俄羅斯將以「台灣模式」處理阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞　■雲程譯

俄羅斯將以「台灣模式」處理阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞 　■REGNUM雲程譯

獨立國協中高加索部門的主席米哈爾‧安德洛夫（Mikhail Alexandrov）提出：在發生科索沃的先例後，俄羅斯將以「台灣模式」（the Taiwan way）處理其與阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞的關係。安德洛夫在「俄羅斯與高加索國家問題──對主權的展望」的圓桌會議上提議，這是最恰當的方案（scenario）。他提醒，歐盟在台灣派有商務代表，美國也曾在此島上部署軍事基地。

同一時間，安德洛夫堅持，俄羅斯不會正式承認阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞，與德涅斯特河沿岸共和國（Transdnestr）。他認為，由於莫斯科並未屈膝於科索沃的片面宣佈獨立，故承認這些領土是不合邏輯的。他並未排除選擇「台灣模式」的可能性，俄羅斯將開啟派駐代表團到阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞。安德洛夫預測，將與這些領土擴展經濟合作。

若喬治亞加入北約組織，則正式承認阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞的議題將會非常緊急。現在，提比里西（Tbilisi）傾向加入北約，若此事成真，俄羅斯將承認阿布哈吉亞與南奧塞吉亞，並派遣軍隊進駐此地。

安德洛夫繼續說，喬治亞目前已到了「不可折返點」[1]（the Rubicon）了，若非加入北約，就是損失領土。

他論及一些喬治亞政治人物，提出喬治亞退出獨立國協的議題，「他們不瞭解，喬治亞退出獨立國協將自動鬆綁俄羅斯的雙手」。

Russia will deal with Abkhazia and South Ossetia “the Taiwan way:”  　■REGNUM

After the Kosovo precedent, Russia will treat its relations with Abkhazia and South Ossetia “the Taiwan way,” argues Mikhail Alexandrov, head of the Caucasus Department at the CIS Institute. Speaking at a roundtable discussion “Russia and the Caucasian Agglomeration of Problems — Perspectives of the Parade of Sovereignties,” Alexandrov called this scenario most adequate. He reminded that the European Union has its trade mission on Taiwan, and the US have deployed on the island a military base.

At the same time, Alexandrov contends, Russia will not go as far as to formally recognize Abkhazia, South Ossetia, and Transdnestr. In his words, recognition of these territories is illogical whereas Moscow does not bow to the unilateral proclamation of Kosovo's independence. He does not exclude that, choosing the “Taiwan way,” Russia will open its missions in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Economic cooperation with these territories will be extended, Alexandrov forecasts.

The issue of official recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia will become urgent if Georgia joins the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Now Tbilisi has taken a course towards joining NATO, and if this happens, Russia will recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia and bring its troops into their territories. Georgia is now before the Rubicon: it is either to [refrain from] joining NATO, or lose the territories, Alexandrov maintains.

He argues that position of some Georgian politicians who raise the issue of Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS is shortsighted. “They don't understand that Georgia's withdrawal from the CIS will automatically untie Russia's hands.”

[1] 西洋諺語中，跨越「盧比孔河」（Crossing the Rubicon）是比喻謹慎的進行到「不可折返點」（point of no return）。此諺語來自於凱撒在西元前49年侵略古羅馬，其軍隊違法跨越「盧比孔河」，引起無可避免的衝突。單用「盧比孔河」，就是指「不可折返點」。