The first month of 2025 is destined to be turbulent, with Trump’s official inauguration as U.S. President, the Federal Reserve’s first rate meeting of the new year, and the release of key economic data including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI before the meeting. The Chinese New Year holiday at the end of the month adds another layer of complexity. All these events could trigger dramatic fluctuations in the crypto market, requiring advance preparation.
In December, Bitcoin first broke through the $100,000 mark, reaching a high of $108,351 (according to Bitget data), followed by three major drops of over 10,000 points. This roller coaster ride shifted market sentiment from FOMO to caution.So, will these major financial events in January ignite the market and push Bitcoin to break through to $120,000? We’ve compiled a comprehensive January crypto financial calendar covering both crypto and traditional financial events, with detailed analysis of key events and their underlying logic to help you navigate through the complexity and find your path to wealth.
JANUARY CRYPTO FINANCIAL CALENDAR
Key Focus:
- Federal Reserve Rate Decision
- Trump’s Presidential Inauguration
- U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls Data
- U.S. CPI
- Chinese New Year
A Look Back at Bitcoin’s January Performance
Before diving into the details, let’s review historical January performance of Bitcoin as the crypto market’s bellwether. Here’s the data statistics from TradingView and other third-party platforms:
Bitcoin Historical January Returns
(Created by: CoinRank)
Looking at the chart above, historically, Bitcoin has had more down months than up months in January, with a ratio of 4:6 over 10 years. However, most declining years saw minimal drops – 2015, 2016, and 2018 all fell less than 1%, essentially flat. Notably, in the second year after halving events (2017 and 2021), Bitcoin’s January returns were positive, demonstrating the strong impact of halving cycles.
REVIEW OF MAJOR EVENTS DIRECTLY IMPACTING THE CRYPTO MARKET
- January 8 – Fed FOMC Minutes
The Federal Reserve FOMC minutes are detailed reports released after each monetary policy meeting, documenting discussions, decision-making processes, and economic assessments. These minutes are typically published about three weeks after each meeting.
The minutes have significant reference value for investors, economists, and policy analysts as they provide insights into Fed decision-makers’ views on economic conditions, future policy directions, and financial markets.
Given Powell’s hawkish comments at the December meeting that caused market declines, these minutes are particularly significant. Market participants will be scrutinizing them for insights into the hawkish stance and potential rate cuts at the end of the month, potentially triggering significant market volatility.
- January 10 – U.S. December Non-Farm Payrolls
Last month’s non-farm payrolls showed stronger-than-expected growth, with unemployment rising as anticipated to 4.2% and job additions of 227,000 – the largest increase since April. This data strengthened market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to December’s rate reduction and Bitcoin’s subsequent rise to new highs.
Current market expectations suggest moderate figures, with unemployment holding around 4.2% and job additions near 200,000. Such numbers might not prevent the Fed from pausing rate cuts this month unless the data significantly disappoints, forcing Fed officials to reconsider their monetary policy stance.
If the data meets expectations, the crypto market might see initial gains followed by a decline, creating short-term volatility. Risk management will be crucial during this period.
