AI new star, ATGL, ignites investor frenzy!

Introduction:

In the wave of rapid development of generative AI technology, DeepSeek is reshaping the global AI industry landscape with its breakthrough progress in open source large models. In this technological revolution, Alpha Technology Group Limited (NASDAQ: ATGL) is quietly building a business model with its unique LLM application ecosystem. Although this Hong Kong AI first stock listed on NASDAQ has not established official cooperation with DeepSeek, it has a great opportunity to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement through technology integration, and its stock price explosion potential has triggered endless imagination in the capital market.

A. The disruptor is here: ATGL's AI-enabled revolution

As an AI solution architect with large language models (LLM) as the core engine, ATGL focuses on providing three value breakthroughs for government and enterprise customers:

- Intelligent process reconstruction: Deeply coupling the self-developed AI optical character recognition (AI-OCR) system with LLM, achieving an accuracy rate of over 98% in data extraction from printed documents, completely ending the era of manual entry

- ESG (Environmental, social, and governance) strategy implementation: Through automated processes, customers can reduce carbon emissions by more than 20% each year, labor costs drop by 35%, and the error rate is compressed to less than 0.5%

- Decision-making brain upgrade: embedding predictive analysis modules in CRM/ERP systems, using multimodal AI to optimize supply chains and improve customer portrait accuracy by 300%

Currently, ATGL has involved 12 core areas such as consulting, finance, and logistics. It has also successfully won AI service contracts for three of the four major families in Hong Kong, and become their AI transformation partner. With the benchmark case of top business groups, ATGL is accelerating its strategic cooperation with the Hong Kong government in smart city projects, with high technical barriers and strong stickiness between government and enterprises.

B. DeepSeek technology pros: ATGL's cost butcher and valuation leverage

Although it has not reached a commercial cooperation with DeepSeek, ATGL is reaping the technology advantage in its unique ways.

1. Cost reduction and efficiency improvement at the model level

ATGL is likely to reduce the LLM training cost by 40% by integrating open source models such as DeepSeek-R1, while increasing the response speed of AI-OCR solutions to 0.3 seconds per page. This "technology-taking" strategy makes its gross profit margin 15-20% points higher in the same market field.

2. Capital market multiplier effect

The capital frenzy caused by DeepSeek 100 Billion Parameter Model directly pushed up the valuation level of the AI application layer. Compared with American AI stocks such as C3.ai and Upstart, ATGL current PS is only 8.3 times, which means there is a significant value gap.

3. Ecological niche advantage

In government affairs, ATGL is already an AI technology supplier for different Hong Kong government departments and agencies such as the Airport Authority and the Transport Department. If its intelligent government platforms can access 75% of Hong Kong's public service systems, it will form a natural security protection model. Combined with the deep binding with Hong Kong's top consortium, ATGL has built a full-chain capability of data-model-deployment, which is an application layer advantage that is difficult for underlying model vendors such as DeepSeek to shake.

 C. Value reassessment: three engines drive the high speed flywheel

1. The rigid demand for digitalization of government and enterprises has exploded

Hong Kong's "Smart City Blueprint 3.0" clearly states that it will invest HK$20 billion in the next three years. ATGL has a great chance of becoming its AI supplier. If it wins the bid for core projects such as smart transportation and e-government, its ongoing orders can extend until at least 2030.

2. Cross-border business

Relying on the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area strategy, the company is initially replicating AI-OCR solutions to the mainland market. With the experience of serving the Hong Kong government and top consortiums as a springboard, if the first project runs smoothly and saves tens of millions of dollars per year in data processing costs for an international logistics giant, the Greater Bay Area layout will be initially formed.

3. Technology generational leap

ATGL’s Neural Sense AI platform under development will realize the integration of LLM + knowledge graph + digital twin three engines. It is expected to be released in Q4 2024, which will support customers to shorten the development cycle of customized AI models from 3 months to 72 hours.

1.Valuation reconstruction: Turbine engines drive the golden track

1. Benchmark valuation method

Referring to AI application layer companies, Palantir (PS 18.6 times) and UiPath (PS 11.2 times), ATGL is given a 12 times dynamic price-to-sales ratio. Based on the estimated revenue of US$42 million in 2025, the target market value is US$504 million, corresponding to a share price of US$30.6 (total share capital of 16.46 million).

2. Discounted Cash Flow Model

Assuming that the revenue CAGR from 2025 to 2028 reaches 38%, the operating cash flow profit margin increases to 25%, the WACC is 11.5%, and the perpetual growth rate is 3%, the intrinsic value per share is calculated to be US$27.8, which has a 157% upside compared to the current price.

3. Catalyst analysis

- Technical demonstration of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao AI Summit in September 2024

- AI business revenue accounted for more than 60% in the Q3 financial report

- Scaled replication of cooperation cases with the Hong Kong government and top consortiums

- There is a great opportunity to sign a contract with the smart city project of Middle East sovereign fund  in the future

Investment advice:

The short-term technical shows a cup-and-handle breakout, and the fundamentals are on the eve of the performance turning point. It is recommended to layout at a low price. The risk lies in the adaptation cost that may be brought about by the iteration of large-scale model technology, but ATGL's technology integration capabilities have proven its evolutionary flexibility. In the new stage where AI application layer investment shifts from "story hype-up" to "performance verification", this Hong Kong AI pioneer, which has the endorsement of the government and top consortiums and is well aware of the needs of government and enterprises, may become the leader of the next round of market.