don’t see stocks as pricing in the economic pain that we and Chair Powell think it will take to bring inflation down. Until this happens or the economy slows materially — which the Fed likely won’t be sure of for some time — we don’t see room for rates to fall.
高通脹和極度緊張的勞動力市場讓美聯儲別無選擇,只能在經濟和市場疲軟之前收緊政策,這為金融資產創造了我們所看到的糟糕的環境。
美聯儲在會議上再次加息 75 個基點,將利率峰值預測上調至 4.6%,並暗示將盡可能收緊以降低通脹 — — 強調本輪週期的管理將比投資者已經習慣了,因為通脹已經處於極端水平。
從 1980 年代中期到最近,美聯儲主動收緊貨幣政策,通脹保持在較低水平和穩定狀態。這讓美聯儲有足夠的時間,所以它可以採取謹慎的態度來收緊政策,看看情況如何發展。由於核心通脹率仍在 6% 以上,失業率保持在 3.7%,空缺職位數量創歷史新高,美聯儲現在正在迎頭趕上,面臨的政策風險是不對稱的 — — 它需要大量收緊,但不能負擔得起交付不足或過早退縮。這意味著,至少在短期內,美聯儲不太可能歡迎任何金融狀況的放鬆,無論是降低利率還是提高股價,從而減輕實體經濟和價格的下行壓力。鮑威爾主席明確表示,美聯儲不會犯過早結束緊縮政策的錯誤 — — 並承認這不會是一個輕鬆的過程。
雖然我們認為到目前為止的緊縮政策(以及美聯儲在不久的將來實施的定價)越來越接近減緩經濟和控制通脹所需採取的措施,但我們最有信心的是:今天是與我們所見的金融資產環境一樣糟糕。我們認為股票不會反映我們和鮑威爾主席認為需要降低通脹的經濟痛苦。在這種情況發生或經濟大幅放緩(美聯儲可能在一段時間內無法確定)之前,我們認為利率沒有下降空間。
60/40 = approximately 60% stocks, 40% bonds
60/40 = 大約 60% 股票,40% 債券
There Is a Lot of Tightening Priced In and the Liquidity Hole Is Getting Bigger, but the Fed Is Likely to Stay the Course Until It Gets What It Wants
So far this year, the Fed has rapidly raised short rates from zero and transitioned aggressively from QE to QT. This big swing in policy will eventually slow down the real economy via tightening financial conditions, but with inflation so far away from target and with the lessons of the 1970s on the Fed’s mind, it will need to see convincing evidence that it is nearing its goals before it turns toward easing. We think this will only come via clear and repeated signs of relief on inflation or through a big sell-off in financial assets that would unambiguously signal the kind of weakening in the real economy that will bring down inflation. Neither seems forthcoming unless conditions, either real or financial, get worse.
有很多緊縮的價格,流動性漏洞越來越大,但美聯儲可能會堅持到底,直到它得到它想要的東西
今年到目前為止,美聯儲已迅速從零利率上調短期利率,並積極從量化寬鬆過渡到量化寬鬆。政策的大幅波動最終將通過收緊金融條件使實體經濟放緩,但鑑於通脹距離目標如此之遠,以及美聯儲考慮到 1970 年代的教訓,它需要看到令人信服的證據表明它正在接近目標 在轉向寬鬆之前。我們認為,這只會通過明確且反復出現的通脹緩解跡像或通過金融資產的大規模拋售來實現,這將明確表明實體經濟的疲軟將降低通脹。除非實際或財務狀況變得更糟,否則兩者似乎都不會出現。
Confidence That Imbalances in the Labor Market Are Easing and Inflation Is Falling Enough Will Take Time
In previous research, we’ve written about how the labor market is still much too tight and inflationary pressures much too broad for the Fed to pivot anytime soon. On Wednesday, Chair Powell reiterated that the Fed will need to “achieve a period of growth below trend and also some softening of labor market conditions” to get to its goals, and we think this “period” of weak growth could be longer and the “softening” more painful than markets seem to. There is a material supply/demand imbalance in the labor market, which is driving wage growth and putting inflationary pressures on the economy. These pressures can only be resolved by weaker growth, but it’s impossible to say precisely how much worse growth needs to get. We think this uncertainty will make the Fed reluctant to pivot until inflation is clearly falling, an outcome that will only become evident with a lag.
對勞動力市場失衡正在緩解和通脹下降足夠的信心需要時間
在之前的研究中,我們已經寫到勞動力市場仍然過於緊張,通脹壓力過於廣泛,以至於美聯儲無法在短期內做出調整。
鮑威爾主席重申,美聯儲將需要”實現一段低於趨勢的增長期,以及勞動力市場狀況的一些軟化”以實現其目標,我們認為這個增長疲軟的”期”可能會更長,並且”軟化”比市場看起來更痛苦。勞動力市場存在物質供需失衡,這正在推動工資增長並給經濟帶來通脹壓力。這些壓力只能通過較弱的增長來解決,但無法準確說明增長需要惡化到何種程度。我們認為這種不確定性將使美聯儲不願在通脹明顯下降之前轉向,這一結果只會在一段時間後變得明顯。
Financial Markets Remain Too Optimistic About the Growth Outlook — Which Is Not Helping the Fed
With conditions in the real economy unlikely to support a Fed pivot anytime soon, the only other shoe that could drop would be a big tightening in financial conditions — one clearly large enough to trigger the Fed’s desired growth slowdown. While markets, on Fed guidance, have priced in the Fed’s rate tightening ahead of actual hikes, they have yet to price in any real growth slowdown and continue to see a pivot to persistently tighter policy as unlikely. In other words, the change in rates has done most of the tightening so far, with no help from changing expectations for growth.
金融市場對增長前景仍然過於樂觀 — — 這無助於美聯儲接下來的行動
由於實體經濟狀況不太可能支持美聯儲在短期內轉向,唯一可能將落地的另一隻靴子將是金融環境的大幅收緊 — — 這顯然足以引髮美聯儲預期的增長放緩。儘管市場在美聯儲的指導下,在實際加息之前已經消化了美聯儲的收緊利率,但他們尚未消化任何實際增長放緩,並且繼續認為轉向持續收緊政策的可能性不大。換句話說,到目前為止,利率的變化已經完成了大部分的緊縮政策,而對增長預期的改變並沒有幫助。
And while the sell-off in equities, bonds, and spreads will eventually flow through to the real economy, with conditions so far from target, we think the Fed will need to see more before it becomes convinced that financial conditions have tightened enough to return inflation to 2%. This year’s sell-off in financial assets is large relative to what markets have experienced over the past decade, but much larger ones have typically been required to cause the Fed to pivot when inflation is this far above target.
雖然股票、債券和利差的拋售最終將傳導至實體經濟,但目前的情況遠未達到目標,但我們認為美聯儲需要看到更多,才能確信金融環境已經收緊到足以回歸 通脹率達到 2%。與過去十年市場經歷的情況相比,今年金融資產的拋售幅度很大,但當通脹遠高於目標時,通常需要更大的拋售來促使美聯儲調整政策。
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