沙特的「棄台論」

【Remark】After suggesting the Finlandization of Taiwan, Robert G. Sutter, a policy researcher of the National Bureau of Asian Research, which is supported by CIA, claimed that Taiwan would be eventually merged by China.  Seeing MYJ’s efforts in the last three years, he judged further that it is an irreversible trend, with or without MYJ.  That means DPP’s Tsai Ying-wen has to follow the trend if she becomes the President in 2012.
Robert Sutter plays the role of US “Red Team,” which offers options to the present US policies. 
There are many different opinions and options.  However, we should prepare for one of the worst.  (revised at 2000)

那位CIA智庫學者Robert G. Sutter，繼前次提出台灣要芬蘭化的主張後，又提出所謂的棄台論。全文下載：http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/free/A11_Taiwan.pdf
Sutter看起來屬於美國政策學者中的紅隊，扮演著提供紅的意見的功能。以下是其論文摘要。

【相關閱讀】
馬政府降低了台灣的行動自由●自由時報社論（2011.05.31）

Taiwan’s Future: Narrowing Straits●Robert G. Sutter / NBR (May 2011)

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Indigenous weakness and eroded U.S. support give Taiwan little choice other than continued accommodation of overwhelming and ever-increasing Chinese leverage.

Main Argument

Cross-strait relations continue to improve because this trend is perceived as being in the interests of the three main actors: the governments of China, Taiwan, and the U.S. The Taiwan presidential election of 2012 is unlikely to seriously alter recent improvements. Many in Taiwan and abroad favor what they erroneously see as a status quo in which the Taiwan administration enjoys independence of action. However, China’s economic, military, and diplomatic leverage over Taiwan increasingly constrains Taipei to follow a path leading to accommodation of and eventual reunification with China. Taiwan’s weak self-strengthening and a marked decline in U.S. support for the island’s freedom of action further bind it to the recent trajectory of accommodating China.

Policy Implications

• Policy elites in Taiwan and the U.S. privately may be aware of the implications of Chinese leverage in determining Taiwan’s future and perhaps may favor Taiwan’s eventual reunification with China. However, other stakeholders in the media, among politicians and interest groups, and in the general public are not. Without a clearer view of existing realities, these groups may lash out in ultimately futile but highly disruptive ways as their preferred status quo wanes.
• A similar backlash can be anticipated from like-minded stakeholders within the Taiwan and U.S. administrations who cling to unrealistic expectations that Taiwan can preserve freedom of action amid the increasingly constraining circumstances caused by a rising China, a weakened Taiwan, and declining U.S. support.
• U.S. allies and friends in Asia, notably Japan, will require extraordinary reassurance that U.S. government encouragement of conditions leading to the resolution of Taiwan’s future and reunification with China does not forecast a power-shift in the region. Perceptions of such a shift would require dramatic and probably disruptive policy changes by regional states, ranging from bandwagoning with China to indigenous rearmament to become less reliant on declining U.S. power and resolve.

http://www.nbr.org/publications/element.aspx?id=497

全文下載：http://www.nbr.org/publications/analysis/pdf/free/A11_Taiwan.pdf