持續施壓，X波段雷達移到朝鮮

持續施壓，X波段雷達移到朝鮮

【Comment】

The US deployed SBX-1, sea-based X band radar platform, to Korea peninsula lately, besides the over flights of the SK by B-52s, a B-2 and F-22s.  The US moves suggested that she did not buy Kim Jong-un’s nuclear threat.
A BBC journalist analyzed that Kim’s threat is merely rhetoric.  Kim’s purpose is to strengthen his weak domestic power.
Even so, the risk of war is still high.  If NK realizes her rhetoric threat invalid, which might jeopardizeKim’s weak power, Kim is forced to upgrade the threat. 
On the other hand, it would be a tough decision for the US, or UN, to revert the war against NK.  But Will Beijing allow the US to approach the Yalu River, as they faced in 1950?
It is still not clear how Beijing would reap some profit on the Senkakus in the crisis of Korean Peninsula.
It is also uncertain whether the US, China and both Koreas share the common interest to keep Kim in power.    revised at 1430

 

分析：朝鮮為什麼發出嚴厲戰爭威脅？◎BBC（2013.03.30）http://www.bbc.co.uk/zhongwen/trad/world/2013/03/130330_us_korea_berger.shtml

在代號為「鷂鷹」的美韓聯合軍事演習中，美國和韓國一共派遣了大約4萬名軍人參加，美國的轟炸機、戰鬥機和潛艇也開往朝鮮半島地區，以「加強韓國的安全和備戰狀態」。

華盛頓希望通過這樣的演習向韓國明確表示，美國作為韓國的盟友將會履行武力威懾的安全承諾。

但是，朝鮮似乎對這樣的演習有不同的理解。朝鮮聲稱，這樣的演習是在為突然襲擊朝鮮作掩護和準備。朝鮮對此作出了人們所熟悉的反應：升級的憤怒威脅。

國際媒體對朝鮮緊張局勢最新發展的報道讓許多人感覺到，朝鮮對美韓聯合軍事演習所作出的威脅性回應有些突然，令人感到莫名其妙。事實上，平壤在過去數十年一直嚴厲譴責美韓聯合軍事演習。

朝鮮這次最新反應和過去的不同之處在於，這次威脅更嚴厲，更具體。

言辭威脅

上個月，朝鮮威脅撕毀1953年的停戰協議，並且關閉了在邊界地區供韓朝雙方聯繫的熱線電話。朝鮮隨後宣佈提高了導彈部隊的作戰水平，並且把目標對準了美國在關島和夏威夷的軍事基地。

朝鮮所宣佈的最為蠻橫的措施是，保留對美國和韓國進行先發制人核打擊的權利。

雖然朝鮮的確在切斷板門店電話熱線的問題上採取了切實行動，但是人們很難相信他們會把其他的威脅付諸實施，至少在短期內不會。

作出這樣判斷的一個理由是，金正恩嚴厲的措辭主要是說給國內聽的。這位年輕的朝鮮最高領導人被他的已故父親迅速提拔到朝鮮人民軍司令官的位置，而在那之前他並無建樹。嚴厲挑戰朝鮮的敵人會有利於他鞏固自己的軍政地位。

大多數分析人士認為，平壤目前還不可能具備把核彈頭裝在運載火箭上對美國發動攻擊的技術能力。

但是，朝鮮最近發射運載火箭和進行核試驗的行動顯示朝鮮急切希望自己在這方面取得技術進展。

也許我們可以把平壤發出的嚴厲戰爭威脅解釋為主要出於國內政治目的，但是朝鮮的不安全感完全可能是真實的。

站在西方的立場來看，擔心軍事演習會成為發動突然襲擊的掩護可能是無法理解的。但是對於具有「先軍思想」和堅持自主原則的朝鮮來說，聯合軍演的真實目的是值得懷疑的。

此外，朝鮮自己曾經在歷史上以軍事演習為掩護發動了真實的攻擊。1950年6月，朝鮮軍隊在軍事演習的掩護下向38線大規模推進，許多參加演習的部隊在演習過程中突然進攻漢城，觸發了朝鮮戰爭。

誤判危險

曾有美國政府官員在私下表示，華盛頓和平壤之間有關軍事演習的目的存在著巨大差異。

美國總統克林頓就曾多次取消年度「協作精神」軍事演習，以緩解朝鮮的擔憂，為有關朝鮮核計劃的談判創造條件。

就目前來看，真正的危險並不是大規模的戰爭或核攻擊，而是誤判。

朝鮮目前仍然在不斷地尋找新的威脅方式，發出新的威脅，一方面試圖鞏固當權者在國內的政治地位，另一方面也希望美國能像當年克林頓總統那樣撤銷軍事演習。

但是，美國並不買賬，反而向朝鮮叫板，繼續軍演，並且在軍演中出動了先進的轟炸機。

人們注意到，這樣的對峙是在美朝之間沒有任何常規接觸的情況下發生的。如果這種對峙狀態繼續下去，任何一方發生誤判的危險都在上升。

朝鮮可能錯誤地解讀美國未來採取的行動，認為這是對朝鮮政權做出的急迫而致命的威脅，從而決定採取先發制人的行動。此外，朝鮮可能在言辭威脅屢屢受挫的情況下感覺自己的言辭威脅已經無效，轉而採取可能與言辭相匹配的行動。

緩解目前對峙的出路非常有限，華盛頓與平壤之間的對話不大可能促使朝鮮放棄發展核武器計劃。

但是，有關朝鮮半島安全的對話，包括有關軍事演習問題的對話，有可能幫助避免進一步的誤解和誤判，也可以避免朝鮮只能聽到美國僅僅為了對韓國表示承諾而發出的強硬聲音。

與此同時，美國應該小心對待那些為向盟友宣示安全承諾，但是可能加劇朝鮮不安全感的行動。例如，在該地區保持核軍事能力的行動很可能會在「鷂鷹」軍演結束後不必要地延長誤判的風險。

 

U.S. moves warship, sea-based radar to watch North Korea◎CNN（2013.03.31）http://edition.cnn.com/2013/04/01/world/asia/us-north-korea-radar/index.html

Seoul, South Korea (CNN) -- The U.S. Navy is moving a warship and a sea-based radar platform closer to the North Korean coast in order to monitor that country's military moves, including possible new missile launches, a Defense Department official said Monday.

The decision to move at least one ship, the destroyer USS John S. McCain, and the oil rig-like SBX-1 are the first of what may be other naval deployments, CNN has learned.

They follow weeks of belligerent rhetoric from North Korea, including threats to use nuclear weapons.

The United States and South Korea have gone ahead with joint military exercises despite the threats, and South Korea warned Monday that any provocative moves from North Korea would trigger a strong response "without any political considerations."

The United States has bolstered the exercises with shows of force that included overflights by nuclear-capable B-2 stealth bombers, massive Cold War-era B-52s and F-22 Raptor stealth fighters.

"If there is any provocation against South Korea and its people, there should be a strong response in initial combat without any political considerations," South Korean President Park Geun-hye said at a meeting with senior defense and security officials, according to her office.

Her comments came after North Korea rattled off fresh volleys of bombastic rhetoric over the weekend, declaring that it had entered a "state of war" with the South and labeling the U.S. mainland a "boiled pumpkin," vulnerable to attack.

The two Koreas are technically still at war after their conflict in the early 1950s ended in a truce not a peace treaty.

The secretive regime of Kim Jong Un has delivered a steady stream of verbal attacks against South Korea and the United States in recent weeks, including the threat of a nuclear strike.

It has lashed out at the U.S.-South Korean military drills currently under way and at the tougher U.N. sanctions that were slapped on it after its latest nuclear test in February.

On Monday, Pentagon spokesman George Little warned against connecting the ship deployment to recent tensions on the Korean Peninsula.

"I would urge everyone to disconnect this ship deployment from recent military exercises in South Korea.  We have regular ship movements in the Asia-Pacific region and we use our ship movements for any number of purposes," he told CNN's Christiane Amanpour.

Analysts have expressed heavy skepticism that the North has the military capabilities to follow through on many of its melodramatic threats.

But concerns remain that it could carry out a localized attack on South Korea, as it did in November 2010 when it shelled Yeongpyeong Island, killing four people.

Displays of strength

The United States has sought to show its willingness to defend its South Korean ally by drawing attention to displays of its military strength during the drills taking place in South Korea.

Washington's recent announcements concerning practice flights over South Korea by B-52 bombers and B-2 stealth bombers, both of which can carry both conventional and nuclear weapons, have not been lost on Pyongyang, which has described them as acts of U.S. hostility.

There was no immediate reaction on North Korean state media Monday to the U.S. statement saying the stealth fighters, F-22 Raptors, were sent to the main U.S. Air Force Base in South Korea to support air drills in the annual Foal Eagle training exercises there.

U.S. and South Korean officials have been trying to strike a balance between acknowledging that the North's rhetoric is cause for concern and at the same time playing down the severity of the threat.

Park said Monday that she was "viewing the threat from North Korea in a serious manner."

But a senior U.S. Defense Department official said late last week that there were "no indications at this point that it's anything more than warmongering rhetoric."

And Little, the Pentagon spokesman said Monday that recent U.S. activities with South Korea "have been about alliance assurance, about ensuring them that we are there to protect them."

"We haven't seen any kind of troop movements on the North Korean side that would indicate imminent military action. So we think that things may be dialing down just a bit on the Korean Peninsula, at least we hope so," he said.

South Korea has noted that scores of its workers have continued in recent days to enter and leave the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a joint economic cooperation zone between the two Koreas situated on the North's side of the border.

That is despite Pyongyang cutting a key military hotline on the border and threatening to shut down the complex.

Moscow and Beijing call for calm

The heightened tensions have prompted North Korea's traditional allies, China and Russia, to urge the different sides to keep a lid on the situation.

"Moscow expects all parties to exercise as much responsibility and restraint as possible in light of North Korea's latest statements," the Russian foreign ministry said Saturday according to Russian state broadcaster Russia Today.

China, which expressed frustration over Pyongyang's most recent nuclear test, also called for calm.

"We hope relevant parties can work together to turn around the tense situation in the region," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei said Friday, describing peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula as "a joint responsibility."

But the coming weeks appear laced with potential for more bouts of saber-rattling.

North Korean delegates are currently gathered in Pyongyang for the Supreme People's Assembly, the country's rubber stamp parliament.

And April 15 is the anniversary of the birth of Kim Il Sung, the nation's founder and the grandfather of Kim Jong Un. That day, the biggest national holiday in North Korea, is usually marked by large-scale parades.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-South Korean military exercises that have already stirred so much ire from the North are due to continue until the end of the month.

Some analysts have noted that Pyongyang has carried out some sort of military provocation within weeks of every South Korean presidential inauguration.

Park, the current president, took office on February 25, five weeks ago.

"You can't put it past them the idea that they are ... trying to establish a new equilibrium in which they are accepted as a nuclear weapons state," Victor Cha, former director of Asian affairs for the U.S. National Security Council and now a Georgetown University professor, said about North Korea.