從Ericsson與Nokia看台灣網通設備產業現狀
- Ericsson跟Nokia皆表示已經看到北美市場復甦
- Bead法案（美國網通基建法案）作為潛在上行加分項，有機會在2025、2026發酵
- Wifi 7 及 DOCSIS 4.0 標準換代，帶動網通設備更新需求
透過Nokia 跟Ericsson來觀察網通設備業展望
根據TEJ整理，全球網通設備市佔率排名，1. 華為 2. Nokia 3. Ericsson
台灣網通業者幾乎都已經選擇美系靠攏了，所以排除中系華為不看，我們透過Nokia 跟Ericsson來觀察網通設備業展望。
Nokia 於 2024-10-17 法說會表示：
北美市場表現強勁
“Fixed networks grew 9% in the quarter, while IP networks grew 6%. Originally, both saw strong growth in North America, as the inventory digestion is now largely behind us and operator deployment plans have solidified. Demand trends in NI continue to improve with solid order intake growth, and a book-to-bill above one.”
「固定網路業務（光纖、ＦＷＡ相關）本季度增長了9%，而IP網路業務（路由器、交換器相關）增長了6%。兩者在北美市場都表現強勁，因為庫存消化的問題基本上已經解決，運營商的部署計劃也已經確定。NI 的需求趨勢持續改善，訂單量穩定成長，訂單出貨比超過 1。」
印度明年業績有機會回升
“Vodafone Idea obviously is a new deal for us. And also the investments of the two other leading operators in India this year have been significantly lower than last year. And there are reasons to believe that they would also start recovering. So clearly India will be one of our growth drivers next year.”
「Vodafone Idea（一家印度電信運營商）是我們的一個新交易。此外，今年印度另外兩家主要運營商的投資明顯低於去年。有理由相信，他們的投資將開始恢復。因此，印度將是我們明年的增長驅動因素之一。」
第一個開始衰退的北美市場，已經恢復成長，這是個好兆頭
“And then from a geographical point of view, an extremely encouraging sign is that the momentum is picking up strongest in North America, because that was also the first market that started to weaken when the cycle turned about a year and a half, two years ago. And now it seems to be driving growth also. We actually had double-digit growth in North America in all units of NI.”
「從地理角度來看，極為令人鼓舞的跡象是北美市場的增長勢頭最強，因為大約一年半、兩年前週期轉折時，北美是首先開始疲軟的市場。而現在，它似乎也在推動增長。我們實際上在北美的所有NI單位中都實現了兩位數的增長。」
Bead法案，是潛在上行機會，2024Q4可能有少部分資金發放，主要預期會在2025跟2026
BEAD is coming.
Everybody knows that it's coming more slowly than people were hoping a year or two years ago. The U.S. administration is acknowledging it. They have been slow in the allocation of the funds. But now the good news is that it is happening. I think the number of states that have opened a grant window is now six. All states have this so-called Volume 1 approved. Most states have also Volume 2 approved. And then the next step is that they open the grant windows. And as I said, six windows have done it. And it currently seems, in case you are interested in details, is that Louisiana will be the state that will be first moving to really releasing the funds. And once the funds get released, that's when then there is an opportunity for us to convert that into order intake.
「BEAD 正在來臨。每個人都知道它的推進速度比一兩年前人們期望的要慢。美國政府也承認了這一點。他們在資金分配上進展緩慢。但好消息是，這確實正在進行。我認為目前已經有六個州開放了資助窗口。所有州的第一批資金（Volume 1）已經獲批，大部分州的第二批資金（Volume 2）也已經獲批。下一步就是開放資助窗口。正如我所說，已有六個窗口開放。據目前的情況來看，路易斯安那州將是第一個真正釋放資金的州。一旦資金釋放，這將是我們將其轉化為訂單機會的時候。」
歐洲及其他地區表現不佳
"Other regions showed declines with exception of Europe, which showed 1% growth. However, this was entirely due to Nokia Technologies, which is fully reported in this region. And excluding Nokia Technologies net sales in Europe would have declined by approximately 7%."
「其他地區均出現銷售下滑，唯有歐洲例外，增長了1%。然而，這完全是因為Nokia Technologies 的業績，而該部門的收入全部計入該地區。如果不計入 Nokia Technologies 的淨銷售額，歐洲的銷售實際上將下降約7%。」
Ericsson 於 2024-10-17 法說會表示：
整體產業仍然疲弱，但北美地區已見成長
"So, despite the continuing challenges in the overall RAN market, our Q3 results really show the underlying strength in our business. And we're, of course, encouraged by the continued delivery strength we saw in North America.
We expect our network sales to stabilize year over year during Q4, driven by the continued good growth and progress we're making in North America, but we anticipate further pressure in enterprise near term as we focus on the more profitable segments."
「儘管整體 RAN 市場持續面臨挑戰，我們的第三季業績確實顯示出業務的內在實力。我們當然對北美持續強勁的交付感到鼓舞。我們預計第四季的網路銷售年增率持平，這得益於我們在北美市場的持續增長和進展，但我們預計企業業務在短期內將面臨更大的壓力，因為我們將專注於更具盈利性的細分市場。」
歐洲和拉丁美洲業績持平
"In Europe and Latin America, sales increased slightly and grew by 1%, as growth in Europe was partially offset by a decline in Latin America, where we had some footprint losses."
「在歐洲和拉丁美洲，銷售略微增長，年增長 1%，歐洲的增長部分被拉丁美洲的下降抵消，因為我們在拉美失去了一些市場份額。」
印度市場在高速成長後，回到正常水準，因為基期關係，使得業績大幅衰退
"In Southeast Asia, Oceania and India, sales decreased by 43% following a normalization and the following, I would say, even an expected normalization in India compared to the record pace 5G rollout of last year."
「在東南亞、大洋洲和印度，銷售下降了 43%，這是因為去年印度 5G 大規模推出後的正常化，我會說這是一個預期中的正常化。」
綜合以上，網通設備產業的現狀是：
北美正在復甦、印度明年有機會復甦、歐洲還不清楚。
大家期待已久的Bead法案，有機會在2024Q4部分發放資金，2025、2026擴大發放。
另外關於網通業的標準換代，WIFI 7到處都有人在講了，因此這邊整理一下另一個 DOCSIS 4.0：
DOCSIS 4.0 預計 2025 逐步發酵
DOCSIS，簡單說就是一種可以用電視線(同軸電纜 cable)提供網路的技術，不需要再另外拉新線路，雖然在速度跟穩定度其實都輸光纖(Fiber)，但是因為同軸電纜過去已經被廣泛鋪設，考量不用重新鋪設光纖線路，可以大幅節省成本；另外有些地區因為工程進度，現在也還沒有光纖線路，因此同軸電纜在美國還是有一定比例的使用者。
根據Nielson研究，2022年有線電視大約佔美國收視率3成。另一個數據則顯示，有線電視訂戶，每年大約剪線5%。
儘管美國有線電視業者持續被侵蝕，但目前還是有一定數量的使用者。
也正是因為這樣的生存危機，迫使美國有線電視業者加速DOCSIS 4.0的換代升級。
DOCSIS 4.0 相較於其前代技術 DOCSIS 3.1 提供了相當大的提升，最高可達 10 Gbps 的下載速度和 6 Gbps 的上傳速度，在短距離內提供接近光纖的上下載速，這對於大多數家用和中小型企業來說，已經足夠應對日常網路需求。
在面對高速網路被光纖侵蝕，低速網路被ＦＷＡ（固定無線接入）侵蝕的狀況下，美國有線電視業者必須加速採用DOCSIS 4.0，提升網路速度體驗，才能減緩消費者剪線潮。
跟台灣業者比較相關的是中磊。已經有與北美營運商接洽開案，預計2025年下半會發酵放量。
