誰載Y-12來釣魚？ What carried Y-12?
Beijing’s Y-12, the twin-engine turboprop utility aircraft used by both China Marine Surveillance and PLA Air Force, made her first fly-over above the Senkakus on December 13th, and her second on 22nd.
Sankei Shimbun observed the influence from Jiang Tse-ming, a hard-liner toward Japan, and concluded that Xi Jin-ping is likely to stay hawkish toward Tokyo.
Such fly-overs might happen from time to time.
One of the questions is: Where the Y-12 was from? The report from the “Radio France Internationale” indicated that the Y-12 took off from and flew back to its Jou-shan Base. It was reasonable considering Y-12’s maximum range 1,340 km.
However, according to the track plot released by the Joint Staff, JSDF, the Y-12 took off and landed at the sea. There was no airbase at sea. A possible scenario was that a big vessel carried Y-12. But what was the ship? An amphibious warfare ship, or the aircraft carrier Liao-ning of PLA Navy?
If Chinese Marine Surveillance Y-12 could take off from large vessel heres, it could replay the scenario off the east coast of Okinawa. Was the operation military or civil -- PLA’s military vessel carrying civil planes of Marine Surveillance?
Only the scenario of PLA behind the Marine Surveillance Y-12 could explain the phenomenon that 8 JSDF F-15 scrambled eccentrically for a tiny turboprop utility aircraft on December 13.
By the way, JSDF did not declare the report and the track plot in terms of the first Senkakus fly-over by Y-12. Why? revised at 1645
自從12月13日中國的政府飛機Y-12「哈爾濱」（解放軍空軍與海監共用機種）首度飛進釣魚台上空之後，22日，又再度飛抵釣魚台。[1]
第二次了，輿論觀察江澤民持續的影響力，認為習近平將採對日強硬路線。飛機恐將無日無之。
有趣的是，飛機從何而來？
報導說是舟山基地出發，從Y-12（哈爾濱）最大飛行航程為1,340 km，當然有可能。
但看日本防衛省的航跡圖卻是無來由的，海上出現、海上消失。[2] Y-12既非水上飛機，是哪一艘船載過來的？難不成是遼寧載哈爾濱？
假使，海監可以從船艦起飛偵查機，當然可以從沖繩東方做一樣的事情。另外，也可能代表軍艦（解放軍）載運民用政府飛機。或許解放軍在後的「想定」才能解釋13日8架F-15的緊急攔截。
對了，日本防衛省並未公布12月13日Y-12的飛越，不知為什麼。
[1] http://www.chinese.rfi.fr/%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD/20121223-%E4%B8%AD%E5%9B%BD%E9%A3%9E%E6%9C%BA%E5%86%8D%E6%AC%A1%E9%A3%9E%E6%8A%B5%E9%92%93%E9%B1%BC%E5%8F%B0%E6%B5%B7%E5%9F%9F-%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%AC%E9%A3%9E%E6%9C%BA%E7%B4%A7%E6%80%A5%E5%8D%87%E7%A9%BA%E6%8B%A6%E6%88%AA accessed on 20121224
[2] http://www.mod.go.jp/js/Press/press2012/press_pdf/p20121222.pdf accessed on 20121224
