評：凱瑞在日本的演講

評：凱瑞在日本的演講

 

Unlike the previous reports of US think tanks or high-ranking US officers’ statements and addresses, John Kerry ’s speech in Tokyo Tech not only lacked strict logic but also showed no relations between targets and measures.  In all, it was loose and mediocre.
Kerry seemed to waste many paragraphs describing his private connections with Japan, which was necessary for a diplomat to show his good will, yet he confused the audiences about the real intention of the speech.
In addition, he mentioned many Asian countries as if he was anywhere other than in Japan.  The definition of “we” was thus confusing. 
Balancing Xi Jin-ping’s China Dream, Kerry emphasized the American Dream and the Pacific Dream, which he failed to relate to Japan. 
Could it be possible that Kerry ’s staff gave him the wrong manuscript, which was meant for Beijing?  Could it be possible that Kerry had no idea of what he should say in Japan and ended up murmuring “one thing is certain: We are united … we simply must work together”?
Kerry ’s murmuring alarms us.  It somewhat confirms the concern of Hisahiko Okazaki, a Japanese senior diplomat, that the US might by-pass Tokyo and deal with Beijing directly and secretly as she did in 1971.  If that is true, the gift, Okazaki worries, might be either Korea or Taiwan.    Revised at 1330

閱讀凱瑞對日本大學生的這篇演講，並未如過去美國官員演講或智庫報告般的層次鋪陳與邏輯嚴謹，一點都沒有。好像是中國人幕僚寫的──沒有立體感、沒有層次、沒有邏輯，只有論斷（我要）。這完全不像美國人的手路，反而見其散亂。
凱瑞似乎講太多無關重要的場面話，以及他國，以及不知道是美日或美中的「我們」。也講戰爭失去太多性命，暗示不會打仗。在日本講「美國夢」與「太平洋夢」，且挑明其針對的是「中國夢」──與日本無關。
在民主先進國家日本，強調普世價值與意識型態是不當的，因為沒有必要。這也表示凱瑞根本不知道要對日本講什麼？只能說One thing is certain: We are united.  We simply must work together.
只能說，是不是凱瑞的幕僚給錯稿子？
目前可以判斷的是：
1.　凱瑞的器宇有限。
2.　凱瑞（或歐巴馬）想大幅翻轉更希拉蕊的戰略規劃，但時間還不夠。
這反而令人擔心！看來岡崎久彥的看法或許是對的：美國可能重演1971年的戲碼，跳過日本直接與中國接觸。

而籌碼就是朝鮮或台灣。