這次的電話會議一樣內容滿滿，店長這篇改使用會議紀錄內容來表達，更能包含了NBIS管理層對自身業務的信心，另外真的不要再擔心ＡＩ泡沫了，也不用管Michael Burry的賣空言論，即使舊款的GPU也是很搶手的，而且NBIS的折舊是用四年來看而不是其他家的六年．關於業績，也附上Roman Chernin在X上的一篇文章．
Transcript
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4841867-nebius-group-n-v-nbis-q3-2025-earnings-call-transcript
核心亮點
1. 重大合約簽署
Meta 合約公告:
"Today, we are very pleased to announce that we signed another major deal at this time with Meta for approximately $3 billion over the next 5 years."
「今天,我們非常高興地宣布與 Meta 簽署另一項重大交易,金額約 30 億美元,為期 5 年。」
容量限制:
"In fact, the demand for this capacity was overwhelming and the size of the contract was limited to the amount of capacity that we had available, which meansthat if we had more, we could have sold more."
「事實上,對這些容量的需求非常龐大,合約規模受限於我們可用的容量,這意味著如果我們有更多容量,我們可以賣得更多。」
Microsoft 合約回顧:
"This deal comes on top of the Microsoft deal we announced early in September with a contract value between 17.4billionand17.4billionand19.4 billion."
「這筆交易是在我們 9 月初宣布的 Microsoft 交易之上,該合約價值在 174 億至 194 億美元之間。」
2. 財務表現
Q3 營收:
"Q3 group revenue was $146 million, up nearly 355% year-over-year and 39% quarter-over-quarter."
「Q3 集團營收為 1.46 億美元,年增近 355%,季增 39%。」
核心業務表現:
"The core infrastructure business, which accounted for nearly 90% of total revenue, grew 400% year-over-year and 40% sequentially."
「核心基礎設施業務佔總營收近 90%,年增 400%,季增 40%。」
利潤率:
"I'm also pleased to say that adjusted EBITDA margin for the core infrastructure business expanded quarter-over-quarter to nearly 19%."
「我也很高興地說,核心基礎設施業務的調整後 EBITDA 利潤率季增至近 19%。」
年化營收:
"Annualized run rate revenue for the core business at the end of September was $551 million."
「9 月底核心業務的年化營收為 5.51 億美元。」
3. 2025 年度指引
營收指引調整:
"We are tightening our full year group revenue guidance to a range of 500millionto500millionto550 million, and we are currently pacing to the midpoint of that range. This compared to the 450millionto450millionto630 million in our previous guide."
「我們將全年集團營收指引收窄至 5 億至 5.5 億美元區間,目前進度在該區間中點。這相較於先前的 4.5 億至 6.3 億美元指引。」
調整原因:
"The reason we are in the middle and not at the top of that range simply relates to the exact timing of when capacity comes online."
「我們在區間中點而非頂端的原因,僅僅與容量上線的確切時間有關。」
ARR 指引維持:
"We remain well on track to hit our ARR guidance of 900millionto900millionto1.1 billion by the end of 2025."
「我們仍在正軌上,預計在 2025 年底達成 9 億至 11 億美元的 ARR 指引。」
資本支出大幅提升:
"Regarding CapEx, we are raising our 2025 guidance from approximately 2billiontocirca2billiontocirca5 billion."
「關於資本支出,我們將 2025 年指引從約 20 億美元提高至約 50 億美元。」
投資理由:
"This acceleration reflects our strong conviction in the demand outlook and our decision to secure critical infrastructure, including hardware, power, land and key sites."
「這一加速反映了我們對需求前景的強烈信心,以及我們確保關鍵基礎設施的決定,包括硬體、電力、土地和關鍵場址。」
4. 2026 年展望
ARR 目標:
"Based on the strength in demand that we see and our accelerated capacity growth plan, we believe we can achieve annualized run rate revenue ARR of 7billionto7billionto9 billion by the end of 2026."
「基於我們看到的強勁需求和加速的容量增長計劃,我們相信到 2026 年底可以實現 70 億至 90 億美元的年化營收 ARR。」
已簽約比例:
"This new capacity that we are putting in place together with our current capacity that has already been sold and the long-term contracts that we signed with Microsoft and Meta gives us the confidence that we can achieve the 7billionto7billionto9 billion of ARR, of which more than half is already booked."
「我們正在部署的新容量,加上已售出的現有容量以及與 Microsoft 和 Meta 簽署的長期合約,讓我們有信心實現 70 億至 90 億美元的 ARR,其中超過一半已經簽約。」
電力容量目標:
"We expect our contracted power to grow to 2.5 gigawatt contracted. This is up from the 1 gigawatt, which we discussed in our previous earnings call in August."
「我們預計合約電力將增長至 2.5 吉瓦。這比我們在 8 月上次財報電話會議中討論的 1 吉瓦有所增加。」
"Furthermore, we plan to have power connected to our data centers, which means fully built of approximately 800 megawatts to 1 gigawatt by the end of 2026."
「此外,我們計劃在 2026 年底前將約 800 兆瓦至 1 吉瓦的電力連接到我們的數據中心,這意味著完全建成。」
關鍵策略重點
容量是最大瓶頸
CEO 強調:
"Capacity today is the main bottleneck to revenue growth. And we are now working to remove this bottleneck."
「今天,容量是營收增長的主要瓶頸。我們現在正在努力消除這個瓶頸。」
"Once again, we sold out our capacity and our revenue growth was limited only by the capacity that we were able to bring online."
「再一次,我們售罄了所有容量,我們的營收增長僅受限於我們能夠上線的容量。」
三階段投資策略
Arkady 詳細說明:
"When we plan for data center CapEx, there are actually 3 stages there. The first stage is securing the land and power. The second stage is building the data centers themselves, including shell, electrical and cooling equipment, batteries and so on, physical installation, which we call connected power. And the thirdpart is finally deploying the GPUs themselves."
「當我們規劃數據中心資本支出時,實際上有三個階段。第一階段是確保土地和電力。第二階段是建設數據中心本身,包括外殼、電氣和冷卻設備、電池等物理安裝,我們稱之為連接電力。第三部分是最終部署 GPU 本身。」
成本分配:
"First stage, securing land and power. It's pretty cheap. It's around -- again, it depends on the scale, but it's around 1% of total CapEx... The second stage, building the data centers, building connected power is something around, I don't know, 18%, 20%. And the remaining 80%, the main part is for deploying the actualGPUs."
「第一階段,確保土地和電力。這相當便宜。大約是——取決於規模,但大約是總資本支出的 1%...第二階段,建設數據中心、建設連接電力大約是 18%、20%。剩下的 80%,主要部分是用於部署實際的 GPU。」
需求環境
CRO Marc 的觀察:
"I joined the company about 5 months ago, and I've had an extraordinary experience in these past 5 months. It's extraordinary from the standpoint that I've never seen the kind of demand profile that we're experiencing. It is literally accelerating for Nebius."
「我大約 5 個月前加入公司,在過去 5 個月裡有非凡的體驗。從我們正在經歷的需求狀況來看,這是非凡的。我從未見過這樣的需求情況。Nebius 的需求確實在加速。」
管道增長:
"In the past quarter, Q3, we saw pipe gen expand 70% quarter-on-quarter. And we generated $4 billion in pipeline in that quarter. But we were only able to convert a portion of that given to the constraints of our capacity."
「在上個季度 Q3,我們看到管道生成季增 70%。我們在該季度產生了 40 億美元的管道。但由於容量限制,我們只能轉換其中一部分。」
學會說不:
"As a matter of fact, I've learned a new skill, one I don't think many go-to-market professionals have ever had to experience, and that's learning to say no to customers as we routinely sell out and have to actually let them down lightly."
「事實上,我學會了一項新技能,我認為許多市場開發專業人士從未經歷過,那就是學會對客戶說不,因為我們經常售罄,不得不委婉地讓他們失望。」
產品創新
Aether 3.0 平台
Arkady 介紹:
"We released our new enterprise-ready cloud platform version 3.0 called Aether and our new inference platform called Nebius Token Factory. We believe Aether gives organizations the trust, control and simplicity they need to run their most critical AI workloads."
「我們發布了名為 Aether 的新企業級雲平台 3.0 版本,以及名為 Nebius Token Factory 的新推理平台。我們相信 Aether 為組織提供了運行最關鍵 AI 工作負載所需的信任、控制和簡單性。」
Token Factory
Roman 詳細說明:
"Token factory gives vertical AI product builders, ISVs and enterprises a platform to build, we call it Flywheel of applying LLMs and vertical AI use cases at scale, transforming -- we help them to transform open source models into optimized production-ready systems with guaranteed performance and transparent cost perToken."
「Token Factory 為垂直 AI 產品構建者、ISV 和企業提供了一個平台來構建,我們稱之為大規模應用 LLM 和垂直 AI 用例的飛輪,轉換——我們幫助他們將開源模型轉換為優化的生產就緒系統,具有保證的性能和透明的每 Token 成本。」
融資策略
多元化融資來源
CFO Dado 說明:
"In order to support our aggressive growth plans in 2026 and to maintain this pace of growth in 2027, we will be utilizing at least 3 sources: corporate debt, asset-backed financing and equity."
「為了支持我們 2026 年的積極增長計劃並在 2027 年保持這種增長速度,我們將利用至少 3 個來源:企業債務、資產抵押融資和股權。」
ATM 計劃
宣布:
"Tomorrow, November 12, we will be putting in place an at-the-market equity program for up to 25 million Class A shares and plan to file a prospectus supplement."
「明天,11 月 12 日,我們將實施最多 2500 萬 A 類股的市場股權計劃,並計劃提交招股說明書補充文件。」
稀釋敏感性:
"However, we will remain dilution sensitive as we prepare to finance future growth opportunities."
「然而,在我們準備為未來增長機會融資時,我們將保持對稀釋的敏感性。」
資產抵押融資
"We are in the process of raising asset-backed debt, which we'll be able to secure with attractive terms supported by creditworthiness of our largest customers."
「我們正在籌集資產抵押債務,我們將能夠以有吸引力的條款獲得,這得到了我們最大客戶信用的支持。」
客戶案例
AI 原生新創
Marc 介紹:
"We added a number of new customers in Q3, most notably some very disruptive start-ups like Cursor AI, Black Forest Labs and World Labs."
「我們在 Q3 增加了許多新客戶,最值得注意的是一些非常具有顛覆性的新創公司,如 Cursor AI、Black Forest Labs 和 World Labs。」
Cursor AI:
"They're an extraordinarily popular AI-powered code editor that is helping millions of developers to write and debug and optimize their code faster, and they're making great strides into the enterprise."
「他們是一個非常受歡迎的 AI 驅動代碼編輯器,幫助數百萬開發人員更快地編寫、調試和優化代碼,他們在企業市場取得了巨大進展。」
Black Forest Labs:
"Black Forest Labs is an interesting customer that is developing cutting-edge generative AI models, specifically for image and video generation. Their popular FLUX.1 model helps turn text and images into high-quality media-ready visuals."
「Black Forest Labs 是一個有趣的客戶,正在開發尖端的生成式 AI 模型,專門用於圖像和視頻生成。他們流行的 FLUX.1 模型幫助將文本和圖像轉換為高質量的媒體就緒視覺效果。」
GPU 需求
Blackwell 與 Hopper
Marc 分析:
"Demand remains very strong across all types of GPUs. And as we said, we sold out our capacity in Q3, and that's across all types. And we're nearly sold out with respect to Q4."
「所有類型 GPU 的需求仍然非常強勁。正如我們所說,我們在 Q3 售罄了所有容量,這涵蓋所有類型。我們 Q4 的容量也幾乎售罄。」
Hopper 持續需求:
"Talking about the Hoppers, we continue to see extremely positive demand for these chips... as customers come to their renewal for Hoppers or if they're looking to upgrade to, say, Blackwells, in both cases, we're typically selling them immediately and often case -- and often at better pricing than they were previouslypriced."
「談到 Hopper,我們繼續看到對這些芯片的極其積極的需求...當客戶續約 Hopper 或希望升級到 Blackwell 時,在這兩種情況下,我們通常會立即售出,而且通常以比之前更好的價格。」
Blackwell 首發優勢:
"We're also seeing very strong demand for Blackwells. And we're benefiting from the fact that we're one of the first companies to deliver them in the market. In our Israel data center, we launched with B200s. And in our U.K. data center, we launched with B300s."
「我們也看到對 Blackwell 的非常強勁需求。我們受益於我們是市場上首批交付它們的公司之一。在我們的以色列數據中心,我們推出了 B200。在我們的英國數據中心,我們推出了 B300。」
歐洲首發 GB300:
"We're very excited as well that we're launching GB300s. We're the first to do so in Europe, which will be coming online in our Finnish data center later this quarter in December."
「我們也非常興奮地推出 GB300。我們是歐洲第一家這樣做的公司,將在本季度晚些時候 12 月在我們的芬蘭數據中心上線。」
地理擴張
英國市場
Tom 更新:
"We had our official launch as we brought the -- presented the data center to the U.K. market. This is actually a capacity that will be coming online really actually in the next week or so... even in the time since June and now, we've already come close to doubling the capacity that we're bringing on stream."
「我們舉行了正式啟動儀式,向英國市場展示了數據中心。這實際上是將在下週左右上線的容量...即使從 6 月到現在,我們已經接近將上線容量翻倍。」
市場前景:
"We're very bullish actually about the opportunity in the U.K. It's a vibrant AI market. It's probably one of the most dynamic that we see outside of U.S. and China. The government is making a big push to support the growth of the industry."
「我們實際上對英國的機會非常看好。這是一個充滿活力的 AI 市場。這可能是我們在美國和中國以外看到的最具活力的市場之一。政府正在大力推動支持該行業的增長。」
以色列市場
Tom 說明:
"The data center facility that we have there is already fully live. And as I think we've made various references to Marc's mentioned previously, again, that was the capacity that was effectively even presold."
「我們在那裡的數據中心設施已經完全上線。正如我認為我們之前多次提到的,那是實際上已經預售的容量。」
政府支持:
"The government is also doing some interesting things really to stimulate further demand. And so they're actually effectively putting money to subsidize sort of AI start-ups and institutions and helping them to access the compute as a way of getting -- having the growth move faster."
「政府也在做一些有趣的事情來刺激進一步的需求。因此,他們實際上有效地投入資金來補貼 AI 新創公司和機構,幫助他們獲得計算資源,以加快增長。」
風險與挑戰應對
AI 泡沫疑慮
Arkady 回應:
"What we see today, the demand is here, right? And we understand that we are in the center of a once-in-generation AI evolution. Much -- no doubt that much more compute will be needed and much more will be built."
「我們今天看到的,需求就在這裡,對吧?我們理解我們正處於一代一次的 AI 演進的中心。毫無疑問,將需要更多的計算,也將建造更多。」
保守策略:
"Ultimately, we just need to be sure that, a, we are diversified in terms of customers and workloads, and this is actually what our software is basically doing. Second, that we invest conservatively and that we finance our growth responsibly, and we are very much focused on this."
「最終,我們只需要確保,第一,我們在客戶和工作負載方面是多元化的,這實際上是我們的軟體基本上在做的。第二,我們保守投資,負責任地為我們的增長融資,我們非常專注於此。」
利潤率焦點:
"While we're growing rapidly, 5x more a year, we still remain laser focused on maintaining healthy margins and a sustainable business model as a whole, in old days, I would say, healthy unit economics."
「雖然我們快速增長,每年增長 5 倍,但我們仍然專注於維持健康的利潤率和整體可持續的商業模式,用老話說,健康的單位經濟效益。」
供應過剩風險
Arkady 看法:
"First, we strongly believe that the market will still be supply constrained, at least in 2026, means that data center capacity will be the choking point."
「首先,我們堅信市場仍將受到供應限制,至少在 2026 年,這意味著數據中心容量將是瓶頸。」
保守部署:
"We plan our capital spend in those 3 stages, land power, building the shell and facilities and then the GPUs. And this conservative stage approach keeps us from overspending actually and allows us to maintain a healthy financial position."
「我們分三個階段規劃資本支出:土地電力、建設外殼和設施,然後是 GPU。這種保守的階段性方法實際上使我們避免過度支出,並使我們能夠保持健康的財務狀況。」
戰略定位
核心業務焦點
Arkady 強調:
"As busy as we are with these mega deals, our main focus is still to build our own core AI cloud business. We made great progress here with AI native start-ups like Cursor, Black Forest Labs and others. The economics and the cash flow of mega deals are attractive in their own right, but they also enable us to build ourcore AI cloud business faster. This is our real future opportunity."
「儘管我們忙於這些大型交易,但我們的主要焦點仍然是建立我們自己的核心 AI 雲業務。我們在這裡與 Cursor、Black Forest Labs 等 AI 原生新創公司取得了巨大進展。大型交易的經濟效益和現金流本身就很有吸引力,但它們也使我們能夠更快地建立核心 AI 雲業務。這是我們真正的未來機會。」
利潤率優先
Arkady 原則:
"We are very opportunistic here. The demand is there, not only for our everyday deals, but for large mega deals as well. And we'll enter into the deals which provide us with the best margins. We're very much focused on margins and profitability, not only on growth itself and all our decisions actually are derived fromthere."
「我們在這裡非常機會主義。需求就在那裡,不僅是我們的日常交易,還有大型交易。我們將簽署為我們提供最佳利潤率的交易。我們非常專注於利潤率和盈利能力,而不僅僅是增長本身,我們所有的決策實際上都源於此。」
