今年股市預期的變化 | CNN商業

重點在於關注FED行動、政策、收益還有情緒。

個股基於基本面來投資。

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Cooling inflation data coupled with a softening but still-strong labor market has raised investors’ hopes that the Fed could manage to continue lowering inflation without triggering a recession.
通脹數據的降溫以及依然強勁但稍有放緩的勞動市場，讓投資者對於聯邦儲備系統能夠在不引發衰退的情況下繼續降低通脹率抱有希望。

That’s a far cry from the beginning of this year, when the labor market was piping hot, inflation remained far above the Fed’s 2% target, the central bank’s interest rate trajectory was even more unclear and investors had no idea three regional banks would collapse.
這與今年初形成了鮮明對比，當時勞動力市場火熱，通脹率遠高於美聯儲的2%目標，央行的利率走勢更加不明確，投資者也不知道會有三家地區銀行倒閉。

We were not overly cautious going into this year, but we were also not like, ‘hey, this is gonna be a great market,’ because we had to be concerned with where we were in the tightening cycle and nobody actually knew. And when the wind is not at your back, you don’t want to be amping up your equity exposure.
我們進入這一年時並不過於謹慎，但也不是說「嘿，這將是個很好的市場」，因為我們必須關注我們在緊縮周期中的位置，而且沒有人真正知道。當風不利於你時，你不想增加你的股票投資。

To me, it’s all about a handful of things that we have to watch. It’s about what the Fed does. It’s all about policy. It’s all about earnings. And then it’s all about sentiment.
對我來說，這一切都關乎幾個要點，我們必須密切關注。關乎聯邦儲備系統的行動。關乎政策。關乎盈利。然後，關乎情緒。

Is it fair to say that you’re more bullish now?
你現在更看好嗎？

I’m more constructive, because going into this year, it was very unclear where we were in the tightening cycle, or where inflation was gonna end up. But we’ve certainly seen that what the Fed has done is working, and there is this possibility of a soft landing.
我更正向看待，因為進入今年時，我們對於緊縮周期的位置以及通脹的結果都非常不清楚。但我們確實看到聯邦儲備系統所採取的措施正在發揮作用，並且存在著軟著陸的可能性。

One of the most important things that I’ve learned in my career is never to fight the Fed either way: Don’t fight the Fed when you have the wind at your back, and when it’s in your face, don’t be overly bullish.
在我的職業生涯中，我學到的最重要的一點是永遠不要與聯邦儲備系統對抗：當你背風時，不要與聯邦儲備系統對抗；當它對你不利時，不要過於樂觀。

There are real opportunities underneath the surface of what’s been driving the market so far. Nothing goes to the sky forever, but I think underneath it, it’s a different story.
市場上所推動的背後，有真正的機會存在。沒有什麼能永遠一直往上飛，但我認為在其背後，有著不同的故事。

The wider broadening and the rotation out of tech to cyclicals is occurring because I think there is a general buy in that (idea that a) soft landing is possible. And I think that’s why the market is broadening, and generally market participants are more constructive and taking their wins in technology and rotating. That’s pretty smart.
科技股向周期性股票的廣泛擴展和轉移是因為我認為普遍存在著軟著陸是可能的購買觀點。我認為這就是市場擴大的原因，並且市場參與者普遍更加積極，他們在科技股中獲利後進行輪換。這是相當明智的。

Anything related to AI is premature.
任何與人工智慧相關的事物都還處於早期階段。

If you’re not buying based on fundamentals and knowledge of something you’re probably going to get your head handed to you.
如果你不基於基本面和對某事的了解而進行購買，你很可能會吃虧。

You’ve got to stick to real earnings, earnings growth, guidance and look at all the basics of investing. Anytime you buy into the hype of something which isn’t real yet, it’s like going to Las Vegas.
你必須堅持實際收益、收益增長、指引，並關注投資的基本面。每當你投資於尚未實現的熱潮中，就像去拉斯維加斯一樣。

新聞來源: CNN (#國際新聞)

原文網址:

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/07/24/business/premarket-stocks-trading-market-expectations-2023/index.html